We believe that the investment strategy of the chemical industry is to invest in systematic innovation and low-cost expansion. The next wave of industrial pattern of chemical industry depends on talent competition. The chemical industry has changed from a simple capital intensive industry to a talent and capital intensive industry. The latecomers can’t surpass the capital and can only stare at the latecomers. Therefore, the periodicity of the chemical industry becomes weaker. With effective incentives, excellent management and continuous innovation, excellent companies have created unshakable advantages in technology iteration, low cost and efficient service, and conquered cities and territories in the global market.
Carbon neutralization may bring disruptive changes and opportunities to the chemical industry
Carbon neutralization has a far-reaching impact on the chemical industry. According to npcpi statistics, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and basic chemical industry lead all industries in carbon emission, accounting for about 18% of the total national carbon emission, of which “process carbon emission” accounts for about 6% and “engineering carbon emission” accounts for about 12%, which is greatly affected by the 3060 carbon neutralization target. From the perspective of industry evolution, we believe that the chemical industry is expected to experience three stages in the context of carbon neutrality in the next 40 years:
The first stage reaches the peak step by step. There are many chemical products. The energy consumption and carbon emission of each product are different, and its carbon peak requirements may be different. We understand that for high energy consuming products or industries, it does not mean that there is no development, but the peak will be reached first, and low energy consuming products or industries are expected to obtain a longer growth window;
The second stage of future competition is downstream and overseas. With the carbon peak, the upstream bulk raw materials in China’s chemical industry hit the ceiling due to relatively high energy consumption, but without a large amount of new production capacity, the profit center increased significantly. The huge cash flow obtained by large chemical enterprises either invested in the downstream fine chemicals and new materials, or continued to expand the production capacity of similar products, Just transfer the new capacity to countries or regions with greater carbon capacity. In the second stage, chemical enterprises may face large-scale technological transformation of public works, and use green energy alternatives to reduce energy consumption, so as to reduce the tax costs related to carbon neutralization;
The third stage is the era of bio based materials and energy. Chemical products are closely related to people’s lives, and the demand will not disappear because of policies. However, under the goal of carbon neutralization, fossil based materials may face subversive impact locally. Bio based materials are a possible alternative / supplement. With the decrease of the cost of bio based materials, the increase of the cost of fossil based materials (the increase of carbon emission taxes) and the breakthrough of bio based materials of “non grain” raw materials, bio based materials are expected to become a new bottom material for global industry.
It is worth emphasizing that the above is the idea of industry evolution for 40 years. 3060 mainly affects the ceiling of long-term high energy consuming products or industrial development, and has little impact on the approved planning projects. In addition, a series of operable policies will evolve under the 3060 goal. With the implementation of specific policies and the breakthrough of new technologies (including synthetic biology, new energy storage technology, new nuclear power technology, new recovery technology, etc.), the three stages we understand may also be staggered.
According to the “14th five year plan” for the development of raw material industry, the proportion of new material industry in raw material industry has increased significantly
On December 29, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of raw material industry. Raw material industry includes petrochemical, chemical, iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials and other industries, as well as new material industry. It is the foundation of the real economy, the basic industry supporting the development of the national economy and the key field to win international competitive advantage. It is the main force of industrial foundation reconstruction and the main battlefield of industrial green development.
According to the basic principles of “innovation leading, market leading, supply and demand coordination and green security”, the plan puts forward the overall development direction and 15-year long-term objectives in the next five years. By 2025, the ability of raw material industry to guarantee and lead the high-quality development of manufacturing industry will be significantly enhanced; The growth rate of added value maintained a reasonable level, and its proportion in the manufacturing industry was basically stable; The scale of new material industry continues to increase, accounting for a significant increase in the proportion of raw material industry; Initially form an industrial development pattern with higher quality, better efficiency, better layout, greener and safer. By 2035, it will become a highland for the R & D, production and application of important raw material products in the world, the competitiveness of new material industry will be comprehensively improved, the green and low-carbon development level will be advanced in the world, and the industrial system will be safe, independent and controllable. Focusing on the development objectives, the plan puts forward the key tasks of “five modernizations” such as high-end industrial supply, rationalization of industrial structure, greening of industrial development, digitization of industrial transformation and safety of industrial system from five aspects: supply level, industrial structure, green and low-carbon, digital transformation and industrial security. In order to promote the smooth implementation of the “five modernizations” task, the plan has deployed five major projects, including new material innovation and development project, low-carbon manufacturing pilot project, digital empowerment project, strategic resource security project and chain reinforcement project.
First, implement the new material innovation and development project. By breaking through key varieties and improving public platforms, the support capacity of key materials is improved. Second, implement the pilot project of low-carbon manufacturing. Through the implementation of technological research, the promotion of a number of advanced technologies and the construction of pilot projects, we will promote substantive progress in low-carbon manufacturing in the raw material industry. Third, implement the digital empowerment project. Through pilot demonstration, construction of service platform and improvement of standard system, a number of intelligent manufacturing demonstration factories and industrial Internet platforms for key industries have been formed to promote the deep integration of raw material industry and digitization. Fourth, implement the strategic resource security project. Through prospecting operations and base construction, a stable and open resource guarantee system has been built, and the guarantee capacity of some mineral resources has been improved. Fifth, implement the chain reinforcement project. By jointly tackling key problems, expanding supporting channels, encouraging financing innovation, establishing an information sharing platform, forming a consortium, enhancing the development initiative, and effectively easing the breakpoints and blocking points of the main industrial chain.
Key directions of technological innovation in petrochemical industry: promote high selective catalysis, high-efficiency membrane separation, intrinsic safety of hazardous processes and other technologies, and research and development of new products such as special metallocene polyolefins, high-end lubricants, high-purity / ultra-high-purity chemicals and industrial special gases, methane coupling to olefins and so on. Promote the engineering of clean and efficient utilization of coal, short process of coal to chemicals, preparation of the whole industrial chain of bio based materials, low-cost harmless treatment and resource utilization of phosphogypsum, carbon dioxide capture, storage and comprehensive utilization. Promote the industrial application of new microchannel reactor equipment and continuous flow process, storage and transportation safety of hazardous chemicals, industrial Internet and intelligent manufacturing, low global warming potential refrigerant substitutes and other technologies.
Innovation and development project of new materials: break through key varieties, focus on key application fields such as large aircraft, aeroengine, integrated circuit, information and communication, biological industry and energy industry, and overcome superalloys, aviation light alloy materials, ultra-high purity rare earth metals and compounds, high performance special steels, degradable biomaterials, special coatings, photoresists, targets, polishing fluids Industrial gas, bionic synthetic rubber, artificial crystal, high-performance functional glass, advanced ceramic materials, special separation membrane, high-performance rare earth magnetic, catalytic, optical function, hydrogen storage materials and other key materials. Improve the public platform and build manufacturing innovation centers such as high-end polyolefins, rare metals, powder metallurgy, advanced glass and advanced ceramics.
Low carbon manufacturing pilot project: implement technical breakthrough, organize the research and development of heavy and low-quality oil processing and efficient conversion and utilization, large-scale high-efficiency and energy-saving advanced coal gasification, production of chemical products with carbon dioxide as raw material, hydrogen rich carbon recycling blast furnace, hydrogen energy kiln, hydrogen based direct reduction and other technologies. Promote advanced technology. The petrochemical industry promotes low-carbon technologies such as direct production of chemicals from crude oil, intelligent micro reaction and continuous production of fine chemical products, and biological fermentation of industrial tail gas containing carbon monoxide to ethanol. Build pilot projects. Organize the implementation of low-carbon smelting pilot projects such as hydrogen metallurgy and non blast furnace ironmaking, carry out the pilot promotion and application of carbon dioxide capture and storage technology in cement, coal chemical industry and other industries, promote the application of carbon dioxide in oil displacement and synthetic organic chemicals, and carry out the pilot of low-carbon cement, hydrogen energy kiln and carbon fixing building materials.
（ Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) ）
