On the first trading day of the beginning of the year, the "first brother of securities companies" Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) attracted another wave of attention and rarely gave the newly listed "first brother of futures" Yong'an futures a "sell" rating, which fell by the limit.
Yongan futures had a long negative limit last Friday. For two consecutive limits, the stock bar directly opened the pot, and many investors posted that they were covered. Fund Jun noted that last Friday, four seats in Dongcai Lhasa, the "retail base", appeared in the top five of the dragon and tiger list, with a total purchase capital of 212 million yuan. At present, they have been fully covered. Many netizens accused Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) of "malicious empty singing", while others thought it was "more pertinent" based on the analysis of facts and data.
Yongan futures, founded in 1992, is an old futures company almost the same age as China's commodity futures market. In terms of volume and net profit, Yong'an futures has steadily ranked first among China's futures companies in recent years. In the first half of 2021, Yong'an futures beat Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) subsidiary CITIC futures with a net profit of 740 million yuan, ranking first.
The last time Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) issued the "sell" report, it was also traced back to March 2019 nearly three years ago. At that time, the insurance leader The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) was stopped, and the whole market collapsed on the same day. At the beginning of last year, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) issued a research report when Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) hit 2600 yuan. It was the first to shout out the "one-year target price of 3000 yuan", which also triggered market disputes. Afterwards, it was the peak of Maotai's share price at that time, and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) fell to 1512 yuan six months later.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : up to 22 yuan
Last Friday, Yong'an futures, which had been listed for seven trading days, had fallen by the limit. Unexpectedly, it would be worse on the first trading day of the new year and was stabbed by Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) .
In the morning of January 4, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) released a Research Report - "futures leader, but not cheap".
The report analyzes Yong'an futures from the aspects of futures industry, company profile, business model and core competitiveness, and finally turns to the challenges faced by the company.
The report said that the main business share of Yong'an futures brokerage fell, and the channel capacity needs to be strengthened. Since 2018, the market share of the company's brokerage business has generally been in a downward trend. The market share of the exchange in the previous period decreased from 2.3% in 2018 to 1.4% in the first half of 2021; The market share in Zhengshang exchange decreased from 2.4% in 2018 to 1.7% in the first half of 2021; The market share in Dachang exchange decreased from 3.0% in 2018 to 1.8% in the first half of 2021; The market share of CICC decreased from 2.2% in 2018 to 1.85% in the first half of 2021. At the same time, the overall level of the company's commission rate is also under great pressure. The downward trend is consistent with the industry, but the absolute level is significantly lower than that of peer companies.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that in the medium and long term (more than one year), the valuation of Yong'an futures may tend to the valuation of securities companies' shares. With reference to the current securities industry and leading securities companies, the reasonable range is 1.2-1.7 times Pb, and the corresponding reasonable valuation of the company in 2022 is 15-21.3 billion yuan. However, it believes that in the short and medium term, the futures industry is still in the boom stage, and the profit and capital of Yong'an futures are expected to continue to maintain the leading position. In addition, the company actively promotes business transformation. It is expected that the roe of the company will be in the range of 12% - 14% in the next three years, which is significantly higher than the industry level. "We will give the company another 50% valuation premium, corresponding to a reasonable valuation range of 22.5-32 billion yuan".
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) continues to say that at present, the company's circulating shares are 145 million, the circulating price is relatively small, and the characteristics of secondary new shares are obvious in the short term. It will be 530 million circulating shares on December 23, 2022, and the circulating price will expand significantly. It is expected that the company's valuation will tend to be rational in the next year, and there is a risk that the company's share price will fall by more than 10% relative to the market, "Meet our" sell "rating standard, and give" sell "rating for the first time, taking the target price per share corresponding to the upper valuation limit as RMB 22".
Public data show that since the launch of listing, there have been 6 research reports of securities companies covering Yong'an futures, respectively from Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) , Huaxin securities and Huajin securities. Among them, 2 were rated "buy", 3 were rated "overweight" and 1 was rated "sell" of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) .
Yongan futures two limit
some netizens just bought it last Friday and lost 13%
Since its listing on December 23, the share price of Yong'an futures has been trading for six consecutive days. The market is speculating that the share price of "the first brother of futures" can be trading for several consecutive days. However, on Friday, Yong'an futures fluctuated after opening sharply lower and closed at the limit of 37.52 yuan / share.
On January 4, with Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) shouting "sell", Yong'an futures directly opened the limit, and then there were funds to try to turn the rocker. However, after a short shock, it was pressed back to the limit less than 10:00, and the order was sealed for more than 100000 hands. It was helpless to seal the limit until the closing, at 33.77 yuan. According to the target price of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) up to 22 yuan, Yong'an futures still has 35% room for decline.
Suddenly sing empty, two consecutive limit, stock bar directly fried the pot.
Many netizens accused Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) of "malicious empty singing". Some said that "CITIC bought the opposite, and the villa depends on the sea", and some said that "CITIC futures can't do Yongan Laiyin". Many netizens just bought it last Friday, covering more than a dozen points.
Some netizens said that CITIC's analysis has data and logic, "I think it's more pertinent".
The reporter of China fund daily noted that it was retail funds that bought heavily last Friday. Four Dongcai Lhasa seats regarded as the headquarters of retail investors entered the top five, with funds ranging from more than 40 million yuan to more than 60 million yuan, with a total purchase of 212 million yuan. No matter whether you cut the meat or continue to hold it today, all these funds are undoubtedly trapped to varying degrees.
scale and profitability rank first
Yong'an futures beat CITIC futures
According to public data, Yong'an futures, founded in September 1992, is the third A-share main board listed futures company. It is an old futures company almost the same age as China's commodity futures market. The company has a registered capital of 1.31 billion yuan and was listed on the new third board in October 2015. During the listing period, the company ranked first in the market value of the new third board. The actual controller of Yong'an futures is the Department of finance of Zhejiang Province. The main shareholders holding the equity of the company are: Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) , Zhejiang Industrial Fund Co., Ltd. and Zhejiang Economic Construction Investment Co., Ltd.
Yong'an futures is the only company in the industry that has obtained the highest rating of AA in the classified evaluation results of futures companies for 11 consecutive years. It is a comprehensive leader in the main business of futures companies such as brokerage and risk management. Huajin securities research report said that the leading position of Yong'an futures in the industry is mainly reflected in two aspects: one is that the company's volume accounts for a prominent proportion of the overall scale of the industry, and the other is that the company's net profit far exceeds that of other futures companies.
Data show that in the first three quarters of this year, Yong'an futures recorded an operating revenue of 27.368 billion yuan and a net profit of 875 million yuan. Yong'an futures accounts for 77.07% of the revenue and 8.8% of the profit of the industry.
In horizontal comparison with other futures companies, the net profit of Yong'an futures increased from 310 million yuan in 2014 to 1.15 billion yuan in 2020, ranking first in the industry for six consecutive years. The gap between the net profit level of Yong'an futures and the second place also continues to widen. In 2014, Yong'an futures led the second place by RMB 30 million, and by 2020, the net profit has led by RMB 500 million. In the first half of 2021, Yong'an futures still beat CITIC futures with a net profit of 740 million yuan, ranking first.
In terms of capital strength, after the listing of Yongan futures on the new third board, the capital strength has been significantly enhanced, and only CITIC futures can compete with the company in the industry. The net assets of the company were only RMB 1.757 billion in 2014 and jumped to RMB 4.019 billion after listing in 2015. Since then, it has firmly occupied the top two position in the industry. CITIC futures and Yong'an futures are the only companies with net assets of more than 8 billion yuan in the industry, with a gap of 2 billion yuan between them and the third place Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) futures.
CITIC called Maotai 3000 yuan last year
shout out the peak of stock price stage
When issuing individual stock research reports, securities companies mainly have several ratings: strong recommendation, recommendation, buy, hold, sell and neutral. Statistics show that the probability of securities companies giving "sell" rating is about one thousandth. Xiaobai, who has just entered the market, doesn't even know that securities companies still have "sell" research reports.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) also rarely issued research reports with "sell" rating. The first time was The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) given five months of listing in 2019.
At the beginning of 2019, since February, China's stock market has changed its decline and continued to rise. The Shanghai stock index, small and medium-sized board index and gem index have increased by more than 20% in one month, just like a bull market. The large financial sector rose the limit continuously, The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) doubled in 13 trading days, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) rose 200% in a short time, Beijing Tongtech Co.Ltd(300379) and other demon stocks rose 7 times in a short time, and investors entered the market crazily.
In this hot atmosphere, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) a paper research report suggested that the market "sell" the hot stock The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) , which is expected to fall by 53.9% in the next year. It instantly burst the market and everyone looked at it. Then Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) also gave a "sell" rating to China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities. The next day, The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) and China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) opened at the limit, the Shanghai index fell 4.4 percentage points, and the securities sector fell 8.5 percentage points, approaching the limit.
Last year, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) also gave a "one-year target price of 3000 yuan" due to the high blowing of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , which caused an uproar in the market.
On February 10, 2021, when the stock price of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) hit 2600 yuan, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) released a report - "three trillion from scratch, Changpo thick snow and spring breeze".
According to the report, both short-term and long-term, steady growth sustainability & high certainty, Maotai's scarcity is becoming increasingly prominent, which is expected to enjoy a higher premium, and the current valuation has strong support. In addition, the report said that Baijiu Baijiu consensus after 2021 Spring Festival, liquor sector investment is still optimistic, Moutai solid fundamentals, offensive and defensive, and more catalytic industry is expected to lead to rise, "one year target price of 3000 yuan."
However, in hindsight, 2600 yuan is obviously a stage high point of Maotai's stock price. Since February 2021, Maotai's stock price has continued to fluctuate and decline, and recorded an annual low of 1512 yuan on August 20, which is almost halved compared with the target price of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) 3000 yuan. At present, it has just recovered the 2000 yuan mark.
The stock price of Qimao was sealed down by singing empty. At the head of the new year, securities companies opened the "sell" rating for the first time, and there is expected to be 35% downward space
(China Fund News)
