Most of the global stock markets rose last week. Affected by Omicron, the number of new overseas cases rose again. Fortunately, the severe mortality rate was low. At the beginning of the year, the interest rate of us 10-year Treasury bonds rose 11bp, and the market focused on the minutes of the interest rate meeting in December and non farm employment data to be released this week. In terms of industrial trend, virtual people were introduced into cross year activities on multiple platforms, oculus VR application sales in the United States were hot at Christmas, and the industrialization of meta universe was accelerated. The new forces of car making released the sales data in December, and many car enterprises sold tens of thousands of cars again.
core view
[global stock market performance] most global stock markets rose last week. In US stocks, the Dow and S & P rose 0.8% and 0.1% respectively, while the NASDAQ fell 0.2%. The market is mainly concerned about the rising interest rate of U.S. ten-year Treasury bonds, U.S. economic data, the latest news of Omicron and the global epidemic and vaccination. In terms of the interest rate of us ten-year Treasury bonds, on January 3, the interest rate of us ten-year Treasury bonds climbed to 1.63%, an increase of 11bp over December 31 last year. The rise in the interest rate of ten-year Treasury bonds after 2010 shows investors’ concerns about the tightening of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Previously, the Federal Reserve has indicated that it wants to accelerate the pace of taper, complete it in March next year, and modify its expression of inflation. The dot matrix shows that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least three times next year. On Wednesday, the Fed will release the minutes of the interest rate meeting in December. The market is worried that there will be more hawkish statements in the minutes. In addition, the U.S. December non farm employment data will also be released this week, becoming the focus of investors. in terms of U.S. economic data, the final value of PMI of Markit manufacturing industry in the United States in December was 57.7, the lowest since December 2020, with an expected 57.7 and an initial value of 57.8. in terms of the latest news of Omicron, due to the rapid spread of Omicron abroad, the number of newly confirmed cases in the world rose last week, with an average daily diagnosis of 1.557 million, a record high. in terms of global epidemic and vaccination, last week, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the vaccination range of Pfizer and biontech vaccine booster to further expand to people aged 12 to 15, and shorten the vaccination duration from 6 months to 5 months. At present, the proportion of vaccination in European and American countries is rising rapidly. Among them, the proportion of fully vaccinated population in Germany, France, Britain and the United States is 70.6%, 73.3%, 69.5% and 61.5% respectively. Countries with a high number of new cases last week were the United States, Britain, France, Italy and so on. In terms of industry performance, materials and industry sectors performed relatively well, while energy and daily consumption sectors performed relatively poorly. In terms of change stocks, among the companies with a market value of more than $20 billion that rose sharply in the past week, there are more information technology and optional consumption. Among the companies with a market value of more than $20 billion that led the decline in the past week, there are more software companies in information technology.
[global industry trend] trend 1: meta universe. virtual human was introduced into cross year activities on multiple platforms, and oculus VR application sales in the United States were hot at Christmas. According to Gu Jia’s team of China Merchants media, at present, virtual people and NFT are the first to land in metauniverse. Virtual idol, virtual human live broadcast and virtual human endorsement are rapidly popularized. Many advertisers are also very satisfied with this. Virtual human business is expected to be popularized faster in the future. trend 2: electric intelligent driving. Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal, Tesla, etc. have announced the delivery of new cars in December 2021. The sales of many new car manufacturers have reached tens of thousands again, and the prosperity of the industry is still high.
[important information] Toyota and Mazda: according to Nikkei news, Japanese auto companies, including Toyota and Mazda, will equip their main models with automatic driving technology by about 2022. liandian: liandian has entered the third generation semiconductor field by investing in Lianying. Liandian plans to start with 6-inch gallium nitride (GAN) products, and then expand the layout of silicon carbide (SIC) and develop to 8-inch wafers. Apple: according to media reports, Apple will launch its first Mr headset next year, which may cost about $3000, the most expensive wearable device in Apple’s history.
[industry trend concerns and suggestions] from a medium and long-term perspective, we currently propose to pay attention to the rise of the whole industry chain of carbon neutralization under global attention (photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, hydrogen energy, etc.), the increase in the penetration rate of electric intelligent vehicles under the general trend of electrification and intelligence, as well as the industrial trends of meta universe, intelligent manufacturing, cloud computing, autonomous control, etc.
[risk tip] the individual stocks mentioned in this report only indicate that they are related to relevant topics and do not constitute individual stock investment suggestions.
directory
01
core concerns and investment suggestions
last week, the industry indexes with higher A-share gains were lithium, yuanuniverse, intelligent medical treatment, etc.
last week, the industrial trend of concern in the overseas market was:
1. Metauniverse: during the new year’s activities in 2022, many platforms took the form of virtual people for creative performance. Jiangsu Satellite TV launched virtual people such as Deng Lijun and Luo Tianyi to perform on the same stage with real idols. Oriental satellite TV launched Huang Minghao on the same stage with his digital twin image. Bili Bili launched the virtual idol women’s group “four Jubilee balls”. Phoenix legend holds a new year concert to restore the virtual image of a real person. The virtual host “Xiaoyang”, who appeared in “Hello! Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) ” on Hunan Satellite TV on January 1, may become the first permanent and personalized virtual host in China. In addition, the Seoul municipal government held a virtual cross Year bell ringing ceremony. This year, a new meta universe platform is added. Korean people can ring the bell and take photos through virtual identity.
According to Gu Jia’s team of China Merchants media, at present, virtual people and NFT are the first to land in metauniverse. Virtual idol, virtual human live broadcast and virtual human endorsement are rapidly popularized. Many advertisers are also very satisfied with this. Virtual human business is expected to be popularized faster in the future. Similarly, Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) has also launched the first batch of digital collections for the NFT platform, which is crucial to the metauniverse.
In addition, according to the ranking of free apps in the United States of Apple App store, oculus VR app of meta, the parent company of Facebook, broke a milestone on Christmas day and became the most popular app in Apple’s American app store, beating long-term leading apps such as tiktok, youtube, snapchat and instagram. The permeability of XR is increasing.
2. Electric intelligent driving: Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal and Tesla have announced the delivery of new vehicles in December 2021. Weilai recently announced the delivery volume in December 2021 and the whole year. In December 2021, Weilai delivered 10489 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 49.7%; In 2021, Weilai delivered 91429 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 109.1%, doubling for two consecutive years. On New Year’s day, Xiaopeng automobile also announced the delivery results in December 2021 and the whole year. In December 2021, 16000 sets were delivered, with a year-on-year increase of 181%. In 2021, the total annual delivery volume of Xiaopeng automobile reached 98155 units, 3.6 times that of 2020. In December 2021, ideal cars delivered 14087 ideal one, an increase of 130.0% over December 2020. From January to December 2021, a total of 90491 units were delivered, with a year-on-year increase of 177.4%. Tesla produced about 930400 vehicles in 2021, and delivered nearly 936200 vehicles in the whole year; The output of model s and model x is 24390 and the delivery volume is 24964; The output of model 3 and model y is 906032 and the delivery volume is 911208
With the announcement of sales in December, the US stock electric vehicle sector rose sharply.
investment suggestions: from a medium – and long-term perspective, we currently propose to pay attention to the rise of the whole industrial chain of carbon neutralization under global attention (photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, hydrogen energy, etc.), the increase of the penetration rate of electric intelligent vehicles under the general trend of electrification and intelligence, as well as the industrial trends of meta universe, intelligent manufacturing, cloud computing, autonomous control, etc.
02
global observation: overseas market tracking
1. Global asset performance
Most global stock markets rose last week. In US stocks, the Dow and S & P rose 0.8% and 0.1% respectively, while the NASDAQ fell 0.2%. The market is mainly concerned about the rising interest rate of U.S. ten-year Treasury bonds, U.S. economic data, the latest news of Omicron and the global epidemic and vaccination. In terms of the interest rate of us ten-year Treasury bonds, on January 3, the interest rate of us ten-year Treasury bonds climbed to 1.63%, an increase of 11bp over December 31 last year. The rise in the interest rate of ten-year Treasury bonds after the festival shows investors’ concerns about the tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy. Previously, the Fed has indicated that it wants to accelerate the pace of taper, complete it in March next year, and modify its expression of inflation. The dot matrix shows that the Fed will raise interest rates at least three times next year. On Wednesday, the Fed will release the minutes of the interest rate meeting in December. The market is worried that there will be more hawkish statements in the minutes. In addition, the U.S. December non farm employment data will also be released this week, becoming the focus of investors. in terms of U.S. economic data, the final value of PMI of Markit manufacturing industry in the United States in December was 57.7, the lowest since December 2020, with an expected 57.7 and an initial value of 57.8. US manufacturing output weakened again in December due to material shortages and supplier delays. Although the deterioration of the supply chain is the lightest since May last year, the significantly extended delivery time has once again hindered the factory’s ability to produce finished products. in terms of the latest news of Omicron, due to the rapid spread of Omicron abroad, the number of newly confirmed cases in the world rose last week, with an average daily diagnosis of 1.557 million, a record high. On January 4, Bloomberg quoted data from Johns Hopkins University to report that on January 3 local time, the United States reported more than 1 million new covid-19 confirmed cases in a single day when the Omicron strain swept all aspects of American people’s life. The relatively positive side is that the severe mortality rate of Omicron is low, and the current epidemic in South Africa has begun to decline. in terms of global epidemic and vaccination, last week, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the vaccination range of Pfizer and biontech vaccine booster to further expand to people aged 12 to 15, and shorten the vaccination duration from 6 months to 5 months. At present, the proportion of vaccination in European and American countries is rising rapidly. Among them, the proportion of fully vaccinated population in Germany, France, Britain and the United States is 70.6%, 73.3%, 69.5% and 61.5% respectively. Countries with a high number of new cases last week were the United States, Britain, France, Italy and so on.
European stock markets rose collectively, with FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX and Italian indexes rising 1.3%, 0.1%, 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. inflation in the eurozone cooled down in June, and CPI increased by 1.9% year-on-year, lower than 2% in May. The Nikkei 225 index fell 1.5%, and the Bank of Japan announced that it would cut its bond purchase target for the next quarter and would start issuing a quarterly bond purchase plan, which could convey more “certainty” to the market than the previous monthly bond purchase plan.
Last week, commodities were mixed, crude oil and industrial metals rose, while precious metals and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) fell. The interest rate on the US 10-year Treasury note rose 15bp to 1.63%.
In terms of crude oil, oil distribution and WTI crude oil rose by 0.9% and 0.9% respectively last week. At present, oil distribution and WTI crude oil rose to $79 and $76 / barrel respectively. The OPEC + alliance composed of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies will hold the first ministerial meeting of the year in the form of video on Tuesday (January 4) to jointly finalize the latest production policy. Precious metals fell last week, gold and silver fell 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. industrial metals rose more and fell less, metal aluminum fell 0.8%, and metal copper, metal nickel, metal lead and metal zinc rose 2.0%, 3.3%, 0.5% and 0.5% respectively. The world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) released the metal balance report from January to October 2021. The report shows that there is a shortage of raw aluminum, copper, lead, zinc and nickel from January to October 2021. Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices fell, rice rose 0.9%, and soybeans, ice11 sugar and wheat fell 1.1%, 2.1% and 5.7% respectively. The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds rose 15bp to 1.63%. The US dollar index rose 0.2% to 96, and the RMB depreciated 0.01% against the US dollar. At present, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar is 6.37.
2. Global stock market industry performance
last week, the global stock market rose more or fell less, the materials and industrial sectors performed relatively well, and the energy and daily consumption sectors performed relatively poorly.
Specifically, U.S. stocks, optional consumption and energy led the rise, while the performance of telecom services and health care was relatively poor. In terms of European stocks, utility sector led the rise, with good performance in daily consumption, finance and industry, and slight decline in health care and information technology. In the UK stock market, information technology performed well, while energy and utilities fell. In Japan’s stock market, materials and telecommunications services led gains, while energy fell slightly. In Hong Kong stocks, {23456} industry led the rise, materials and utilities performed well, and real estate and telecommunications services fell. In terms of A-Shares , materials and information technology led the rise, medical care and industry performed better, while energy and daily consumption performed worse.
3. A brief analysis of global strong stocks and changing stocks
Among the companies with a market value of more than US $20 billion that rose sharply in the past week, there are more information technology and optional consumption. Among the companies with a market value of more than US $20 billion that led the decline in the past week, there are more software companies in information technology.
A brief analysis of change shares
[Herbert] due to the current shortage of shipping capacity, shipping prices rise again.
[western data] due to the continuous covid-19 epidemic, Samsung officially decided to temporarily adjust the operation of its factory in Xi’an on December 29. The limited capacity of Samsung NAND flash memory will have a positive impact on Western data and micron technology.
03
important information express
1. Industrial policy and news
(1) virtual human has become a creative performance form of cross year activities on various platforms in 2022 (☆☆☆)
In the new year’s Eve activities in 2022, many platforms have adopted the form of virtual human for creative performance. Jiangsu Satellite TV launched virtual people such as Deng Lijun and Luo Tianyi to perform on the same stage with real idols. Oriental satellite TV launched Huang Minghao on the same stage with his digital twin image. Bili Bili launched the virtual idol women’s group “four Jubilee balls”. Phoenix legend holds a new year concert to restore the virtual image of a real person. The virtual host “Xiaoyang”, who appeared in “Hello! Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) ” on Hunan Satellite TV on January 1, may become the first permanent and personalized virtual host in China. In addition, the Seoul municipal government held a virtual cross Year bell ringing ceremony. This year, a new meta universe platform is added. Korean people can ring the bell and take photos through virtual identity.
(2) Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal, Tesla, etc. announced the delivery of new cars in December 2021, and the monthly sales of many new forces exceeded 10000 (☆☆☆)
Weilai recently announced the delivery volume in December 2021 and the whole year. In December 2021, Weilai delivered 10489 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 49.7%; In 2021, Weilai delivered 91429 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 109.1%, doubling for two consecutive years. On New Year’s day, Xiaopeng automobile also announced the delivery results in December 2021 and the whole year. In December 2021, 16000 sets were delivered, with a year-on-year increase of 181%. In 2021, the total annual delivery volume of Xiaopeng automobile reached 98155 units, 3.6 times that of 2020. In December 2021, ideal cars delivered 14087 ideal one, an increase of 130.0% over December 2020. From January to December 2021, a total of 90491 units were delivered, with a year-on-year increase of 177.4%. Tesla produced about 930400 vehicles in 2021, and delivered nearly 936200 vehicles in the whole year; The output of model s and model x is 24390 and the delivery volume is 24964; The output of model 3 and model y is 906032 and the delivery volume is 911208. In December, Nezha delivered 10127 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 236%, with monthly sales exceeding 10000 in a row. In 2021, 69674 sets were delivered, with a year-on-year increase of 362%. In addition, Weima, which is considered to be stable in the second echelon, delivered 5062 intelligent pure electric vehicles in December and 44157 in 2021, close to the total cumulative delivery in the past three years.
(3) oculus downloads topped the list of free apps in the United States in Apple App Store (☆☆☆)
After the continuous promotion stimulation of Thanksgiving, Black Friday, super Monday and Christmas, meta’s Quest series products are once again popular in the consumer market. According to the ranking of free apps in the United States of Apple App store, oculus VR app of meta, the parent company of Facebook, broke a milestone on Christmas day and became the most popular app in Apple’s American app store, beating long-term leading apps such as tiktok, youtube, snapchat and instagram. Oculus app is the mobile application of oculus VR head display under meta. Users need to activate VR head display through this app, and can also manage games, videos and other applications in VR head display. As an application that people download to manage oculus VR helmet, its summit shows that Quest series VR head display has become one of the most gifts given by people during Christmas. As far as meta is concerned, this is the first time its oculus app has topped the app store at Christmas. Meta, the parent company of Facebook, which is constantly betting on AR / VR metauniverse, is leading the field. It is worth mentioning that Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of meta, said earlier that metauniverse will replace the mobile Internet as the next generation computing platform, and the company will invest at least $10 billion to build the virtual field.
(4) Japanese car companies such as Toyota and Mazda will equip major models with automatic driving technology (☆☆) in 2022
On December 28, according to Nikkei news, Japanese car companies, including Toyota and Mazda, will equip their main models with automatic driving technology by about 2022. As Japanese carmakers gradually lag behind their competitors in the United States and China in terms of automatic driving, they believe it is necessary to speed up the deployment of automatic driving technology in their products. These car companies will install level 2 and above functions, such as automatic driving, which is still mainly operated by drivers on the highway. The report quoted Yano Research Institute as saying that by 2030, 62% of autopilot cars will have Level 2. TOYOTA will take the lead in carrying out an automatic driving system on Crown, the flagship model of 2023, which will be able to drive off the freeway. The technology will also be gradually applied to other TOYOTA models. At present, only Lexus LS high-end car and fuel cell car Mirai are equipped with this technology. In addition, Toyota is also considering installing automatic driving function on low-cost models such as corolla. From 2022, Mazda will be equipped with level 2 and level 3 autopilot functions on medium and large SUVs. At the same time, Subaru plans to add some features to all its cars sold worldwide, such as off hand driving at a speed of 50 kilometers per hour on the highway.
(5) build the first exclusive driverless model for waymo. Geely wants to take advantage of the vast – M structure to pry into the trillion market (☆☆)
On December 29, Geely Holding Group announced that it had reached a cooperation with waymo, a driverless technology company, and its high-end intelligent electric brand krypton would provide exclusive vehicles for waymo one driverless fleet and put into commercial operation in the United States. It is reported that the model is built based on the architecture of sea-m, an intelligent travel platform of krypton, and is designed and developed by cevt. “The vehicle will be delivered with waymo’s waymo driver driverless solution.” An Conghui, CEO of extremely krypton intelligent technology, revealed that in addition to taking the lead in landing in the United States, waymo one driverless model for use scenarios in the Chinese market will also be launched based on the vast-m architecture in the future. According to Geely’s official introduction, automatic driving is the key field of sustainable experience architecture. As the world’s first intelligent mobile travel architecture specially developed for driverless scenarios, vast-m follows the technology and experience of the architecture and is open to global ecological partners through the integration of hardware layer + system layer + ecological layer. With the support of the vast-m architecture, the cabin design can support two schemes with and without driving control mechanism and a variety of seat layout, so that the vehicle can be flexibly adjusted based on R & D needs. In addition, it supports the use scenario of b-end driverless vehicles and the future use of driverless vehicles in C-end scenarios. The driverless software interface is embedded, which can be connected to the intelligent driving system of L2-L4 level and above, and realize the automatic switch by wire to adapt to different driverless solutions.
(6) semiconductor wafer foundry leader liandian enters the third generation semiconductor (☆☆)
On December 29, liandian entered the third generation semiconductor field by investing in Lianying. Liandian plans to start with 6-inch gallium nitride (GAN) products, and then expand the layout of silicon carbide (SIC) and develop to 8-inch wafers. The company disclosed that the third generation semiconductor process will be converted from CMOS and will wait for an opportunity to expand production in the future. Liandian said that since few manufacturers in the industry can provide Gan overall solutions, it is building a technical platform, which is jointly developed by liandian and Lianying, focusing on applications such as electronics, RF and microwave. It is expected to be introduced to IC design customers next year. In addition, liandian has joined hands with Belgium Microelectronics Research Center (IMEC) to carry out the research and development of third-generation semiconductors. The latter is a world-famous independent public R & D platform and an indicator R & D institution in the semiconductor industry. Intel, Samsung, TSMC and Qualcomm all cooperate with it. It is worth mentioning that Lianying is expected to become the main production position of liandian’s third-generation semiconductor. Previously, Lianying’s main business was 6-inch wafers, but it was in a state of loss for a long time, and the capacity utilization rate was also at a low level. However, since the second half of last year, the performance has improved, the production capacity has been continuously full, and the production capacity next year is expected to double that of this year.
(7) the global installed capacity of power batteries Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) from January to November accounted for 31.8% (☆)
On December 29, according to the data released by SNE research, a South Korean market research institution, from January to November this year, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) still maintained the leading position in the electric vehicle battery market. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ranked first with a market share of 31.8%, 10 percentage points higher than LG energy solutions, which ranked second. Byd Company Limited(002594) ranked fourth with a market share of 9%. SNE research pointed out that from January to November this year, Chinese enterprises led the growth of electric vehicle battery market (including pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles and hybrid vehicles). Compared with the same period last year, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Byd Company Limited(002594) increased by 180% and 192% respectively. According to the survey, the top 10 power battery manufacturers in the world are: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG, Panasonic, Byd Company Limited(002594) , ski, Samsung SDI, AVIC (AVIC lithium battery), Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , and honeycomb energy.
(8) before November 2021, the global sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles increased by 95%, and Hyundai in South Korea remained the market leader (☆)
On December 30, SNE research, a global new energy market research organization, released the latest data. From January to November 2021, the number of registered hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) in the world increased by 95.1% to 16200. Among them, Hyundai accounted for 55% of the FCV market, and sold 8900 FCVs during this period, firmly taking the lead in the market. According to statistics, the FCV sales volume of Hyundai Motor of Korea increased by 46.1% to 8900 vehicles annually from January to November 2021, mainly benefiting from the hot sales of “NEXO” in 2021. The second place in the market share is Toyota, the leader of Japan’s automobile industry. Driven by the second generation “Mirai”, the sales volume soared by 413.8% year-on-year, reaching 5700 vehicles, accounting for 35% of the market share. Japan’s Honda, which ranks third, has a market share of only 1.6%. As early as July 2021, Honda Motor, a Japanese carmaker, announced that it would terminate the production of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCV) fueled by hydrogen from August 2021.
2. Global emerging industry trends and tracking of key companies
(Research on investment promotion strategy)
