Pay attention to the cross-year market, still suggest to pay attention to the trading opportunities of the securities sector, leave room for loose monetary policy, the high-level continues to set the tone and reduce the expectations, and China’s zeroing policy is not afraid of the impact of variant viruses. Waiting for the liquidity to be released as scheduled, the restless market in spring may continue to gain momentum, and the sector still maintains a stronger rating than the big market, so as to grasp the trading opportunities of high-quality securities companies with high-quality new third board business, high-quality wealth management and institutional business.
Pay attention to the layout of securities companies and fear the influence of variant viruses
This week, the stabilization of the securities sector led the valuation fluctuation to rise to near 1.76 times Pb, and the performance is expected to end smoothly. In the short term, mainstream institutions have not released more research on the impact of variant viruses. It is expected that due to China’s epidemic clearing policy, the judgment impact is less than that of the international market. This week, the market shows that the cross-year market fluctuation is increasing, and the market may still be accumulating in spring. We need to wait for the liquidity investment to be realized. We judge that the probability of realization is high. In the medium and long term, as the new round of policy cycle window approaches, it is expected that more capital market policies will be issued to promote the long-term development of the capital market and look forward to the follow-up upward space. We still suggest focusing on securities companies with outstanding wealth management transformation, rich business resources of the Beijing stock exchange and high-quality institutional business performance.
Opportunities in venture capital sector need attention
Affected by the establishment of the Beijing stock exchange, it attaches importance to the allocation opportunities of high-quality venture capital stocks and is vigilant against the realization of favorable conditions.
Long term focus on undervaluing the allocation opportunities of insurance stocks
At present, the yield to maturity of 10-year medium-term bonds continues to drop to around 2.78%. Affected by variant virus and marginal easing policy, it may decline further. Compared with China’s long-term stable economic fundamentals, the risk-free interest rate expectation reflected by the current stock price is pessimistic, the regulators continue to promote market reform, the allocation value of insurance stocks with high dividend and undervalued value is prominent, and they are optimistic about valuation repair in the medium and long term, so they still need to pay attention to the allocation value. At the same time, we also need to pay close attention to the epidemic development in overseas areas, the Fed’s interest rate action and the trend of China US relations. In addition, from the transaction level, the win rate of cross year allocation of insurance stocks in spring is generally high, superimposed with the improvement of market wind bias, which is expected to improve the yield of the sector.
Risk tip: Sino US friction intensifies the risk; Risk of continued narrowing of interest rate spread between China and the United States; Risk of SEC suspending IPO registration of Chinese companies; Geopolitical risk; Macroeconomic downside risk; Evergrande’s handling of events is not as good as expected; Guard against the risk of short-term thematic speculation; The systematic decline risk of stock market; Risk of stricter supervision; Risk of continued spread of pneumonia.
（ China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) ）
