optimistic about the cross year market window period at the end of the year and the beginning of the year
The cross year market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year is the best window period, and A-Shares may usher in consolidation in the long bull. This does not change the general trend of China’s long-term equity investment era. Short-term twists and turns are the driving force for the long-term rise of savings. As stated in the Tao Te Ching: “Qu is complete, and waste is straight”.
The amplitude of A-share index hit a record low in 2021. The market amplitude is expected to expand in 2022, and the market is considerable at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. Three factors support us to be optimistic about the spring Market: first, the macro policy is loose, moving from broad money to broad credit, and the real estate policy is actively fine tuned; Second, the current roe is still in the recovery cycle, and the rise of roe is expected to continue until the first quarter of 2022; Third, from November of last year to march of the next year, it is the window period of restless market.
For the whole year of 2022, we think it is necessary to reduce expectations. In early 2019, we proposed that with the transformation of industrial structure and the migration of residents’ asset allocation to the stock market, A-Shares may start a bull like US stocks in the 1980s. However, long bull does not mean that there is no fluctuation. The pullback in long bull may occur every 3 to 4 years. The background is that the investment clock is in the stagflation stage. The bull market started in 2019 has experienced three years of rise. Looking forward to 2022, A-Shares may usher in a rest in the long bull. The disturbing factors include inflation restricting interest rates and the cyclical decline of roe.
In terms of configuration, we suggest focusing on three main lines: first, with the economic downward pressure hedged and the real estate debt worries subsided, the big financial industry is expected to usher in repair; Second, the hard technology industry has good fundamentals and strong stock price performance. The new energy vehicle industry chain is expected to maintain a high boom in the next few years, and the market environment needs to digest the valuation stage by stage; Third, at present, the profitability and fund allocation of the consumer industry are at a low level. Looking back, the fundamentals of the consumer sector are expected to pick up and the cost performance will be improved. There are two structural highlights worthy of attention in 2022: first, enterprises in the copper and pig industry chain benefiting from the price rise, and second, the plight of epidemic damaged industries (aviation, airport and Tourism) has reversed. Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) Dai Kang
2022 is expected to move towards the “mirror image” of 2021
Structurally, we predict that 2022 will move towards the “mirror image” of 2021 in five features:
First, large categories of assets may show a combination of slowing commodity upward, increasing downward pressure on the stock market and rising US bond interest rates. The overall performance is expected to be a “mirror image” in 2021.
Second, 2022 entered the “second half” of capacity expansion, but encountered a “downward period” of corporate profits. The “supply and demand gap” in profits in 2022 will transition to potential “oversupply”.
Third, the opening of the “double carbon stable credit” cycle in 2022 will repair the structural credit differentiation in 2021. The dual carbon credit pattern of “one plus one stability” will form a mirror image of structural tight credit in 2021.
Fourth, from the perspective of profit environment and financial conditions in 2022, it will be slightly conducive to the market style. If we further integrate the profit forecast and dynamic valuation of various broad-based indexes and market value ranges, we tend to judge that the market style in 2022 is difficult to form a “one-sided” trend, and the market value style tends to be balanced.
Fifth, the industry performance in 2021 is characterized by “the upstream is better than the middle and downstream”. In 2022, based on the convergence of ppi-cpi scissors, the reversal of supply and demand gap and the “one plus one stability” of the credit cycle, the line of sight of industry allocation will move more to the “middle and lower reaches”.
In terms of industry configuration, we suggest paying attention to white electricity and food processing benefiting from ppi-cpi transmission; Rail transit, green building and green power operators with “double carbon” wide credit line; New energy materials and military industry with “supply and demand gap” or “supply and demand resonance”; And new energy vehicles, photovoltaic modules, semiconductor equipment, etc. benefiting from the prosperity differentiation of emerging tracks. China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) Zhang Xia
A-Shares as a whole may show a trend of “stabilizing before rising after rising”
In 2022, the transfer of residents’ funds to “wealth management with rights” is still in progress, but before the liquidity is significantly loose, the pace of incremental funds entering the market has slowed down compared with the previous two years. On the one hand, the circulation market value of A-Shares has increased significantly, and the turnover rate of A-Shares will remain relatively low. On the other hand, the stock valuation of institutional heavy positions is in a historically high position. The A-share market will show a trend from noisy to dull. There are still local structural investment opportunities, but the range may be difficult to be as magnificent as in the past three years.
In terms of rhythm, the macroeconomic situation in 2022 may show a trend of low before and stable after. Exports are facing downward pressure under the high base. The investment and financing demand needs to be further introduced under the stable growth policy. The enterprise profit growth rate maintained a downward trend in the first half of the year, triggering the counter cyclical policy more actively. The new social finance growth rate is expected to become positive around the third quarter, resulting in an upward profit expectation, At that time, A-Shares will usher in the starting point of a new round of upward cycle. Therefore, A-Shares as a whole may show a trend of “stabilizing before rising after rising”, similar to “√”.
In terms of market style, although there are still many investment opportunities in emerging industries in 2022, small and medium-sized companies in emerging industries with “specialization and innovation” and upward trend also have the opportunity to obtain a higher rate of return. However, on the whole, due to the downward trend of enterprise profit growth, the overall environment is more conducive to large cap stocks with relatively stable performance, and the market style is expected to be dominant. Value and growth style may be more balanced, showing the characteristics of rotation.
In terms of industry allocation, the core layout idea is to repair the undervalued value around the “counter cyclical” policy and “Shun Technology” TMT conforming to the trend of new technology industry. On the one hand, under the triple pressure of economic growth, the steady growth policy is expected to be launched, which can be arranged in the directions of “improving liquidity”, “stabilizing social finance”, “new (energy infrastructure and digital) infrastructure”, “stabilizing real estate” and “promoting consumption”. On the other hand, a new round of information technology revolution represented by aiot is being conceived, and local trends such as automatic driving and industrial Internet are accelerating; On the consumer side, with the influx of technology giants, the industrialization of “meta universe + Ar” is accelerating. Therefore, the field of science and technology can pay attention to the landing of aiot applications (intelligent driving + industrial Internet) and “metauniverse + VR”. Minsheng securities Mou Yiling
2022 is full of opportunities
In 2021, credit conditions tightened, economic growth slowed down, and the downward range of macro leverage ratio has exceeded that in 2018. In such an environment, the whole market does not seem to have fallen, but the valuation since the outbreak has been significantly compressed and returned to the level at the end of 2019. Under the active transformation of energy, the profit contribution of the traditional cycle and the valuation contribution of new energy support the whole market, offsetting the downward pressure of the economic cycle. The long-term steady position structure of institutional investors was broken during this period, and the large market capitalization investors in the whole market lost at a historical level. Unlike some investors who believe that they are standing at the end of the three-year bull market, we believe that they are standing in the market after a year of short-term adjustment: the decline of leverage, the compression of valuation and the reconstruction of investor structure.
2022 is full of opportunities. We focus on the opportunities for the profit value of traditional cycle enterprises to be re recognized by the market (copper, crude oil, coal and aluminum), and pay attention to the value restoration of real estate and banks under the recovery of credit. Power will be the most growing energy, and the structural shortage will bring investment opportunities for power sector and power grid construction. Rural Revitalization under common prosperity will become the most important new growth clue after 2022. The corresponding County consumption will have a new impact on the structural differentiation of gross profit margin of consumer goods since 2016, thus bringing new investment opportunities beyond the consensus. China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) Zhang Qiyao
the market will still have a profit-making effect in 2022 mainly structural opportunities
2022 will still be a market with profit-making effect, focusing on structural opportunities and focusing on bottom-up selection of individual stocks. Focus on seven directions:
1、 Photovoltaic. Under the policy goal of “carbon peak and carbon neutralization”, countries continue to increase their support for the photovoltaic industry. Under the background of high demand and prosperity, the price of photovoltaic industry chain will remain high.
2、 Wind power. The follow-up of the large wind power base project is expected to advance steadily, and the future growth of the industry is more and more certain.
3、 New energy vehicles. Demand outside China continued to grow.
4、 Military industry, military aircraft and aviation industry chain. The strategy focuses on the compensatory development needs of the military industry during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Since the second quarter of 2020, the gross profit margin of the national defense and military industry sector has accelerated and the capital expenditure has fully increased, which means that the orders on hand and available orders in the future are high and the profit sustainability is good. It is suggested to focus on the new military aircraft industry chain, components, aviation materials and engine industry chain.
5、 Semiconductor. The global semiconductor equipment market continues to be booming. It is estimated that the global semiconductor sales will reach US $5.509 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25%. China’s core equipment companies are expected to accelerate their growth, and the localization progress of semiconductor material manufacturers is expected to accelerate in an all-round way.
6、 5g new infrastructure. The innovative businesses such as Internet of things and big data of the three major operators increased significantly. Under the subsequent economic downward pressure, the direction of new infrastructure is more dependent.
7、 Innovative drug industry chain. With the early adjustment, the overall cost performance has been highlighted. At present, with the transformation of macro monetary policy portfolio from “wide currency and tight credit” to “wide currency and stable credit”, the valuation difference between consumption and growth is also expected to converge, and the relative prosperity advantage is obvious. In the long run, the growth rate of China’s innovative drug market will be significantly greater than that of generic drugs, which is expected to bring a significant increase in pharmaceutical R & D expenditure, and the prosperity of innovative drugs and CXO plates will be supported for a long time. China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Chen Guo
extension of Ning combination in 2022
2021 is a year for China’s economy and capital market to forge ahead. In 2022, although the policy and profit expectations will fluctuate, the structural bull situation under the asset shortage has not changed. The two bull logic of a shares: enterprise transformation and upgrading and resident asset allocation transfer are still established. Therefore, we remain hopeful and cautiously optimistic about the capital market.
If the main line of the structure in 2021 revolves around our proposal to “shift from Mao index to Ning portfolio”, in 2022, we believe that the new line of the structure is still promising: first, the core track of Ning portfolio (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, IGBT, etc.) centered on the main line of the times such as carbon neutralization and China intelligent manufacturing will continue to maintain a high boom. Although some industrial chains are worried about differentiation, we can still find deterministic high growth areas that benefit from volume growth and are not affected by the deterioration of price or competition pattern. Moreover, under the background of medium and low-speed growth of A-share earnings, this part of the subdivided areas will still highlight the scarcity. In addition, with the dynamic changes of industrial development, the extension of Ning portfolio is also expected to further expand to military industry, energy storage, consumer electronics, green power and power grid, etc. Second, the performance of Mao index is expected to improve marginally, and the long-term consumption track with reversal of difficulties such as auto parts, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery is expected to usher in recovery under the background of leading price increase, improvement of epidemic situation and change of industrial cycle. Third, a new wave of science and technology is rising, and new industrial iterative tracks such as VR / Ar / MR, smart cars, metauniverse, digital economy, etc. may emerge new opportunities.
In 2022, in terms of style, we believe that small cap in the boom is a direction that can not be ignored. Small and medium-sized investment opportunities that do not have strong linkage with the macro, but benefit from industrial reform are on the rise. At the same time, the policy support for the direction of “specialization and innovation” is also expected to be strengthened. Grasp the main line of the times, Nuggets boom in small cap. Overall, the opportunities in 2022 still outweigh the risks and challenges. Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) contractor Chao
optimistic about the invisible champion of China’s manufacturing industry
2022 may be an unusual year. Under the trend of easing policy ebbing and epidemic prevention changing from confrontation to coexistence, the global economy may return to a new “normal”, and China’s economy will reshape the starting point for the next 20 years.
Under the neutral scenario, we believe that China’s monetary policy will still maintain a relatively independent decision-making position, and the liquidity environment is neutral and loose, with less interference from overseas. We have gradually seen that “new kinetic energy” (similar to new infrastructure) has some ability to hedge the drag of “old kinetic energy” (real estate development investment) in terms of credit increment. The wide currency and weak but non stalling credit will still make the residual liquidity environment in the financial market remain abundant. We are still optimistic about the A-share market in 2022.
In terms of industry configuration, in the long-term dimension, we are still firmly optimistic about the invisible champion of China’s manufacturing industry and the long-term growth opportunities of mass consumer goods under common prosperity. First of all, China has the most complete industrial system and manufacturing chain in the world, with outstanding comprehensive cost and technological advantages. After the reshuffle in the past decade, we found that a considerable number of manufacturing segments have gradually shown the characteristics of clear competition pattern and significant leading advantages. Such opportunities exist widely in the fields of capital goods and raw materials such as chemical industry, metal materials, industrial machinery and consumer manufacturing. In addition, in the medium term, we also note that the demand for overseas capital expenditure is gradually rising. Superimposed on this demand judgment, the invisible champion in made in China will present a high premium.
On the other hand, looking at the capital expenditure of important listed enterprises in the world in the past 40 years, we can clearly see that China’s optional consumption is a typical growth period in the 10 years after the financial crisis, but compared with the world, the growth of mass consumption is poor. In the future, under the background of common prosperity, we will focus on the growth opportunities of mass consumer goods brought by the improvement of marginal consumption propensity of low-income people. Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) Li Lifeng
The market will spread from first-line leading stocks to second and third line high-quality growth stocks
In 2022, A-Shares will play the role of “high-quality development cow”, and selecting high-quality tracks has become the primary task of investors. China’s economy has entered a new normal: the economic development model has changed from “rough” development to “high-quality” development model. Therefore, in terms of operating characteristics, it will be difficult for A-Shares to rise generally in 2022, and the congestion of some segments will become the norm. However, this does not constitute a sufficient reason to be bearish on growth and consumer stocks. A-Shares may also rely on “rapid rotation of plates subdivided into high-quality tracks” to break the deadlock of track congestion. In addition, the daily trading volume of A-Shares in 2022 is expected to continue above the scale of trillion yuan, and the plate rotation is still fast.
In terms of investment strategy, the strategy of winning the “leader” in A-share investment in 2022 is not dominant. It is expected that the market will spread from the first-line leading stocks to the second and third-line high-quality growth stocks. In terms of industry configuration, the probability of 2022 will deduce the “structural” market, and “growth and stability” are important considerations for industry configuration in 2022. It is recommended to pay attention to the main line of consumption and growth.
At the present time, we give the A share industry allocation proposal in 2022, and specifically to six quality track, namely: new energy, intelligent electric vehicle, semiconductor, military industry, high-end / second high-end Baijiu, innovative medicine /CXO and so on.
The plan of the year is spring. Taking history as a mirror, under the influence of many factors such as abundant market liquidity and warm policy level, A-Shares often deduce the structural market of “sending red envelopes” in the first quarter, and A-Shares may also have “spring agitation” in 2022. Ping An Securities Wei Wei
the overall fluctuation of A-share market in 2022 is upward
We believe that the overall market environment in 2022 is a combination of “economic rebalancing + marginal liquidity easing”. In terms of economy, the improvement of consumption margin and China’s export toughness will become important supports for the economy. In terms of liquidity, under the background of “steady growth + easing inflation”, China’s monetary policy has further room to open up, and the first half of 2022 will be a window period. Social finance is expected to stabilize and recover slowly, and structurally, it is expected to increase support for real industries. On the one hand, support the development of carbon neutralization industry, including the green upgrading of old and new industries; On the other hand, it is to promote the capital market to become the hub of scientific and technological innovation, and there is more room for direct financing in the capital market in the future.
For the A-share market in 2022, we believe that the overall fluctuation of the market is upward, and we grasp the three main lines of innovation, green and consumption in terms of structure. On the whole, the environmental equity market of “economic balance repair + inflation risk mitigation + steady growth policy” is relatively mild. It is expected that the overall fluctuation of A-Shares will be upward in 2022, and the plate rotation will be more frequent with the change of industrial boom and valuation. In 2022, we will focus on three main lines of industrial transformation: first, the innovation driven main line. High end manufacturing includes chips, innovative drugs, medical devices, new materials, national defense and military industry, etc. digital economy includes 5g and the construction of data center, cloud computing / artificial intelligence / Internet of things and other digital technologies; Second, the main line of carbon neutralization, the diffusion of investment opportunities in upstream and downstream links of the industrial chain such as new energy vehicles, new energy, energy storage, energy conservation and environmental protection, and pay attention to preventing the risk of periodic overvaluation; Third, the improvement of consumption margin is the main line. The overestimation of food, beverage and beauty care sector is expected to ease, and the profit expectation of outdoor activities is expected to turn positive. However, the scope and pace of consumption improvement may be subject to twists and turns affected by the epidemic. China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) Li qiusuo
the index may usher in phased opportunities in 2022
The global economy and market after the epidemic generally show the characteristics of “first in first out, asynchronous rhythm, structural differentiation and long tail exit”. Although there are still many uncertainties and the market path may still have twists and turns, the profit growth of Chinese enterprises has gradually improved, the overall market valuation is not high, and the market environment is gradually favorable. The focus is to grasp phased and structural opportunities according to the changes of the main contradictions in the market.
We judge that weak demand and gradual easing of price pressure are the logic of asset allocation in 2022. In this context, in 2022, the profit growth of A-share companies may show a trend of “low before high”. Whether the epidemic is gradually coming to an end and its impact on local growth and industry structure will also be a factor of concern.
Structurally, China’s own industrial trend is superimposed with the global science and technology cycle, and trend opportunities continue to be derived. The structural transformation of China’s economy is still continuing, and the trend of industrial upgrading is in the ascendant; Consumption upgrading twists and turns; The trend of digital economy is spiraling; The conversion of new and old energy under the trend of carbon neutralization is becoming more and more obvious. These are still structural trends worthy of attention in 2022.
In terms of rhythm, with the increase of policy steady growth, the index may usher in phased opportunities. In the first quarter, the implementation of policies and affordable housing may be an important starting point. The allocation direction is “stable growth” in the short term and high-end manufacturing and consumption in the medium term. Potential market risks may include debt pressure, growth overshoot, international relations, etc.
(Shanghai Securities News)
