Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing in the coming year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. On the first trading day of the new year, the index once fell, but under the support and boost of many parties, the spring market is still worth looking forward to, and the continued allocation of bargain hunting is still the main tone.
In the morning, both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened high. After opening, they dived lower and turned green, and then continued to decline. They kept hitting new lows in the day. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and pharmaceutical heavyweights were low, and the gem once fell sharply. In terms of sectors, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery led the rise, media, coal, textile and clothing led the rise, power equipment led the fall, and non-ferrous metals, food and beverage and building materials fell.
On the first trading day of the new year, combined with the performance of the global market during the new year’s day, based on the continuous rebound before the festival, the high opening of the index is the market expected by the market, but the decline after the high opening is really unexpected. There are not too many signs, nor too many bad news. The decline of medicine and other heavyweights directly dragged down the index. For the pharmaceutical sector, the decline in the morning is mainly medical services, and the important is that the overall performance has been eye-catching recently, which is expected to boost the whole pharmaceutical sector. If there is any adjustment in the short term, it is still a good opportunity for medium-term latency.
Back in the market, the index once fell in the intraday, which is worth watching, but the Spring Festival market remains the same. one side, Statistics of Securities Times: “Since 2011, on the first trading day after the new year’s day, the overall rising probability of the market is high, the rising probability of the index exceeds 60%, and the rising probability of the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem exceeds 50%. In the first week after the festival, the rising probability of the market will be higher. The data show that the rising probability of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen composite index exceeds 70% in the first week after the new year’s day, and the rising probability of the gem index exceeds 60% On the other hand, the liquidity release period in January and the policy expectation of the two sessions in March will enhance the market’s risk appetite. In addition, the northward capital return before the festival, under the net inflow for four consecutive days, the inflow for two days has exceeded 10 billion, which has a positive impact on the market. The latest PMI once again stands on the boom and bust line, rising continuously, and the expectation of economic recovery will also support and boost the market;
Therefore, the consolidation of the short-term market still belongs to the repetition of the upward trend since November. With the support of the overall stability of fundamentals and liquidity and the support of the steady growth policy, the good trend of the market will continue. Based on the high probability performance of the previous spring market, the spring market is still worth looking forward to. Of course, it should be noted that this year, with the start of the monetary tightening cycle of the Federal Reserve, the global capital market will also face the suppression of new liquidity tightening, which will also interfere with the A-share market. We should pay attention to the continuation of the possible structural market.
On the whole, the stock market is a barometer of money. With the central bank’s RRR reduction and LPR reduction, the monetary easing cycle has started. Under the expectation of liquidity easing, the market boost expectation is increasing. Under the tone of steady growth policy, the support of the market is still strong. Continue to be optimistic about the good structural market, bargain hunting can still be added to the spring market, especially the valuation repair and make-up expectation of blue chips.
(Jufeng Finance)
