Key points:
The sales area of commercial housing continued to decline, and the capital of real estate enterprises was still under pressure. From January to February 2022, the sales area of commercial housing in China was 157 million square meters (year-on-year – 9.6%), of which the sales area of commercial housing was 135 million square meters (year-on-year – 13.8%); The sales amount of commercial housing was 1.54 trillion yuan (year-on-year – 19.3%), and the sales amount of commercial housing was 1.36 trillion yuan (year-on-year – 22.1%). Sales continue to decline, and the effect of demand side policies needs to be continuously observed.
From the perspective of capital, the medium and long-term loans of residents decreased by 45.9 billion yuan in February, a year-on-year decrease of 457.2 billion yuan, which was the first negative growth since the data were released. From the source of development funds, from January to February, the real estate development funds decreased by 17.7% year-on-year, of which the deposit and advance payment decreased by 27% year-on-year, and the personal mortgage loan decreased by 16.8% year-on-year, both of which were larger than that of the previous month. Overall, the weak demand leads to the pressure on the capital of real estate enterprises.
From January to February 2022, the completed amount of real estate development investment was 1.45 trillion (year-on-year + 3.7%), the land purchase area decreased by 42.3%, the land transaction price decreased by 26.7%, the newly started area of houses decreased by 12.2%, the completed area of houses decreased by 9.8% and the construction area of houses increased by 1.8% year-on-year.
The positive growth of construction or the increase of project resumption under the support of “guaranteed delivery” policy, and accelerating the project progress will also help real estate enterprises obtain regulated pre-sale funds and speed up cash withdrawal.
In February, the performance of the land market was sluggish, and the performance of subsequent centralized land supply is expected. In February 2022, the land supply and transaction planning construction areas of 100 large and medium-sized cities were 79.2 million square meters (year-on-year – 45%) and 59.82 million square meters (year-on-year – 33%) respectively; Among them, the supply of residential land and the construction area traded were 19.35 million square meters (year-on-year – 60%) and 9.83 million square meters (year-on-year – 74%) respectively. In February, the land transaction premium rate was 3.6%, up 0.39 PCT month on month, still at a historical low; The land auction rate was 48.6%, up 21 PCT month on month Overall, due to the small land supply in February, especially the 22 cities with centralized land supply have not fully opened land supply, the superimposed sales have not improved, and the low willingness of real estate enterprises to acquire land has led to an increase in the auction rate. It is worth paying attention to the land market performance of cities with centralized land supply in March.
Affected by the overall market, the recent adjustment of the real estate sector is more obvious
Year to date, the real estate index fell 14.2%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.2pct Since March (as of March 15), all sectors of the market have significantly adjusted. The real estate index has fallen by 12.4%, and the rise and fall of Shenwan industry ranks 13 / 31 Among the secondary industries, the real estate development index fell 12.3% and the real estate service index fell 15.4%. Among the key listed real estate enterprises we monitored, the three companies with small decline since March are: China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) (- 5.8%), Gemdale Corporation(600383) (- 6.3%) and Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (- 7.0%).
Investment advice
Sales, land acquisition and new construction continued to decline, and the industry fundamentals are still at the bottom stage. However, under the policy tone of steady growth this year, since March, the real estate regulation and control policy has gradually exerted force on the demand side and supply side. Due to the relaxation of urban regulation and control, the end of the policy has been realized, and the sector valuation is expected to continue to repair. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk. Maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry.
Risk tips
Control policy uncertainty risk; Continuous downside risk of market sales.
