On Tuesday, the main A-share index fluctuated and fell all day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.95% in volume and fell 3100 points; The Shenzhen composite index fell 4.36% to 1153724 points; The gem index once had a strong trend in the morning, turned from red to green near the midday closing, and dived again in the afternoon, closing down 2.55%. Shanghai and Shenzhen markets traded a total of 1.12 trillion yuan yesterday, which was larger than before.
northward capital outflow of 10 billion
On the disk yesterday, only the concept of electronic ID card was more active, Hangzhou Everfine Photo-E-Info Co.Ltd(300306) gained the second 20% limit, Linewell Software Co.Ltd(603636) 3 connected to the board. All 31 Shenwan industries fell, and the overall pullback of the power equipment sector with the smallest decline also exceeded 2%.
Cyclical stocks led the adjustment range, and coal, precious metals, oil and gas, steel and other sectors fell sharply, becoming one of the main factors dragging down the trend of the Shanghai index. Yesterday, more than 4400 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell and less than 300 stocks rose.
In terms of capital, the north capital sold off on a scale of 10 billion for the second consecutive day, with a net sales of 16.024 billion yuan, ranking the third highest in history Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , China stock market news and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) were sold net of RMB 2.706 billion, RMB 1.253 billion and RMB 1.061 billion respectively. The China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) net purchase amount ranks first, with an amount of 76 million yuan.
Wind statistics show that as of March 15, northbound funds have shown a unilateral outflow trend for seven consecutive days this month, with a cumulative reduction of more than 64.5 billion yuan. According to the statistics of Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) on the historical data, including this round, there have been six significant outflows of northward funds, and the previous five occurred in July and October 2015, October 2018, March 2019 and March 2020 respectively.
short-term fluctuation does not change the long-term inflow trend of foreign capital
The widely accepted view of the market is: on the one hand, the volatility of overseas markets has intensified, and inflation concerns have led to the continued hawkish of the Federal Reserve; On the other hand, the recent escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the increasing complexity of the international order and the rising risk aversion of overseas funds are the main factors for the substantial outflow of overseas “long money” from a shares. The large outflow of foreign capital often brings disturbance to a shares. The short-term continuous outflow situation has aroused investors’ concern about “foreign capital withdrawing from a shares”.
However, many brokerage analysts believe that despite the continuous outflow of northward funds in the short term, the medium and long-term trend is not expected to change. Affected by the external environment, northbound funds have experienced net outflow in a single month for six times. However, from the annual point of view, northbound funds have been net inflow into A-Shares every year from the opening of Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect in 2014 to 2021.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) chief strategist Xun Yugen said that in history, A-Shares have experienced several periodic large outflows of foreign capital. At present, the proportion of net outflows of foreign capital is not large compared with April to may 2019 and February to March 2020, but it accounts for a high proportion of turnover. The current situation of A-Shares is similar to that in October 2018. When the market incremental funds are small, the impact of foreign capital outflow may be amplified.
Xun Yugen further analyzed that at present, the proportion of A-Shares in the global portfolio is still low. In 2020, the market value of A-share listed companies has reached 13% in the global capital market, while the weight of A-Shares in MSCI acwi index is only about 0.4%. Looking at the extended time cycle, with the rapid increase of the importance of China’s economy in the world, the inflow of foreign capital into A-Shares is still a long-term trend.
institutions are optimistic about the undervalued “steady growth” sector
After a round of substantial pullback, the current absolute valuation and relative valuation of A-Shares have a certain cost performance. Many institutions agree that the undervalued “steady growth” sector has room for repair in the future.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) chief strategist Dai Kang believes that after the rapid correction in the early stage, the return of wandequan a relative to bonds has been above the average + 1 times the standard deviation since 2010, which means that the medium and long-term holding price performance of stocks has been higher. In addition, the Chicago Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX panic index) and crude oil prices have fallen in recent days, the global risk appetite tends to improve, and the sustainability of foreign capital outflow is difficult to maintain. In terms of specific allocation, we are optimistic about the resource sector with supply and demand gap and the new and old infrastructure sector as the starting point of steady growth.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) strategy team has been optimistic about the varieties with relatively low valuation recently. Investors are advised to pay attention to high-quality developers, building materials and household enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, communication operators with significantly improved cash flow, fine chemical enterprises with the ability to launch new businesses such as new materials, etc. In addition, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) also recommended that we focus on a variety of quarterly expected products that are expected to exceed expectations. We will focus on disclosing better lithium, photovoltaic, semiconductor, Baijiu, medicine and construction sectors from 1 to February.
