At the beginning of the year, it was time for major financial institutions to release their market trend forecasts for the new year.
On January 3 local time, Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Group, a global private equity giant, and Joe zidle, investment director of private wealth management department, released their "top ten accidents" in 2022. They believe that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates four times next year and will push the interest rate of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds to 2.75%. U.S. stocks will stagnate and gold and oil prices will soar.
Wayne is one of the analysts with the most followers on Wall Street. He forecasts the macroeconomic and financial market trends in the coming year at the beginning of each year. He thinks that the probability of occurrence is only 1 / 3 for ordinary investors, but in his opinion, the most likely event (the probability of occurrence is more than 50%) is called the "top ten accidents", which is also the 37th year he made this prediction.
the impact of the epidemic will gradually subside
Wayne and zidle believe that although the mutant strain Omicron is currently raging around the world, it is expected that public activities, meetings and other gathering activities are expected to return to the pre epidemic level by the end of this year. Although the covid-19 epidemic will continue to exist this year and continue to cause problems to some developing and developed countries, in the United States, it is expected that most people's lives will return to normal. Most people may return to their offices from 3 to 4 days a week in the United States, and theater, concert, gymnasium and other activities are expected to resume.
Inflation is still an important factor affecting the macro economy. They believe that although some commodity prices fall, employment costs and rents continue to rise, and the consumer price index and inflation will rise by 4.5%. Although transport and energy prices have fallen, sustained inflation has become the mainstream opinion.
In the environment of declining corporate profits and raising interest rates, it is expected that the S & P 500 index will make great progress, and value stocks will outperform growth stocks. Wayne also expects that the stock market may fluctuate and adjust greatly, but believes that the adjustment range should not exceed 20%. At the beginning of last year, Wayne predicted that the S & P 500 index would close near 4500 in late 2021, and in December, the S & P 500 index really broke through 4500.
In the bond market, it will begin to respond to rising inflation and the Federal Reserve's shrinking asset purchase plan. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates four times this year, and the interest rate of us 10-year Treasury bonds will rise to 2.75%.
oil prices and gold prices soared
At the end of last year, gold prices had risen significantly as global investors' concerns about inflation intensified. Wayne expects the price of gold to soar 20% and reach a new high this year. Although the US economy is expected to maintain strong growth, investors will prefer gold, which is safe and can hedge against inflation.
Wayne also pointed out that even if the total amount of virtual money market held by investors continues to increase, gold is expected to regain its position as a "safe haven asset".
As for oil prices, they expect that although major oil producing countries in the world believe that high oil prices are promoting the implementation of alternative energy policies and making us shale gas producers profitable again, these countries will not increase production to meet market demand. Therefore, the price of crude oil futures (WTI) in New York will continue to rise, and the oil price may be as high as US $100 / barrel.
At the beginning of last year, Wayne successfully predicted the rise of oil prices during the year. When the forecast of the previous year was released, the WTI oil price was at the level of less than $50 / barrel. At that time, Wayne predicted that the oil price would rise to $65 / barrel in 2021. As a result, the oil price rose to more than $80 / barrel in the fourth quarter.
This view is similar to Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase. Goldman Sachs expects that the impact of Omicron virus strain on the economy is limited. It is expected that the price of Brent crude oil will remain at about $85 / barrel in 2022 and 2023, and may even exceed $100 / barrel. JPMorgan also believes that the annual increase of international oil prices in 2022 will continue to reach double digits due to the comprehensive impact of global economic recovery, the decline of crude oil inventories and the slowdown of capacity recovery.
China's asset management industry will usher in new development
For China, Wayne expects the government to take measures against the recent chaos in the real estate market in 2022, including cracking down on real estate speculation, which will increase the scale of funds available for investment owned by mainland residents, promote the development of asset management industry, and bring a lot of opportunities for overseas and foreign-funded property management companies.
In terms of environment, sustainable development and Governance (ESG) development, Wayne believes that ESG will not only stay at the level of enterprise policy in 2022. For example, relevant agencies of the U.S. government will establish and implement new ESG regulations and require listed companies to disclose more detailed information. The Federal Reserve has taken the lead in stress testing the ability of financial institutions to deal with the threat of climate change in this regard.
on the other hand. Nuclear power will once again come into public view. Now, human society has sufficient safety measures that can help the public reduce their fear of nuclear energy, making it possible for nuclear energy to be widely accepted. Hybrid energy will also become a new way of energy supply.
Wayne also believes that in the process of implementing the green energy policy, the lack of sufficient lithium battery supply in the United States may limit the development plan of the electric vehicle industry. At present, China dominates the global lithium market and cobalt and nickel resources, most of which may be reserved to meet the needs of China's local market.
(China Fund News)
