Indonesia’s export ban boosted the coal market in the short term. Energy transformation is still the main line. The price of thermal coal continued to fall this week. The spot price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang fell to 800 yuan. The high inventory of power plants and the lower than expected growth of daily consumption in winter led to weak demand for thermal coal and pressure on coal prices. This week, the supply side has been tightened in stages, and the operating rate of producing areas has declined. This is mainly due to the increase of shutdown and maintenance coal mines at the end of the year, loose supply and pressure on coal prices. Under the background of coal price pressure, the enthusiasm of coal enterprises to ensure supply and production has decreased. In terms of imports this week, on December 31, the Indonesian government announced a one month (January 2022) export ban to ease its energy crisis in China. On the one hand, Indonesia’s suspension of exports is expected to tighten China’s coal supply from January to February. Indonesia is the largest importer of coal in China, and the coal type is mainly power coal. Since the coal import ban in Australia, the proportion of Indonesian coal has further increased. From January to November 2021, China imported 292 million tons of coal, including 178 million tons of Indonesian coal, accounting for 61% of the total import. In a single month, Indonesia imported 19.5 million tons of coal in a single month in November, accounting for 56% of the total monthly import and about 5% of the total supply (China’s output + import). At the same time, as the Indonesian coal import market is mainly concentrated in large power plants along the southeast coast, this part of the demand will turn to domestic trade coal, so it has a great impact on the Chinese market. On the other hand, the shortage of coal supply is a global problem. Indonesia is the world’s largest coal exporter. The main consumer markets are East and Southeast Asia. The annual export volume will reach 400 million tons in 2020. This will further aggravate the shortage of international energy supply and is expected to boost the price of international coal market. According to the later judgment, after the peak season comes to an end, the focus of the policy may be to ensure safety. The current ultra-high load production intensity is unsustainable, superimposed with the impact of Indonesia’s coal export ban, there is a great possibility of tightening the supply after the Spring Festival, the fundamentals are large, the possibility of oversupply is small, and the coal price is expected to stop falling and stabilize. In the medium and long term, the era of energy transformation is coming. In the next few years, coal supply and demand may still be in tight balance, coal prices will continue to be supported, and the coal industry will gradually enter a high-profit era. The next 5-10 years will be a strategic opportunity period for the layout and transformation of coal enterprises. Abundant cash flow is enough to support the layout and transformation of new energy, new materials and other new tracks of coal enterprises, and comply with the direction of double carbon policy, We are optimistic about the transformation and growth potential of traditional energy enterprises. Targets with stable performance and high dividends: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Objects with expected growth benefits: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) ; Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation target beneficiaries: Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , power investment energy, Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Coal power industry chain: the price of power coal continued to fall this week, and the supply of origin tightened at the end of the year. The price of power coal continued to fall this week (December 27-december 31, 2021). The spot price of q5500 power coal in QinGang fell to 800 yuan. The decline in coal prices was mainly due to the high inventory of power plants and the wide balance between supply and demand. The support for coal prices was basically weak. In terms of demand this week, cooling supported the month on month growth of daily consumption of the power plant. At present, the de stocking efforts are increased, but the coal storage and available days are still high, and the demand is weak as a whole; In terms of supply, the supply side has been tightened in stages this week, and the operating rate of producing areas has declined, mainly due to the increase of shutdown and maintenance coal mines at the end of the year, loose supply and pressure on coal prices, and the enthusiasm of coal enterprises to ensure supply and production has decreased. Overall, the current supply and demand fundamentals show wide balance.
Coal, coke and steel industry chain: Double coke rose this week, and the steel plant is expected to resume production. Coke: the coke price increased by 100 yuan this week. In terms of demand, although the current iron and steel production restriction is still strictly implemented, the expectation for the resumption of blast furnace production in the later stage is enhanced, the steel mills have started to replenish the warehouse one after another, and the margin at the demand end is slightly better; In terms of supply, the intensity of environmental protection and production restriction is not reduced, the operating rate of coke enterprises is low, at the same time, some backward production capacity is shut down at the end of the year, and the supply side is gradually tightened. At the same time, with the support of coking coal cost, the coke price is temporarily better. Coking coal: the prices of coking coal producing areas generally increased this week. In terms of supply, the coal mines that completed the supply guarantee task at the end of the year took the initiative to stop and reduce production. At the same time, the safety situation was severe, the operating rate of main producing areas declined, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal in terms of import was still low, and the supply of coking coal showed a tightening trend; On the demand side, with the expected increase in the resumption of production of iron and steel blast furnace, the willingness of downstream coke steel enterprises to replenish inventory has increased, and coke coal inventory has continued to rise.
Risk tips: downside risk of economic growth, mismatch risk of supply and demand, accelerated substitution risk of renewable energy
(open source securities)
