On the first trading day of 2022, coal took the lead in “becoming popular” in the commodity market.
As of the close, thermal coal, coking coal and coke futures closed up 6.3%, 5.6% and 4.8% respectively.
On the A-share market, the coal and power equipment sectors led the gains. As of the closing Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) (000552. SZ) limit, Anyuan Coal Industry Group Co.Ltd(600397) (600397. SH) rose 6.6%.
On the news side, during China’s new year’s Day holiday, the Indonesian government announced to stop coal export to alleviate the shortage of coal supply and power supply in the country.
Some industry insiders told the first financial reporter that Indonesia’s measures to restrict coal export or tighten the supply of the global coal market, but from the perspective of policy implementation, the number of Mines involved in export and China’s fall in coal demand in January, the impact of the incident on China’s coal price is limited and the coal price will not rise sharply.
coal price is limited
According to foreign media reports, Indonesia has decided to ban coal export from January 1 to 31, 2022 due to concerns about China’s insufficient power supply. Even the coal ships that are loading and unfinished will be transported to Indonesian power plants.
However, according to Zhou Tai, a coal industry analyst at Minsheng securities, the ban is short-term and difficult to sustain in the long term. According to his analysis, according to the data of the Ministry of energy and mineral resources of Indonesia, as of December 10, 2021, the total coal output of Indonesia was 560 million tons, which is expected to reach 609 million tons in 2021, 637 million tons to 664 million tons in 2022, and the consumption is expected to be 190 million tons, accounting for about 30% of the total output. Based on its low coal consumption in China, the export ban is expected to be short-term and difficult to last for a long time.
In China’s coal market, in 2021, the coal price fell after a sharp rise. Until December 2021, the dynamic coal price continued to maintain a weak shock pattern.
In 2022, under the influence of the supply guarantee policy, the coal output and supply increased significantly, the prices of coal mines in the origin were stable, medium and down, and most coal mine prices showed a downward channel. According to the analysis of Huatai futures, the coal inventory of downstream power plants continues to increase slowly, reaching a new high of nearly two years for three consecutive weeks.
According to the data of the General Administration of customs, from January to November 2021, China imported 29.232 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, an increase of 8.7% over the previous October. In November, China imported 35.052 million tons of coal and lignite, with a month on month increase of 30.1% and a year-on-year increase of 198.03%.
Huatai futures analysis said that next, with the accelerated release of China’s new coal production capacity, the output will further increase, or there will be a phased oversupply situation. Superimposed on the implementation of the national supply guarantee policy, there is still room for coal prices to fall. In terms of import, under the epidemic situation and international energy tension next year, the increment of imported coal is generally limited.
energy commodities are still the “protagonist” of 2022
In 2021, the CRB commodity index reached a new high in the past seven years. Among them, the price of bulk commodities dominated by coal fluctuated sharply. Especially after entering the third quarter, the wind coal and steel indexes increased by 47% and 20% respectively in the third quarter of 2021.
According to the analysis of the above industry insiders, under the global epidemic environment, the continuous quantitative easing resonated with the local replenishment cycle, resulting in the super rise cycle of global commodities last year. However, in the global field, it is not new demand, but more manufacturing transferred to China. Under the background of the gradual change of old and new energy sources, it is expected that the energy theme investment in the commodity market will still be the “protagonist” in 2022.
CITIC futures research believes that the contradiction between supply and demand of energy will be greatly alleviated in 2022, and the supply pressure will be gradually improved under the high price drive and policy pressure. Among them, the gap between coal supply and demand will be repaired, and the price focus will move down significantly; The growth of crude oil demand has slowed down due to the impact of the global economic downturn, and the focus of oil price may move downward; Under the background of carbon neutralization, the demand for natural gas remains stable, and the space for significant adjustment is expected to be limited.
Lu Bin, research director of HSBC Jinxin fund, told the first financial reporter that new energy is expected to usher in a systematic valuation improvement in 2022. In his opinion, new energy vehicles have several major sub circuits such as downstream vehicles, midstream materials and upstream resources. Among them, it can be further subdivided into different fine molecular industries such as battery equipment, power cell, thermal management, electrolyte in the middle reaches, diaphragm, negative electrode materials, lithium and cobalt in the upstream.
However, industry insiders also pointed out that the global manufacturing industry is expected to maintain prosperity in 2022, and China’s economy is facing the thrust of transformation. New energy development and carbon emission not only need time, but also need the maturity of alternative conditions.
(First Finance)
