Real estate stocks, which fell 7.37% on March 15, rose sharply on March 16.
On March 16, A-Shares rose strongly in the afternoon. As of the closing, the Shanghai index rose 3.48%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 4.02%, the gem index rose 5.2%, and the real estate stocks rose in the afternoon. Among them, the “share price follows the policy” of real estate stocks violently turned red. According to the data, as of the close, the real estate development sector rose by 3.39%, 111 stocks rose and 5 stocks fell.
According to Xinhua news agency, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting on March 16 to study the current economic situation and capital market problems. The content mentioned that with regard to real estate enterprises, it is necessary to timely study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution solutions, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model.
Guan Rongxue, an analyst at Zhuge housing search data research center, told the Huaxia times that this clear requirement will boost the confidence of the real estate market to a certain extent, so it can not be ruled out that it will play a certain role in boosting the improvement of real estate stocks; However, the phenomenon that real estate stocks turn red does not rule out that it is a normal change phenomenon under the market adjustment and recovery.
on March 16, 3, the peak turns around
At the close of March 15, the stock market was almost “lost all over the market”, and it was difficult for real estate stocks to survive, falling sharply for two consecutive trading days. According to wind data, at the close of March 15, the A-share real estate development sector fell 7.37%, and the real estate sector in Hong Kong stocks fell 6.93%.
As of the closing on March 15, only Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) market value of A-Shares exceeded 100 billion, which were 176.1 billion yuan, 164.2 billion yuan and 101.2 billion yuan respectively. The value of 38 real estate stock markets exceeded 10 billion yuan and 53 real estate stock markets was less than 5 billion yuan. Among 134 stocks, only Sundy Land Investment Co.Ltd(600077) , Black Peony (Group) Co.Ltd(600510) 2 stocks rose.
The continuous decline of real estate stocks has also further reduced the market value of real estate enterprises. According to the data of Kerui securities, as of the closing on March 14, the number of listed real estate enterprises with a market value of more than 100 billion has decreased from 11 at the beginning of 2021 to 7.
At the close of March 14, the market value of 88 sample real estate enterprises further decreased by 7.3% compared with the beginning of the year, a total decrease of RMB 1958 billion, a decrease of 27% compared with the market value on the first trading day of 2021. Specifically, only Sun Hung Kai, China Resources Land and CNOOC real estate have a market value of more than 200 billion yuan, and there are only seven listed real estate enterprises with a market value of more than 100 billion yuan, a decrease of one compared with the beginning of the year. In addition to the above three, there are Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Longhu group, Vanke Real Estate and China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) .
But some people drink soup and eat noodles, while others drink and eat meat. In the afternoon of March 16, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rose sharply, and real estate stocks continued to make efforts. In the intraday Hong Kong stock market, China Olympic Park and China Jinmao rose by more than 15%; The A-share market Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure Co.Ltd(000965) , Tahoe Group Co.Ltd(000732) and other trading limits, Vanke rose 5.41%.
It is reported that as of the closing on March 16, the real estate development sector rose by 3.39%, 111 stocks rose and 5 stocks fell Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure Co.Ltd(000965) , Sundy Land Investment Co.Ltd(600077) , Macrolink Culturaltainment Development Co.Ltd(000620) increased by more than 10%, followed by Tahoe Group Co.Ltd(000732) , Suzhou New District Hi-Tech Industrial Co.Ltd(600736) , Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co.Ltd(600684) , Zhongtian Financial Group Company Limited(000540) , with an increase of more than 9%.
what happened
Before the twists and turns, what happened to make the real estate “fall endlessly”? The market generally believes that it is related to changes in the international environment and the downward situation of the market.
In February 2022, the people’s Bank of China announced that the medium and long-term loans of households decreased by 45.9 billion yuan, resulting in a rare monthly net decrease in medium and long-term loans. On the other hand, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in February 2022, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses in the first tier cities increased month on month, while the house prices in the second and third tier cities remained unchanged or decreased month on month; The year-on-year increase in the sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses in the first and second tier cities fell or remained the same, and the year-on-year decrease in house prices in the third tier cities.
“Overall, the current market performance of real estate stocks is also a normal phenomenon in the market consolidation stage.” Guan Rongxue, an analyst at Zhuge housing search data research center, said in an interview with Huaxia times, “Affected by factors such as changes in the international environment and repeated epidemics, the performance of the whole stock market has not been very good recently, and the real estate stocks can not be spared. Although the market policy side and credit side have continuously released positive signals some time ago, the high debt repayment pressure of some real estate enterprises can not be covered up, and the tight liquidity is still one of the effects that the market is difficult to improve in an all-round way, and last year Under the impact of the liquidity crisis in some enterprises, the market recovery cycle is long, and then the pain period faced by enterprises is prolonged. “
In fact, the debt side of real estate enterprises is still facing a big test in 2022.
According to the data of Kerui securities, a total of US $16.22 billion of stock bonds of 170 real estate enterprises matured from March to June 2022. From the maturity of RMB bonds, a total of 78.19 billion yuan of bonds matured from March to June, and a total of about 180.9 billion yuan of bonds matured from March to June 2022. Among them, March is the first month for the centralized maturity of corporate bonds, with a total of about 58.9 billion yuan, accounting for 32.6% of the total bonds due in the first half of the year.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) real estate research group also said in its recent research report that the real estate market will follow the chain of sales recovery, investment recovery and credit recovery, but overseas debt may still become a long-term problem for some enterprises.
Guan Rongxue believes that from the perspective of the overall debt amount of the industry, and in addition, enterprises will also be affected by changes in the market environment in terms of project development and subsequent de conversion. The resistance of various supplementary capital channels such as financing and de conversion collection has increased, and real estate enterprises still face certain liquidity pressure.
In addition, Zhang Bo, President of the branch of 58 anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, also told the reporter of Huaxia times that the solvency of real estate enterprises will be improved, especially the situation of borrowing new to repay the old will be increased, and the overall debt risk of the industry will be gradually reduced with the improvement of the financing environment.
market is expected to bottom out and rebound
However, as the saying goes, “the stock market follows the policy”. Since 2022, the real estate industry has successively released recovery signals, involving the relaxation of first home standards, monetized resettlement, purchase restrictions and other means.
According to Xinhua news agency, on March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting to study the current economic situation and capital market problems. The content mentioned that with regard to real estate enterprises, it is necessary to timely study and put forward strong and effective countermeasures to prevent and resolve risks, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model.
Based on this, looking forward to the future, institutions and industry experts agree that there is an opportunity for the market to hit the bottom and rebound.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) real estate research group pointed out in the research report released recently that the problems faced by the real estate industry, such as credit, delivery and sales, are complex and show a reverse circulation momentum. “We expect that based on the existing policy framework, the policy is expected to further expand and deepen, so as to promote the recovery of market fundamentals.” The Research Report wrote.
Guan Rongxue told the Huaxia times that the policy side will act in due time according to the market feedback. Therefore, it is not ruled out that the follow-up rescue policy may be promoted. The trend of real estate stocks is expected to show signs of improvement under the policy increase, but it will take some time for the momentum to completely reverse. Moreover, under the positioning of healthy and benign development of the industry, steady state is the prominent feature of the trend.
In an interview with Huaxia times, Zhang Bo said that the policy expectation of the real estate industry this year is biased towards relaxation, but the market performance from January to February has not reflected a significant improvement in the data, especially the sales amount of commercial housing still fell significantly year-on-year. From the house price data of 70 cities released by the Bureau of statistics, the first-hand and second-hand housing in most cities still fell month on month. Therefore, although there are good expectations of the market and policies, and the industry recovery is also relatively consistent expectations, the performance of real estate stocks will still fluctuate. It is expected that the subsequent stock price performance of real estate enterprises with scale advantages and financial stability will be stronger.
Guan Rongxue also suggested that although the real estate industry has issued many favorable policies since 2022, combined with the national real estate investment and sales in the first two months, the real estate sales situation has not improved significantly, the industry confidence is still weak, and it will take time to repair the market environment. In addition, some real estate enterprises, especially private real estate enterprises, still have great pressure on capital flow.
