The hottest new energy track will usher in heavy catalysis.
In 2021, the global electric vehicle market really sold out. The first is Tesla. According to the data disclosed during the new year's Day holiday, the annual delivery volume in 2021 reached 936200 vehicles, approaching the 1 million mark, an increase of 436000 vehicles compared with 2020, an increase of 87.2%, exceeding market expectations. Affected by this, Tesla's US stocks soared by more than 7% before trading.
Chinese car manufacturers were not absent from the feast of new energy vehicles. On January 3, Byd Company Limited(002594) announced that the annual sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2021 reached 593700, a year-on-year increase of 231.6%; In the camp of new forces in car making, the total delivery volume of Xiaopeng cars in the whole year reached 98155, a year-on-year increase of more than 263%; The annual delivery of Weilai automobile reached 91429, ranking second among the new forces; The total sales volume of ideal cars in 2021 reached 90491, a year-on-year increase of 177.4%; The first Huawei Hongmeng electric vehicle just released: the M5 in the world has also sold out. According to media reports, within 96 hours after the release, the reservation of M5 has exceeded 6500.
In 2022, under the combined impact of the decline of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) subsidies, soaring upstream costs and lack of core, new energy vehicles may set off a round of price rise. At present, Tesla, Volkswagen, GAC AIAN, Nezha and other auto enterprises have successively announced price increases in 2022.
new energy vehicles sold out
During the new year's Day holiday, Tesla disclosed the production and delivery volume in the fourth quarter of 2021, far exceeding market expectations. According to the data, Tesla produced 3058400 vehicles and delivered 308600 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2021. In 2021, the delivery volume reached 936200 vehicles, approaching the 1 million mark, an increase of 436000 vehicles or 87.2% compared with 2020.
From the month on month data, the output of the fourth degree increased by more than 28.5% month on month; The delivery volume in the fourth quarter was 28% higher than the record set in the third quarter, and the year-on-year growth rate was as high as 71%, which is Tesla's record delivery volume for the sixth consecutive quarter.
According to FactSet, Tesla's delivery in the fourth quarter of 2021 was about 40000 vehicles higher than Wall Street analysts expected.
Under the background of extreme "lack of core" in 2021, Tesla's annual report card is more gold. Earlier, Tesla founder musk said that 2021 was a super crazy year of supply chain shortage.
Looking forward to 2022, musk is optimistic that supply chain problems such as chips will become a thing of the past. Therefore, Wall Street institutions also boldly predict that Tesla's delivery volume in 2022 will be about 1.4 million vehicles, an increase of 50% compared with 2021.
In addition, according to insideevs, an electric vehicle website, Tesla will have two factories put into production this year, which will increase the production capacity of 300000 vehicles. Combined with the current factories in California and Shanghai, Tesla will deliver more than 1.5 million vehicles in 2022, with an increase of more than 60%.
Chinese car manufacturers were not absent from the feast of new energy vehicles. On January 3, Byd Company Limited(002594) announced that the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in December 2021 was 92823, a year-on-year increase of 236%; In 2021, the cumulative sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 593745, with a year-on-year increase of 231.6%.
On the first day of 2022, Weilai, Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, Nezha automobile, gac-e'an, Geely krypton and other domestic automobile enterprises also successively released their transcripts for the whole year of 2021.
In the camp of new forces of car making, Xiaopeng automobile won the championship with the cumulative delivery of 98155 vehicles throughout the year, followed by Weilai and ideal vehicles. The annual delivery of the three vehicles exceeded 90000, with a total delivery of nearly 300000 vehicles.
Among them, the delivery volume of Xiaopeng automobile in December reached 16000, breaking 10000 for four consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of 181%. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the delivery volume reached 41751 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 222%; In 2021, the total delivery volume reached 98155 vehicles, an increase of more than 263% compared with 2020.
In terms of Weilai automobile, the official data show that its delivery volume in December reached 10489, slightly lower than that in November. The cumulative delivery in 2021 reached 91429, one of the ideal cars, ranking second among the new forces.
On the same day, ideal automobile also disclosed the annual sales data of 2021. In the fourth quarter of 2021, ideal one delivered 35221 vehicles, with a month on month increase of 40.2% and a year-on-year increase of 143.5%; In 2021, the total sales volume reached 90491, with a year-on-year increase of 177.4%.
Stimulated by sales data, on the first trading day of 2022, the new energy sector of Hong Kong stocks bucked the trend, with Xiaopeng automobile rising by more than 5.8% and ideal automobile rising by 3.5%.
It is worth mentioning that Nezha has become the largest dark horse in 2021. According to the data, the delivery volume of Nezha reached 10127 in December and 69674 in 2021, with a growth rate of 362%.
The first Huawei Hongmeng electric vehicle just released: the M5 in the world has also sold out. 96 hours after its release on December 23, 2021, the reserved quantity of the M5 has exceeded 6500 units, and the growth rate has exceeded that of the previous generation of seles sF5, indicating that this model is highly sought after by consumers.
is the price rise coming?
In 2022, the first challenge facing the new energy vehicle track is the decline of new energy subsidies.
According to the notice of the four ministries and commissions on improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles issued by the Ministry of industry and information technology, the implementation period of the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles will be extended to the end of 2022, and the subsidy standard will decline by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively from the previous year.
It means that from January 1, 2022, the subsidy standard of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, and the subsidy amount of pure electric vehicles with a endurance of more than 400km will be reduced by 5400 yuan next year.
In the context of the explosion of electric vehicle sales, the impact of the decline of subsidies may be transmitted to terminal sales, and a round of price rise may be set off for new energy vehicles in 2022.
On the last day of 2021, Tesla raised the prices of rear wheel drive versions of domestic models model 3 and model y by 10000 yuan and 21000 yuan respectively, and Tesla China has confirmed that the price increase is related to the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles.
In addition, Volkswagen announced that the price of its models will increase from January 1, 2022, and the two pure electric models id.6 crozz and id.4 crozz will increase by 5400 yuan as a whole; The sales staff of GAC ea'an said that from January 2022, the price of ea'an LX will increase by 4000 yuan, and the starting price will reach 230000 yuan; The car of the Zha Zha and Fei Fan also indicated that the price will be adjusted after January 1st.
In fact, the decline in subsidies is only one of the reasons for the rise in the price of electric vehicles. Perhaps the more direct reason is the increasing pressure on the manufacturing cost of new energy vehicles.
Due to the rising cost, Tesla has raised its price many times since 2021, and the cumulative price increase has exceeded 20%.
The prices of cobalt, lithium and other materials upstream of the power battery industry chain were almost soaring in 2021. According to the data of the business society, on January 2, 2022, China's battery grade lithium carbonate reported 282000 yuan / ton, a record high, an increase of more than 420% over the beginning of 2021, a year-on-year increase of 435%, and even lithium enterprises began to accept an offer of 300000 yuan / ton.
The conduction effect of price increases is increasing step by step for lithium, cathode material plants, power battery plants and new energy vehicle plants.
At present, the major power battery suppliers, except for Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , have almost raised the price of power batteries or plan to raise the price.
In January 2022, LG new energy plans to increase the price of cylindrical batteries by 10%; Samsung SDI raised the price of cylindrical batteries by 8% last November. The contact letter on battery price increase of Byd Company Limited(002594) also shows that Byd Company Limited(002594) has decided to increase the unit price of co8m and other battery products, and the tax included price of the product is not less than 20% based on the current wh unit price. In addition, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) also came out a price adjustment negotiation letter, which will increase the price of power batteries.
In addition, chips in 2021 also put great pressure on the new energy vehicle industry chain, and the increase of some key chips far exceeded the price of lithium. Whether the upstream price rise or supply shortage will eventually lead to the rising cost of automobile manufacturing.
Under the superposition of subsidy decline and upstream cost pressure, some new energy vehicle enterprises may start the price increase strategy in 2022.
is there a lack of core in 2022?
2021 may be the most tearing year for the global automotive industry. On one side, there is strong demand, while on the other side, there is a continuous shortage of key materials such as semiconductors and chips.
The chip market has repeatedly staged chaos such as rush buying chips, hoarding strange things and driving up prices, which once caused the prices of some auto chips to continue to rise, some 3-10 times, some 30-40 times, and they have been out of stock.
As a result, the automobile industry has seen a "three volume simultaneous decline" pattern of simultaneous decline in output, sales and inventory, which has lasted for half a year, which is the first time in the past decade. According to the latest data of Research Institute autoforecast solutions (hereinafter referred to as AFS), as of December 19, due to the shortage of chips, the cumulative production reduction of the global automobile market in 2021 was 10.272 million, which will cause the global automobile industry to lose 210 billion US dollars (about 1333.9 billion yuan) of revenue in 2021.
In order to alleviate the global shortage of automotive chips, the upstream chip foundry began to build more factories and expand production capacity, focusing on the layout of vehicle specification chips.
It takes 18 to 24 months for the new production capacity to enter the supply chain of the whole vehicle plant from the establishment of the plant to the release of production capacity. Therefore, the car core shortage situation may continue in the first half of 2022. It is expected that the core shortage situation will improve in the second half of 2022.
The continuous shortage of chips in the first half of 2022 has also given impetus to major new energy manufacturers to raise prices. According to a report by IDC research, since the end of 2022, the new production capacity of major chip manufacturers has begun to enter mass production. By 2023, the shortage of global automotive chip supply will be alleviated to a certain extent, and there may even be overcapacity in the future.
(brokerage China)
