Investment summary:
Market review:
As of the closing on December 31, the coal sector fell 4.05% this week, the CSI 300 index rose 0.39%, and the rise of the coal sector lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 4.44%. From the sector ranking, the weekly growth rate of the coal industry ranks 30th among Shenwan 31 sectors, with an increase of 39.6% year to date, ranking 3rd among Shenwan 31 sectors.
Talk every Monday:
Indonesia adjusted its coal export policy, and the transformation of coal enterprises raised the industry Valuation: the Indonesian government decided to ban coal export in January to alleviate the power crisis caused by China’s coal supply shortage. Due to the influence of Australian coal embargo and other factors, the proportion of Indonesian coal in China’s imported coal has increased to 61% from January to November 2021, with an average monthly import of more than 16 million tons, Indonesia is the largest coal exporter in the international trade market, with an export of about 400 million tons in 2020. Indonesia’s phased embargo may increase the progress of China’s coal depots, push up the fluctuation range of international coal prices, and continue to pay attention to the follow-up implementation of the embargo policy; Recently, the coal supply guarantee policy is still being implemented. At the same time, the daily consumption of the power plant has not increased significantly, the pit mouth price has been reduced, the coal inventory of the northern port and the power plant have rebounded, and the power coal price has dropped significantly. The coal price of Qinhuangdao port (q5500) has decreased by 140 yuan / ton to 800 yuan / ton. With the cooling of the cold wave in many parts of the country, the daily consumption of the power plant has room to rise, It is expected that with the guidance of the national development and Reform Commission and the promotion of the reform of coal pricing mechanism, the fluctuation range of coal price will gradually move closer to the long-term association price, and continue to pay attention to the short-term impact on the supply side caused by the winter security inspection action of origin and the change of Indonesia’s export policy; Steel plant profits were high and coke rose and landed: on Friday, the output of large varieties of steel was + 2.15% (+ 4.73pct) on a week-on-week basis, which was due to the high profitability of steel plants in the south, the subsequent recovery of crude steel output was expected to rise, the enthusiasm of steel plant coke procurement was improved, the coke inventory in the plant continued to increase, and the scope of coke rise and landing in the first round was expanded, The factory price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke increased by 100 yuan / ton to 2660 yuan / ton; The price of coking coal continues to run strongly under the influence of the security inspection action of the main producing areas. The price of Shanxi main coking coal produced in Jingtang Port is flat at 2450 yuan / ton in the week, and the profit of coking enterprises is running at a low level. At present, the profit of steel mills is still at a high level, and the subsequent suppression of coking price by steel enterprises is expected to weaken; Under the influence of factors such as staggered peak production in the heating season, limited production in the Winter Olympic Games and air pollution, the limited production of blast furnace leads to weak demand for coal coke, but the recovery of industrial chain profits and the impact of coking coal supply end are expected to continue to strengthen the price of coal coke;
Market impact: the change of Indonesia’s export policy has a short-term impact on the power coal supply side, and the long-term profit of the coal industry and the expectation of transformation are expected to promote the revaluation of the sector; Under the background of high profitability, the blast furnace production resumption of steel mills is expected to be strong, and the demand for coal coke may gradually improve. In the near future, the coal coke price is expected to strengthen under the background of strengthening the security inspection of the origin; Investment strategy: focus on Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) and Yankuang energy, which benefit from the central rise of Changxie coal price, abundant cash flow and high dividend rate, and pay long-term attention to Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) benefiting from the increase of coking coal price and the deepening of national reform.
Risk tip: the policy strength exceeds the expectation, the demand is less than the expectation, and the power policy changes.
(Shengang securities)
