I. there may be deviations in market views
The index is weak, but the market profit-making effect is still obvious. It is mainly driven by the peaking and rest of the mechanism leading plate. At this stage, the strong structure may actually be in a restless market in spring. In the next stage, driven by the institutional sector, the non institutional strong sector may have callback pressure. In the next stage, it may be an opportunity for institutions and strong risk preference funds to resonate and rebound.
II deviation analysis
The Shanghai index fell 0.2% and the gem fell more than 2%. As of the closing, 1413 companies rose and 631 fell in the Shanghai stock market. In terms of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect, the total net inflow exceeded 400 million yuan. The top gainers are aquatic products, pork, cloud games, meta universe, online Red economy, intellectual property rights, etc., which are basically the direction of fund position adjustment or position increase on the right; The largest declines were lithium mines, diamond cultivation, polysilicon, CXO, lithium extraction from salt lakes, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, etc., which were basically dominated by institutions. Therefore, we believe that in addition to the periodic stampede caused by too concentrated shareholding, other subjects still maintain a relatively positive mood of participation.
In the previous view, many indexes, whether the market has changed from weak to strong, we need to pay attention to whether the position reduction behavior of institutions is coming to an end. It also believes that with the easing of the purchase restriction of star fund managers' products by institutions in December, the pressure of passive position reduction faced by institutions will be gradually relieved, and driven by the passive position building of new funds, the market is expected to gradually enter the restless market stage in spring. Whether this logic is still supported is believed to be the general concern of current investors.
Based on the current situation, in addition to the relatively weak performance of the multi institutional sector, the non institutional sector has a large number of strong risk preference funds and the incremental allocation of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect, which has promoted the low-level stabilization of most sectors or entered the disk characteristics with strong band (especially the plates and themes driven by the directional diffusion represented by the meta universe). Therefore, we believe that the impact of the institutional sector on the short-term market covers up the real situation that a considerable part of the sector has a profit-making effect to a certain extent. Therefore, we believe that the institutional disturbance does not represent the real situation that the spring market is already on the road. However, it should be noted that with the decline of the institutional sector and the capital water level difference formed by the strength of the non institutional sector, we believe that the market in the next stage may be driven by the weakness of the institutional sector, and the non institutional sector with large increase may enter the risk of callback. This is what we think needs to be emphasized at present.
(Bandung securities network)
