the future journey of independent brand new energy vehicles is the “star sea” of the global market, which has become the main driving force driving the growth of automobile export.
Special author Chen Yuan / Wen
Affected by the covid-19 epidemic, chip shortage, rising raw material prices and other adverse factors, global automobile manufacturers are struggling in 2021. Analysts predict that in 2021, the global automobile production will decrease by 7.7 million and the global automobile industry revenue will decrease by more than 60 billion US dollars.
However, driven by the rise of independent brands, China’s automobile market has walked out of an upward curve. According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, in the first 11 months of 2021, China’s automobile production and sales completed 23.172 million and 23.489 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and 4.5% respectively. Among them, 8.406 million Chinese brand passenger cars were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, and the market share reached 44.1%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points over the same period in 2020. It is predicted that the sales volume of new vehicles in China’s auto market will reach 26.1 million in 2021, an increase of 3.1% over the sales volume of 25.31 million in 2020. The situation of continuous decline for three consecutive years is expected to be reversed.
The export performance of Chinese brand cars in 2021 is excellent, showing a new trend of simultaneous increase in volume and price as a whole.
According to the latest data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in the first 11 months of 2021, China’s cumulative automobile export reached 1.793 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 times. Among them, the export volume in November reached 200000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 59.1%. In this context, the export volume of several Chinese automobile brands has increased significantly, reaching a new high. For example, from January to November 2021, SAIC exported 245000 passenger cars, exceeding the total export sales in 2020; Chery exported a total of 237900 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 137.6%; Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) a total of 109000 vehicles were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 120%; Geely exported nearly 100000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 61%; Jac group exported 68000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 112.8%.
“Export is a great growth point of China’s automobile market in 2021. On the one hand, the overseas epidemic has led to a tight supply of other brand products; on the other hand, the grade of China’s exported automobile products is much higher than before, and the cost performance is further improved.” Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Industry Association, predicts that China’s overall automobile export market may reach the scale of 2 million vehicles in 2021, and the automobile export volume will maintain a high growth in 2022.
Chen Shihua said that in the past, it was difficult for Chinese brand fuel vehicles to be exported to developed countries, while new energy vehicles were different. At present, medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles have been exported to Belgium, Britain, Germany and other countries, which has become the main driving force driving the growth of Chinese brand vehicle exports.
According to the prediction of Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , China’s automobile export will continue to grow and is expected to exceed 5 million by 2025.
exports grew explosively
From 2018 to 2020, China’s annual export of automobiles was about 1 million, but after entering 2021, the export increased explosively. In October, the export reached 231000, breaking the single month historical record of China’s automobile export, with a month on month increase of 33.8% and a year-on-year increase of 1.1 times.
For the reasons for the rapid growth of China’s automobile export data in 2021, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that the first is that automobile enterprises take the initiative to promote the layout of overseas markets, import models and cooperate with local dealers to accelerate their development. China’s old export car companies represented by SAIC mg and Chery and new layout car companies such as great wall accelerated the introduction of models in overseas markets and seized the market share of Suzuki, Kia and Honda in South America, Russia, Africa and other regions by taking advantage of their cost-effective advantages. Secondly, the overseas epidemic is relatively serious. China benefits from the improvement of the supply chain of the local automobile industry, which has little impact and convenient export conditions. In 2021, the epidemic situation in overseas markets, especially India, was more serious, which had a great impact on the local supply chain and was good for the export industry layout of Chinese auto enterprises.
Huafu Securities said that the reasons for the explosive growth of China’s automobile exports in 2021 are: China’s epidemic situation is well controlled and the substitution effect on overseas production; According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, the growth contribution of new energy vehicle exports is 43.3%; After many years of overseas operation of Chinese independent brands, the product power and brand have been greatly improved.
In terms of the types of exported vehicles, passenger cars are the mainstream export varieties, accounting for about 3 / 4 of the export, which has been relatively stable in recent years. China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile has obvious first mover advantages. With the accelerated penetration of global new energy vehicles, the export of new energy vehicles has increased significantly, accounting for about 1 / 4 in the first three quarters of 2021, which has become the main driving force of China’s automobile export. In terms of the regional structure of exports, Asia is the largest region of China’s exports, but its proportion has dropped from 45% in 2018 to 33% in the first three quarters of 2021; The proportion of Europe increased significantly, from 6% in 2018 to 23%, mainly in central and Western European countries, indicating the improvement of the product power of Chinese auto enterprises.
From the perspective of export vehicle enterprises, independent brands account for 75.80% of the export increment, which is the main force to promote China’s automobile export from January to September 2021, among which Chery, SAIC and Tesla have the largest increment. Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) the split of China’s automobile exports from January to September 2021 shows that Chery Automobile (accounting for 18.8%), SAIC passenger car (accounting for 15.3%), Tesla (Shanghai) (accounting for 15.0%), SAIC GM Wuling (accounting for 8.9%), Chang’an autonomous (accounting for 6.9%), Geely Automobile (accounting for 6.0%), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (accounting for 5.9%) and SAIC GM (accounting for 5.3%) rank among the top, The cumulative increment of the eight auto enterprises accounts for more than 80% of the total increment.
From the perspective of exporting countries, Chile, Russia and Australia have a large increment. Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) the split of China’s independent brand exports from January to September 2021 shows that the incremental main exporters are Chile (18.2%), Russia (15.3%), Australia (11.8%), Egypt (7.3%), India (6.6%), Brazil (6.5%), Indonesia (6.3%), Mexico (5.1%) and the United Kingdom (4.1%).
In fact, Chinese auto brands are making breakthroughs in more overseas markets, ranking in many markets is also rising, and their reputation is improving day by day.
It is reported that up to now, SAIC passenger cars have entered 66 national and regional markets, and the product penetration rate has been increasing. From January to October 2021, the cumulative sales of SAIC passenger cars in Australia and New Zealand exceeded 35000, ranking ninth in the Australian passenger car market, an increase of 8 over the previous year; It ranks fifth in the passenger car market in South America.
In the first 11 months of 2021, the cumulative sales of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) in Australia and New Zealand exceeded 20000, with a year-on-year increase of 253%, becoming the Chinese brand with the fastest growth in local sales. The Australian and New Zealand market has also become the overseas market with the largest export scale of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) complete vehicles.
Geely Automobile ushered in an outbreak period in the overseas market in 2021: the first batch of geometric C models went to sea, and the cumulative orders reached 2486 in the month when they were listed in Israel; In the Philippines, Geely’s monthly sales reached a new record; In Qatar, Geely’s market share ranks among the top 10.
As the focus of China’s automobile brand export layout, the European and Asian markets exhibited popular small electric vehicle Euler and other popular models in China at the international auto show in Munich, Germany, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) in September. Also in September, the strategic model of Hongqi automobile, pure electric intelligent suve-hs9, announced its export to Europe, realizing an important breakthrough in the overseas high-end new energy vehicle market. From January to November, Geely’s Lingke brand delivered 4380 vehicles to European customers in subscription mode, and the shipment volume of Lingke brand exported to the European market reached 10702; In the second half of 2021, Lingke’s “Asia Pacific Plan” was launched, and Lingke 01 was also listed in Kuwait.
Specifically, in the Chilean market, with the continuous development and accumulation of Chinese independent brand car enterprises, the recognition of local brands has gradually increased. From January to September 2021, the sales volume of Chinese independent brands in Chile increased by 44600 vehicles year-on-year in 2020, and the market share increased by 6.77 PCT year-on-year. Among them, the independent brands with more market share are Chery (3.53 PCT) and SAIC mingjue (1.62 PCT).
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that Chile is an important strategic market for Chery. In March 2016, Chery arize 5 completed its initial public offering in Chile, opening the prelude to the global synchronous offering. In terms of products, Chery mainly sells Ruihu series and arize Series in Chile; In terms of channels, Chery’s agent in Chile is SK Berge company with deep government background. Under the cooperative marketing of the general agent and terminal network, Chery’s market share has continued to rise since 2019. SAIC’s mg brand is also widely recognized in Chile. It won the honor of the best brand in Chile in 2020. Since 2017, the market share has continued to increase and the trend is clear.
The market share of independent brands in the Russian market has increased, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that it is mainly due to the increasingly perfect production capacity layout of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and other brands in Russia, and the continuous improvement of brand recognition. From January to September 2021, the sales volume of Chinese independent brands in Russia increased by 37600 vehicles year-on-year in 2020, and the market share increased by 2.55 PCT year-on-year. The Chinese independent brands with more market share are Chery (1.56 PCT) and great wall (0.92 PCT).
Among them, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) has realized localized production as the first Chinese auto enterprise to explore the Russian market. It entered the Russian market in 2004 and signed Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) agent yilito in Russia in 2008. At present, it is the largest Chinese automobile brand in Russia. In 2015, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) invested 3.33 billion yuan to set up a wholly-owned subsidiary in Tula Prefecture, Russia. The production base plans to have an annual production capacity of 150000 vehicles, mainly producing SUV models. In June 2019, the phase I 80000 capacity project of Tula factory was officially completed and put into operation. It is the first overseas wholly-owned manufacturing plant of Chinese automobile brand.
At present, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) models introduced into the Russian market include compact SUV and lower priced Haval F7, H5, H6, H9, H2 and Fengjun 7. Haval F7 is also the first car off the assembly line of Tula factory. In terms of price, the starting price of Haval F7 is 1449000 rubles (about 123100 yuan), which is similar to the pricing of saiguan Hyundai ix25, but the configuration of space, power and intelligence is stronger than that of competitors. From January to September 2021, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) the main model sold in Russia is still Haval F7, with a total of 16700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 124.23%; Harvard’s first love performed well after it was sold in the Russian market in July, with 3395 vehicles sold in March.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that the main reasons for the increase in the market share of independent brands in Australia include: the shutdown of local brands in Australia; The recognition of great wall and other independent brands has been continuously improved. From January to September 2021, the sales volume of Chinese independent brands in Australia increased by 28900 vehicles year-on-year in 2020, and the market share increased by 3.11 PCT year-on-year. The independent brands with more market share are SAIC mingjue (2.05 PCT) and Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (1.06 PCT).
From the perspective of export strategy, major automobile enterprises have more expectations for more and faster access to overseas markets.
It is reported that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) plans to shift from focusing on Chinese business to paying equal attention to both cultivating the Chinese market and expanding overseas markets. Through the whole industrial chain going to sea, reconstruct the Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) sales structure, strive to exceed 1.5 million overseas sales, accounting for 15% of the group’s overall sales, and the average annual compound growth rate is expected to exceed 30%. In 2025, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) European sales will impact the scale of 300000 vehicles, of which new energy vehicles account for 70% to 80%, and achieve full coverage of entry-level to medium and high-grade products.
Jac group is also actively implementing the internationalization strategy to change the single automobile export into the output of the whole industrial chain. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, JAC group has regarded the international business as a strategic core business and promoted it to the same position as the Chinese business. Therefore, JAC group has formulated the strategic goal of reaching 150000 vehicles in the international market in 2025.
Chery’s overseas strategy is very clear. During the “14th five year plan” period, we should fully realize the “double 50”, that is, export 500000 vehicles a year and realize an export profit of 5 billion yuan, which means that one quarter of Chery’s sales in 2025 will be contributed by the overseas market.
Geely’s external strategy is also ambitious. The “Longwan action” formulated by Geely includes comprehensively promoting Geely’s globalization process and realizing technology to sea. It is planned that the overseas sales will reach 600000 by 2025. Geely will focus one on the “one belt, one road” countries in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Africa and South America, and build global 600+ overseas outlets to enter the new energy automotive market in Europe and Asia Pacific.
As one of the new forces in car making, the p7 of Xiaopeng automobile was officially put on sale in Norway on October 25; The new smart flagship SUV Xiaopeng G9, which debuted at Guangzhou auto show in 2021, is a model designed and developed for the global market. Xiaopeng automobile will continue to actively layout in Norway and other European markets, and will continue to improve the sales, delivery and service system in Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands in the future. Gu Hongdi, vice chairman and President of Xiaopeng automobile, said that the long-term goal of Xiaopeng automobile is to sell 50% abroad.
Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and Secretary General of China Automobile Industry Association, said that in 2021, China’s automobile sales are expected to exceed 26 million, the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 3.4 million, and the automobile export is expected to exceed 2 million. The 2022 CICC automobile white paper also predicts that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the global mainstream market will exceed the critical point of 10% in 2022, new energy vehicles will enter the steep stage of the S-shaped growth curve, the export market is expected to achieve multiple growth, and the leading independent vehicle enterprises will open the space to double their growth.
new energy vehicle assists
The sudden emergence of new energy vehicles has given China’s automobile industry more opportunities to win the market, and has become an important field driving the growth of China’s automobile export. According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, from January to November 2021, China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) exported 291000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 189.9%. Among them, 37000 new energy vehicles were exported in November, with a growth contribution of 32.9%.
According to the data of the passenger Federation, the top auto enterprises in the export volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) in mid November include SAIC passenger cars (6110 vehicles), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (426 vehicles) and Byd Company Limited(002594) (404 vehicles), and the export volume of new energy vehicles of other auto enterprises is also rising.
In the era of fuel vehicles, European, American, Japanese and Korean car enterprises started early and accumulated profound advantages in core technologies such as gearbox and engine, as well as brands and channels. After falling behind others, although the independent brand has not fallen behind in many aspects such as appearance, interior decoration, configuration and even workmanship materials after years of efforts, the gap in driving and handling performance makes it difficult to improve the value and reputation of the independent brand, and has been living in the middle and low-end market for a long time. According to the statistics of Anxin securities, the independent traditional passenger car ASP from 2019 to 2021 was about 100000 yuan, far lower than 200000 yuan of the joint venture brand, indicating the high premium of the joint venture brand.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that several changes are taking place in the industry from fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles: first, electrification reduces the threshold of car making and attracts new participants. In addition to the stock car enterprises, there are new car making forces, Internet enterprises and some traditional real estate enterprises.
Second, the electric vehicle supply chain is more open and the value is transferred. The power assembly of traditional fuel vehicles is generally self supplied like the engine, and the gearbox is generally stably matched by Tier1; The supply chain of electric vehicle “three electricity” (battery, motor and electronic control) system is more open, providing global supporting opportunities for Chinese suppliers.
Third, led by Tesla, the attention of electric vehicle enterprises to the global market has increased. In 2017, Tesla ranked among the top ten (eighth) in the market value of global auto enterprises for the first time; In 2020, Tesla will surpass Toyota and rank first in the market value of global auto enterprises; Since 2020, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Weilai and other electric vehicle enterprises have also ranked among the top ten in the world.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that compared with traditional fuel vehicles, electric intelligent vehicles can better meet the needs of future end users for consumption upgrading and personality. Under the wave of electrification, Chinese car enterprises are expected to “change lanes and overtake”. After the automobile drive system is changed from engine + gearbox to “three electricity” system, the hardware barrier is weakened and the software barrier such as intelligence is improved. Chinese enterprises accelerated the iteration of electric intelligent vehicles in 2017-2021. At present, the product performance has reached the global leading level.
According to the research report data of Anxin securities, from 2009 to 2020, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was less than 6%, and China’s passenger car market was basically composed of fuel vehicles. The joint venture brands dominant in traditional vehicles accounted for more than 50% of China’s passenger car market. Among them, from 2018 to 2019, the increase of macroeconomic downward pressure impacted the middle and low-end demand of the car market, superimposed on the advance overdraft demand of the preferential purchase tax policies from 2015 to 2017, and the market share of independent brands decreased from 43.9% in 2017 to 38.4% in 2020.
From January to October 2021, the cumulative sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars were 2.386 million, with a significant year-on-year increase of 204.8%. Due to the high share of independent brands in the new energy market of 75.8%, the growth of new energy sales led to the increase of independent brands’ market share from 38.4% in 2020 to 43.9%, of which the share of independent brands in the new energy market increased from 73.8% in 2020 to 75.8% in October 2021, It is expected to remain at about 76% in the whole year.
According to the data of the passenger Federation, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles has reached 20% in November 2021, significantly higher than the penetration rate of 4.2% in 2019. According to the data of traffic compulsory insurance, in October 2021, the penetration rate of new energy without restrictions on travel and purchase has exceeded 30%, reaching 32.5%; The penetration rate of new energy in non restricted cities and restricted cities increased rapidly to 14.6% and 17.7% respectively, with great room for improvement. In addition, the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles in non restricted cities increased from 39.4% in 2019 to 49.4% in October 2021. It is expected that new energy passenger vehicles are expected to continue to penetrate into non restricted cities.
With the launch of all pure electric and hybrid platforms, the decline in the cost of new energy vehicles, the improvement of product power and continuous marketing promotion, new energy passenger vehicles are expected to usher in a period of rapid growth. Combined with the development of pure electric and hybrid platforms of various vehicle enterprises and the pace of new vehicle launch, Anxin securities expects that the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to reach 48.3% in 2025, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to reach 12.62 million, and the CAGR is about 41%. Independent brands are expected to maintain their leading position in the new energy market – by 2025, the market share is expected to reach 78.2%, and the market share of the overall automobile market is also expected to increase to 65%.
Under the tide of global electrification, Chinese car enterprises have arranged overseas and practiced the “going out” strategy.
Europe is the main market for China’s electric vehicle exports. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, about 64% of China’s new energy vehicles exported in 2020 were exported to six European countries (Belgium, Britain, Germany, Norway, the Netherlands and Sweden). As early as 2018 and 2019, SAIC Maxus & grand, Chery Exeed and other models were successfully exported to Europe. Since 2020, more and more brands and models in China are accelerating to go to sea. Traditional car companies such as great wall and Byd Company Limited(002594) and new power car companies such as Xiaopeng and Weilai have gone to sea with their high-quality products.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the threshold for entering the European automobile market is wvta (full name: whole vehicle type approval), which is the EU vehicle type certification, involving 43 vehicle test items such as vehicle noise, mileage, collision safety and pedestrian protection, and the indicators are higher than the requirements of Chinese regulations. In addition, to achieve mass access, annual Factory review is also required, and all test items need to be completed. Wvta is one of the most stringent automotive certification systems in the world. Only certified automotive products can be sold in the EU market, and any EU member state must accept the certification results. Wvta’s strict certification standards have brought certain entry barriers to Chinese automobile enterprises in the short term. Previously, most Chinese new energy automobile enterprises chose Norway outside the “EU” as their first stop at sea, which may not fully meet wvta’s consideration in the short term.
In December 2017, the middle and high-end electric vehicle brand lite of BAIC Group officially obtained the EU whole vehicle wvta certification, which is the first two door and two seat pure electric vehicle in China to obtain the European export pass. Subsequently, Chinese brand electric vehicle models such as Aichi U5, Xiaopeng P7 and Weilai es8 have successively passed the strict wvta certification with solid product strength. In the future, these models are expected to pass mass production and be sold in all countries within the EU, opening up a larger market space.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that Europe is only the first step to the sea, and the future journey of China’s independent brand new energy vehicles is the “sea of stars” in the global market.
With the vigorous promotion of the global energy revolution, the power structure in the automotive field is also undergoing profound changes. The trend of electrification, intelligence and networking of the automotive industry in the past century is irresistible. The baton of Chinese cars going to sea is being transmitted from traditional fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles. Chinese car companies and overseas car companies stand on the same starting line of the new “track” of electric vehicles for the first time, and Chinese car companies have the first mover advantage, which is expected to usher in the opportunity of overtaking in corners. In the medium and long term, China has a huge population base and market, leading overseas electrification local supply chain and high-speed iterative intelligent electric vehicle products. Chinese electric vehicle enterprises are expected to start from Europe, open the “great navigation era” of new energy vehicles and open greater market space in the world.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) it is estimated that China’s passenger car export will continue to grow to 1.84 million in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, and is expected to exceed 5 million in the long term by 2025. In the future, China’s key passenger car export regions include Southeast Asia market, South America market, Eastern Europe market and South Asia market. The main increment comes from the accelerated layout of model introduction and capacity launch in corresponding regions, such as great wall, Geely, Chery and SAIC mg.
Huafu Securities said that in the era of intelligent electric vehicles, the advantages of Chinese independent brands in technology, product power, brand, supply chain resources and talent level have gradually emerged and rapidly improved in the Chinese market; In the overseas market, in the face of traditional automobile enterprises with slow transformation of new energy such as Japan and South Korea, with the accelerated penetration of new energy vehicles, it is expected to further seize the market share and become the main source of China’s automobile demand. It is estimated that 1.98 million vehicles will be exported in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 99.1%; After 2022, it will resume steady growth, and the CAGR will be 8% from 2022 to 2025.
from cycle to growth
In addition to providing opportunities for Chinese independent brand car companies to overtake in corners, the new energy car track will also significantly improve its profitability. The investment in vehicle stocks is expected to turn to the long-term sustained high growth drive.
Anxin Securities said that excluding the impact of license plate value, pure electric vehicles are more expensive and sell better than fuel vehicles with the same configuration, indicating that consumers have higher willingness to price electric vehicles than fuel vehicles, and pure electric platform models have the advantages of leapfrog cost reduction and easier platform, and the cost is expected to be lower than that of fuel vehicles at the same level, Therefore, the profitability of electric vehicles is expected to significantly exceed that of fuel vehicles.
Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, pure electric platform models have the advantages of leapfrog cost reduction and easier platform. Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, pure electric platform models do not need to consider the location layout of engine, gearbox, transmission shaft and other components. The body structure is more flexible and the space utilization rate is higher. Therefore, pure electric vehicles with the same wheelbase (space) have shorter body size and lower overall material cost, so as to achieve leapfrog cost reduction.
In addition, compared with traditional fuel vehicles, in addition to the horizontal design and engine layout required by the chassis of traditional fuel vehicles, pure electric vehicles integrate batteries and motors into the chassis structure, and change the battery capacity according to the body size and endurance requirements, so as to design models with different sizes, wheelbase and endurance. Therefore, compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the parts of electric vehicles are more universal and the difficulty of platform is relatively lower.
Thanks to the advantages of leapfrog cost reduction and easier platform, the cost of electric vehicles is expected to be lower than that of fuel vehicles at the same level. Taking the Byd Company Limited(002594) e platform 3.0 model seal as an example, the seal is positioned as a medium-sized vehicle, the size is similar to the compact Qin plus EV, and the single vehicle cost of the two is expected to be approximately the same. Anxin securities estimates that the gross profit margin of Qin plus EV is about 20% – 25%. Considering the pure electric vehicle subsidy of 18000 yuan and the dealer rebate of 10%, it is estimated that the single vehicle cost of Qin plus EV is about 117000-125000 yuan. Compared with Camry, a fuel car of the same grade, Byd Company Limited(002594) seal has similar wheelbase (longer), but smaller size, and the single vehicle cost is expected to be significantly lower than the latter.
Due to consumers’ higher willingness and price for electric vehicles, and the pure electric platform models are lower than fuel vehicles, the profitability of electric vehicles is expected to significantly exceed fuel vehicles. Anxin securities still takes Byd Company Limited(002594) seal as an example. Based on its model positioning, it is estimated that the parity price of seal after subsidy is 150000-200000 yuan, and its single vehicle cost is roughly the same as that of Qin plusev (117000-125000 yuan). Considering that the subsidy for pure electric vehicles will decline by 30% in 2022, assuming that the dealer rebate is 10%, it is discussed in two cases: assuming that the average selling price of seals after subsidy is 170000 yuan, it is estimated that the gross profit margin of seals is expected to reach 25% – 30%; Assuming that the average selling price
