Key investment points: the auto sector fell 4.75% this week, 0.5 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index.
Under the vehicle sector, the passenger car sector fell by 4.20%, which was in line with the CSI 300 index, the commercial vehicle sector fell by 5.99%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.8 percentage points, the truck sub sector fell by 6.39%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.2 percentage points, the passenger car sub sector fell by 4.95%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.7 percentage points. The auto parts sector fell 5.16% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.9 percentage points; The auto service sector fell 3.73%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.5 percentage points.
This week, the performance of the CSI 300 index was 0.2 percentage points weaker than that of the Shanghai Composite Index, and the overall performance of the automobile sector was poor. All auto related concept sectors fell this week, with traditional cars falling the most, down 4.8%. New energy vehicles, smart cars, charging pile index, lithium battery index, automotive aftermarket and Internet of vehicles decreased by 4.7%, 4.0%, 4.2%, 4.3% and 4.6% respectively.
In February, the retail sales volume of passenger car market was 1.246 million, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month on month decrease of 40.0%.
Although the pre holiday peak sales period of this year is 10 days less than that of last year due to the early spring festival, due to the demand for replenishment after the festival and the peak sales of new energy, combined with the early start of some enterprises after the Spring Festival, the overall trend of retail sales in February is still strong. In February, 540000 self owned brands were retailed, with a month on month change of + 14% / – 42%. The year-on-year increase is mainly due to the obvious increase of self owned brands in the new energy market. The sales of electric vehicles of Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely, Chery and other Chinese automobile enterprises showed a high growth. In February, the retail sales of luxury cars were 160000, with a month on month change of – 3% / – 44%. The retail sales of luxury cars were significantly stronger in early January, and the trend in January could not be continued in February. In February, 550000 mainstream joint venture brands were retailed, with a month on month change of – 1% / – 36%, and the year-on-year growth rate was improved compared with that in January. It is suggested to focus on the independent auto enterprises Geely Automobile and Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) ; Recommended blue chip stocks with value of parts sector Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ; Recommended growth stocks Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Sichuan Chuanhuan Technology Co.Ltd(300547) .
In the first week of March, 223000 passenger cars were retailed, a year-on-year decrease of 13%. According to the data released by the passenger car Federation, the retail sales volume of the passenger car market in the first week of March was 223000, a year-on-year decrease of 13%, a month-on-week decrease of 49% and an increase of 42% over the same period last month. The retail performance in the first week was relatively weak, mainly because the working day in March 2021 was one more day than that in the first week of March 2022, which caused some interference to the sales in the first week of March. Secondly, the outbreak of epidemic in many places in China and the war between Russia and Ukraine also had a certain impact on the retail sales. It is expected that in the future, with the control of the epidemic in China, consumer confidence will recover, the auto retail market will gradually pick up, and the passenger car sector is expected to usher in the double improvement of performance and valuation.
Risk warning: Overseas epidemic continues to spread; Macroeconomic downturn accelerated; China’s auto market is depressed; Upstream raw material prices rose.
