The speed of automobile electrification, intelligence and networking has been increased, and the application of chip has been greatly improved. At present, automotive chips have been widely used in many fields, such as power, body, cabin, chassis and safety. According to the prediction of China Automobile Industry Association, the number of single chip of new energy vehicles will exceed 1400 in 2022. Due to the strict requirements on the safety of vehicle chips, the entry threshold is higher than that of consumer electronics, and the competition pattern is relatively stable. Infineon, NXP, Renesas, Italian French semiconductor and Ti have been in the forefront of the market for a long time.
Vehicle chips mainly include function chips, main control chips, power semiconductors and sensors. At present, the demand for MCU and other functional chips is growing rapidly; The main control chip tends to be more computationally powerful, and the penetration rate in the cockpit and driving domain is improved; Power semiconductors are widely used in new energy vehicles; With the development of ADAS, the demand for sensors has increased significantly.
Lack of core and resumption: the congenital deficiency of the supply chain is the main reason, and the spread of the epidemic and other factors add fuel to the fire. Since the second half of 2020, the problem of “core shortage” of cars has begun to appear, and the impact will intensify in 2021. According to AFS statistics, in 2021, due to the shortage of chips, the cumulative production reduction in the global automobile market was about 10.2 million. Among them, the “congenital” problems such as tight production capacity and lack of flexibility in the supply chain are the main reasons. For a long time, the investment in automobile chip production line has been insufficient, and some production capacity has been occupied by online applications in the epidemic. The inelastic supply chain has failed to support when the demand for automobile chips is good. In addition, Texas blizzard, Reza fire and Malaysia epidemic have made chip supply “worse”.
The tight supply and demand pattern will continue, and the market opportunities for Chinese manufacturers will appear. In 2022, the epidemic, geopolitical and other external shocks still exist, the problem of insufficient production capacity of automobile chips has not been substantially alleviated, and the supply situation in the first quarter is still severe. According to Susquehanna, the average delivery time of global chips in February was extended to more than half a year, reaching a new high. Among them, the shortage of MCU and power chip is the most serious, and the supply of analog chip is also tight. In order to cope with the lack of core, the chip factory is increasing the investment in the production capacity of vehicle specification chip, and the car factory is also considering reshaping the supply chain. It is expected that the lack of core will be alleviated in the second half of 2022, but the supply tension will continue until 2023.
Investment suggestion: under the background of “lack of core”, Chinese car manufacturers began to seek multi supplier strategy. Domestic chip manufacturers are facing market opportunities and are expected to make breakthroughs in the fields of vehicle power semiconductors, MCU, cockpit and autopilot SOC. Recommend Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) and Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) and pay attention to Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) etc.
Risk tips: 1) the growth of automobile market is less than expected; 2) Slow release of chip capacity; 3) The progress of technology research and development is less than expected.
