On January 4, the National Bureau of statistics released the market price changes of important means of production in the circulation field in late December 2021. According to the monitoring of the market prices of 50 important means of production in 9 categories in the national circulation field, the prices of 12 products increased, 34 decreased and 4 remained unchanged in late December 2021 compared with mid December. Among them, live pigs (external three yuan) were 16 yuan per kilogram, a month on month decrease of 1.8%.
Ma Liyuan, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang information, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that in mid December 2021, the hot and humid weather was not conducive to the production of cured meat in the south. In addition, due to the impact of covid-19 pneumonia, the market terminal demand in the sales area was weak; At the same time, the annual plan of large-scale farms was launched intensively, and the anti price mentality of retail investors was loose. In addition, some small and medium-sized pigs were launched in advance, and the supply of pigs increased, resulting in a downward trend in the price of pigs in China in the middle of the year. In late December 2021, boosted by the winter solstice, the demand of the north and the South improved slightly, but the supply of pigs was still sufficient. After the decline, the price maintained a volatile trend, and the average price was slightly lower than that in the middle of the year.
According to the monitoring of the "national Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale market price information system" of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, from December 24, 2021 to December 30, 2021, the wholesale price of pork was 23.47 yuan / kg, a month on month decrease of 1.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.5%. The wholesale price of pork has experienced a slight decline after rising for eight consecutive weeks since mid October. This week is the third consecutive week of decline in the near future.
Near the Spring Festival, what trend will pork prices show in January? Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the Economic Research Department of the China Center for international economic exchanges, told the Securities Daily that from the perspective of the trend of pig price, the fluctuation of pig price will continue in a short time with the departure of the new year's Day holiday. However, with the approaching of the spring festival consumption season, the consumption of pig meat market will improve, and the possibility of sharp decline in pig price is small.
According to Ma Liyuan's analysis, January 2022 is the production capacity release period, and the slaughter volume of large-scale breeding groups is still likely to increase. In addition, winter is the high incidence period of various diseases, some small weight pigs are released in advance, and the supply of pigs is abundant. At the same time, the demand side is favorable in the middle and early days of January, with less boost. The market may enter the dull transition period between the curing season and the two peak periods of goods preparation before the Spring Festival. It is expected that the pig price may continue to decline in the middle and early days of January. In the late part of the year, all localities have successively entered the stock preparation stage of the Spring Festival. The demand for pigs may usher in the peak of the whole year, and the price may stop falling and rise slightly. Overall, the average price of pigs in China fell in January or month on month.
On December 27, 2021, when the meeting of directors of the national Department of agriculture and rural areas studied and deployed the key work in 2022, it said that the regulation mechanism of pig production capacity should be implemented to stabilize pig production.
In fact, the trend of pig price fluctuation in 2022 is basically clear in the first half of the year. According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the number of piglets in stock from June to October 2021 is high, so it can be inferred that there is too much production capacity in the first half of 2022, so the pig price will also go down.
Xin Guochang, deputy director of animal husbandry and Veterinary Bureau, believes that the lowest point of pig price in 2022 is from March to may, and pig price may fall below the cost line from February to March. Therefore, pig farmers should be prepared to reduce feeding costs in time to deal with this risk.
(Securities Daily)
