A shares ushered in the first trading day of the new year today. The three major indexes collectively closed down, of which the Shanghai index fell 0.20% to close at 3632.33 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.44% to close at 14791.31; The gem index fell 2.18% to close at 3250.16. The market turnover reached 1.26 trillion yuan, the industry sector rose more or fell less, the traditional Chinese medicine sector set off a rising tide, and the cultural media, agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishing, tourism and hotel sector led the rise; The “track stocks” that led the rise last year fell sharply today, with energy metals, photovoltaic equipment and wind power equipment leading the decline.
Today’s news:
1. Thirteen departments including the state Internet Information Office revised and issued the measures for network security review
2. The latest market value of the top 500 is coming! Which companies are listed in the top 20 shuffle? (full list attached)
3. Network Information Office: algorithm recommendation service providers shall not use algorithms to influence network public opinion and avoid supervision and management
4. A-Shares 2022 how to go? Top ten securities companies: it is expected to usher in the rise of index level and focus on three directions!
5. Heavy! The latest top 50 performance list of fund companies is coming
6. In December, Caixin China’s manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.9
7. Listed on Wednesday! The largest IPO of A-Shares in recent 10 years has come, with an average daily profit of 295 million and a abandonment amount of more than 700 million
8. See the big meat stick again? In the first week of the new year, 8 new shares appeared. The first share of A-share listed banks this year came on stage!
For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that looking forward to 2022, under the background of falling profit end and loose restraint at denominator end, the A-share market will still maintain a range shock with top and bottom, and the overall operation rhythm of the market will be consistent with the general tone of “taking multiple measures to promote the smooth operation of the market and resolutely prevent big ups and downs and urgent ups and downs” of the CSRC. Further focus on this round of cross year offensive. This round of agitation will be more gentle in rhythm. On the one hand, the periodic drive at the denominator end is weakening. At present, the market has fully expected a wide currency rhythm in the first half of 2022. On the other hand, the molecular side still needs to be further verified. The marginal drive brought by the steady growth policy will be verified successively through economic / financial data, which will be the main driver to consolidate this round of cross year market. On the whole, this round of cross year offensive is progressing smoothly in rhythm, and it is more necessary to play steadily in adjusting the structure.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that in terms of policy, the signal of “steady growth” is clear, and the follow-up policy is expected to be strengthened. Fundamentals: it is estimated that the GDP in 22 years will be 5% ~ 5.5% year-on-year, and the roe peak of A-Shares will be 22q1. Liquidity: the long-term trend of asset allocation transferring to equity remains unchanged, and the supply and demand of funds in the stock market is unbalanced in 22 years. Fed interest rate hike: it is possible to start from 22q2, when there will be upward pressure on China US bond interest rates. Style: 22 year value, slightly dominant market, CSI 300 is stronger than CSI 500. Hard technology: the absolute value of profit growth in 22 years is high, but it is lower than that in 21 years. The opportunity for valuation digestion is market adjustment. Consumption: the current valuation is medium and high, the performance growth rate has dropped, and the big opportunity still needs to wait. Optimistic about the market in the first quarter, the configuration is balanced, such as undervalued financial real estate, high prosperity hard technology, and consumption following the rebound.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities believes that the recent A-share adjustment, the differentiation of long-term and short-term interest rates, and the narrowing of term interest margin more reflect the expectation of economic recession and concerns about the effect of credit easing policy. In this context, the A-share market is expected to pick up in January this year, and the overall performance should be stronger than that in December last year, mainly because the risk appetite and liquidity at the beginning of the year will be improved. However, we should have reasonable expectations for the duration and height of the market this spring, because compared with the beginning of 2021, both economic expectations and incremental funds are lower than last year. From the perspective of economic expectations, investors had recovery expectations for the economy at the beginning of last year, while the current economic data showed weak performance, and both supply and demand showed a downturn. From the perspective of incremental funds, the issuance of new funds reached nearly 500 billion in January last year, and the issuance scale of new funds this year is difficult to compare with that at the beginning of last year. In the spring market over the years, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) believes that this year’s spring market should be weak. On the other hand, the strength of the steady growth policy remains to be seen. The release of financial data after the spring festival may be an important time point.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) believes that with the continuous cashing and strengthening of the “wide currency” and marginal “wide credit” windows, the negative factors gradually subside, and the index market is still on the way. China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that the market is expected to usher in an index level rise in 2022, and even a wave of market similar to “mini version 2014”. 1. Under the downward pressure of the economy, the “steady growth” on the policy side has been in force, and the market has entered the window of “wide currency” and “wide credit”. Positive signals such as interest rate reduction and reserve requirement reduction continue to appear, and the market expectation of policy relaxation will continue to rise. 2. The relaxed credit margin environment usually leads to the repair and rise of heavyweight sectors such as finance and real estate, which is often accompanied by the rise of index level. 3. The difference from 2014 is that, on the one hand, 2014 is a comprehensive and systematic relaxation. At present, under the general tone of “real estate does not fry” and “trust but not lift” of infrastructure construction, the intensity and space of policy easing are relatively limited, which is more likely to be phased and underpinning relaxation. On the other hand, 2014 gradually evolved into a round of leveraged cattle, but the current market leverage is weak. Taking floor leverage as an example, the proportion of two financial institutions in the total market turnover increased rapidly from 2013 to 2015, and was close to 30% by the end of 2014. In contrast, the current two financial transactions account for only about 7.6%, and institutional funds are still the leading force in the market.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) said that looking forward to the restless market in spring of 2022, it is suggested that the “spring restlessness” of A-Shares grasp the “double carbon new cycle” and economic changes. Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) said that some investors are worried that the huge IPO of China Mobile will have a negative impact on the market and think there is no need to worry too much. At present, the market is still in the “feasible stage”. It is suggested to continue to focus on the industrial / policy clues under the “double carbon new cycle” and the medium-term prosperity expectation of the industry under the guidance of the “high-frequency expected prosperity observation model”, and layout the restlessness in spring. It is suggested to continue the balance between high area and low area for industry configuration, (1) reduce the reserve requirement and stabilize the real estate chain (securities companies, white power and consumer building materials); (2) “Double carbon new cycle” + steady growth of new infrastructure (power battery, green power operation, coal chemical industry and military industry); (3) Ppi-cpi scissors difference convergence (food processing).
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that at the beginning of the year, the local two sessions and the central two sessions will be held successively. Under the triple pressure of “demand contraction, supply impact and weakening expectation”, the “steady growth” policy will be actively promoted. Traditional infrastructure, real estate and new infrastructure (new energy, high-end manufacturing and hard technology) are the three main focuses: the Ministry of Finance issued the new special debt limit in 2022 in advance, and infrastructure investment was carried out moderately in advance; The real estate policy seeks “stability”, because the city implements policies + encourages real estate enterprises to merge and resolve industry risks; Structural adjustment and progress, new energy, hard science and technology are the key support directions. In January, due to the spread of sporadic epidemic in China (some regions or local Chinese New Year celebrations) and the disturbance of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the A-share industry may show differentiation, and the rapid rotation of plates has become the main feature. In January, the market is well balanced. Three main lines of allocation: 1. “Traditional infrastructure + real estate” under the background of “steady growth”, such as building materials and real estate; 2) The main investment lines of “high-end manufacturing & hard technology”: new energy (vehicle), military industry, electronics, etc; 3) Strong themes that benefit from the promotion of policies (support), such as meta universe (media), traditional Chinese medicine, etc.
Guosheng Securities believes that, first of all, in the next six months, whether it is the top-down estimation or the correction based on the individual stock profit expectation, A-Shares are in the profit downward cycle from 2021q4 to 2022q2, and the marginal change of performance begins to tend to the market. Secondly, since 2021, institutional conglomerates have continued to kill the valuation, and now it has fallen back to five years. From the perspective of the relationship between valuation and profit, the valuation of traditional core assets (excluding institutional group stocks of new energy and semiconductor) deviates from the profit expectation, and has medium-term allocation value at this stage. Moreover, as the main incremental force in 2021, the probability of public offering and private placement continuing to exceed expectations in 2022 is decreasing. On the contrary, allocated funds (venture capital) may have a marginal positive contribution in 2022. In conclusion, the significant excess return of small ticket in 21 years is driven by variables such as profit cycle, market price performance ratio and incremental funds, and these conditional variables are reversing in the medium term in the future. Therefore, perhaps from the dimension of longer cycle, small ticket can still continue to create excess; However, in the next six months, it should be the balance period of size and style, and we should pay more attention to the return of the market.
