on the occasion of leaving the old and welcoming the new, new wealth invited 50 private placement to participate in the 2022 private placement market survey. The questionnaire response shows that private placement is more optimistic about A-Shares in 2022, and 56.25% of private placement believe that the Shanghai stock index will exceed 3700 points. There are great differences on how to interpret the A-share style, and private placement optimistic about growth stocks accounts for a slight majority. Private placement is most optimistic about the “double carbon” theme and large consumer industry. The tightening of liquidity in the United States and the epidemic situation have become the most worrying risk factors for private equity.
in addition, nearly 20 best private equity managers of the second new wealth further provided a detailed analysis of the 2022 market. Under the steady growth policy, the best private equity investment manager of new wealth is optimistic about the stock market. Some private equity investors also pointed out that there are market consensus or cognitive deviations in “double carbon”, new energy vehicles, epidemic and other markets, and they have differences on the trend of the bond market in 2022.
“Recovery” is the main tone in 2021. Driven by the global liquidity overflow and the improvement of Chinese corporate profits, A-Shares continued the bull market, which lasted for three years and reached a record high. At the same time, the rotation of market style has accelerated significantly, and new energy track stocks have undoubtedly become the most beautiful. Under the epidemic situation, governments of various countries are more involved in the economy. The reform of China’s energy structure guided by the “double carbon” policy and the consensus of common prosperity and rejuvenating the country through science and technology have all added a strong touch to the investment market in 2021.
In 2022, the normalization of the mutated virus further delayed the global unsealing date, the economic recovery continued, and the global liquidity margin tightened. Under the background, China set the policy tone of “stability in the lead and seeking progress in stability”. Driven by the decline of risk-free rate of return and “no speculation in housing”, the relocation of Chinese residents’ savings continues, the prelude to the era of equity investment has been opened, and investors’ attention to the capital market has further increased.
So, can the A-share bull market continue in 2022? How to switch the market style? What investment theme is worth grasping? What risks should we guard against? Under the economic recovery and monetary policy adjustment, how should the bond market invest? With regard to these market concerns, new wealth sent a 2022 private placement market survey to professional institutional investors – private placement, and recovered 50 valid questionnaires and nearly 20 new wealth’s best private placement investment managers.
56.25% think that the Shanghai index will break through 3700 points, and the style of small and medium-sized markets may continue
The responses to the 2022 private placement market survey show that private placement, which is famous for obtaining absolute returns, is generally optimistic about the A-share market in 2022. 22.92% of the private placement believed that the bull market would continue, 72.92% of the private placement judged that A-Shares were a volatile market, and only 4.17% of the private placement considered that it was a bear market (Figure 1). Data source: new wealth consolidation
In the private placement that clearly believes that A-Shares in 2022 will be a bull market, new wealth further asked about the driving factors behind the bull market. Among them, 54.55% of private placement believe that the driving force of A-share is performance, and 45.45% of private placement believe that it is driven by valuation. The two opinion groups are quite similar. It can be seen that there is a fierce debate on the driving force of A-Shares in 2022 (Figure 2). Data source: new wealth consolidation
Based on the basic judgment of the bull and bear market, investors are more concerned about what point range A-Shares can go in. New fortune sets the point range of Shanghai stock index in 2022 to below 3200 points, 3200-3700 points, 3700-4500 points and above 4500 points.
More than half of the private placements believe that the Shanghai stock index will be in the range of 3700-4500 points in 2022, and 2.08% believe that the Shanghai stock index will exceed 4500 points, that is, 56.25% of the private placements believe that the Shanghai stock index will be above 3700 points in 2022, while the Shanghai stock index will be in the range of 3312.72 points to 3731.69 points in 2021, which shows its optimism. It is considered that private placement with Shanghai stock index at 3200-3700 points in 2022 is the second largest group, accounting for 41.67%. Only 2.08% of private placement are pessimistic and choose the option below 3200 points (Figure 3). Data source: new wealth consolidation
In 2021, the market style changed rapidly: in the first quarter, the yield of US bonds rose rapidly in the short term, the liquidity tightened and the expectation increased, and the market style turned to defense; In the second quarter, as US bond yields fell and global liquidity returned to loose expectations, the market style turned to track stocks; In the third quarter, the dual control of energy consumption limited the supply side, and cyclical stocks led the two cities; In the fourth quarter, the downward pressure on the economy increased, the expectation of loose liquidity increased, and the market style returned to track stocks.
What style characteristics will the A-share market present in 2022? Private placement has not formed a relatively consistent judgment on market styles such as value, growth, large market, medium market and small market. 33.33% of private placement considered it a growth style, followed by private placement in favor of value style, accounting for 29.17%. There are many private placements optimistic about the small and medium-sized market, accounting for 33.33% in total. The private placements that choose the large market are the least, accounting for only 4.17% (Figure 4). It can be seen that the judgment of private placement on the style of A-share market in 2022 continues the deduction of stock market in recent years. Data source: new wealth consolidation (Note: in the questionnaire setting, large cap stocks with a market value of more than 50 billion yuan, medium cap stocks with a market value of 10-50 billion yuan, and small cap stocks with a market value of less than 10 billion yuan)
private placement is most optimistic about a shares, Hong Kong stocks or bottom
In addition to the fast rotation of style in 2021, a shares, Hong Kong stocks and US stocks also went out of different markets.
Comparing the performance of the three major indexes in 2021, it can be found that A-Shares rose in the shock, but the market of small and medium-sized stocks was better. In the index, CSI 300 fell by 5.2% and CSI 500 rose by 15.58%; 2021 will be a complicated year for the Hong Kong stock market. Due to the complicated factors such as double reduction of education, Internet antitrust policy, fermentation of tax reduction and decline policy, poor performance of technology companies and so on, Hong Kong stocks have decreased significantly, with the Hang Seng index falling by 15.12% and the Hang Seng technology index falling by 35.01%; US stocks walked out of a bull market under the background of abundant liquidity, and the S & P 500 index rose 27.23% (Figure 5). Data source: new wealth consolidation (time interval: January 1 to December 30, 2021)
How will the three markets perform in 2022?
According to the questionnaire, private placement is more optimistic about the A-share market in 2022, accounting for 66.67%. There are also 33.33% of private placement optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market, which may reflect that the investment value of the Hong Kong stock market has improved under the environment that China has put “steady growth” in a prominent position, the policy risks of Internet technology companies have been cleared, and the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is significantly low. Surprisingly, there is no private placement to select US stocks. We think the reasons are: on the one hand, there are few private placements focusing on US stock investment; On the other hand, the market is also more and more worried about the tightening of US stock liquidity than expected (Figure 6). Data source: new wealth consolidation
China’s economic growth is optimistic, the monetary policy is consistent, and it is expected to be loose
In addition, new wealth also launched discussions with private placement on two important fundamental factors affecting A-Shares – China’s economic growth and monetary policy.
Most private placement companies hold neutral and optimistic views on China’s economic growth in 2022. 56.25% of private placements are neutral towards 2022, 37.5% are optimistic about China’s economy, and only 6.25% are pessimistic (Figure 7). Data source: new wealth consolidation
In terms of monetary policy, private placement has a more consistent view. There is no private placement option to tighten China’s monetary policy in 2022. It is generally believed that the monetary policy will be loose, but there are different views on the rhythm of monetary policy. 54.17% of private placement directly chose China’s loose monetary policy as the main group. 41.67% of private placements chose monetary policy loose first and then tight, and 4.17% of private placements considered it tight first and then loose (Figure 8). Data source: new wealth consolidation
most optimistic about the “double carbon” theme and large consumption industry, and be vigilant against such risks
After judging the market and fundamentals and implementing the specific investment, what investment opportunities will A-Shares have in 2022?
Among the hot investment themes in the markets such as “double carbon”, manufacturing power, specialization and innovation, consumption recovery, common prosperity and data economy, private placement is most optimistic about the investment opportunities of “double carbon”, manufacturing power and specialization and innovation in 2022. The votes of these three themes are 31, 30 and 29 respectively (Figure 9). Data source: new wealth consolidation
Carbon peaking and carbon neutralization are important strategic objectives of China, and the reform of China’s energy system structure has just begun. Whether from the perspective of environment-friendly, energy self-control or economy, low-carbon has great potential, which may be the reason why private placement is more optimistic about the “double carbon” theme. Manufacturing power is the path of high-quality economic development in China in the future. With the support of the policy and the launch of the Beijing stock exchange, the development of “specialized, special and new” small and medium-sized enterprises is encouraged. These investment themes are also worth looking forward to.
In large consumption, TMT, military industry, medicine and biology, cycle, non bank finance, real estate and other industries, private placement in 2022 is more optimistic about large consumption, TMT, military industry and other industries, with 33 votes, 29 votes and 26 votes respectively. Private placement in non bank finance and real estate industries is relatively less optimistic, and real estate only obtains 6 votes (Figure 10). Data source: new wealth consolidation
Investment should focus on risk prevention. With regard to the risk points that the market is worried about, such as the U.S. liquidity tightening exceeding expectations, the epidemic situation, the global inflation exceeding expectations, the real estate downturn exceeding expectations, and the slowdown of China’s economic growth, private placement is most worried about the U.S. liquidity tightening exceeding expectations and the epidemic situation (Figure 11). Data source: new wealth consolidation
On the one hand, since the outbreak, after the epic release of water by the Federal Reserve, US inflation has reached a new high in recent 30 years. Controlling inflation has become the key goal of the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in December 2021 said that interest rates would be increased three times in 2022, and the interest rate would rise to the range of 0.75% to 1%. The market’s concern that the US liquidity tightening is more than expected is not unreasonable.
In addition, in 2021, the world experienced the repeated impact of gamma, Delta and Omicron mutant viruses. The normalization of mutant viruses further delayed the global unsealing date. The epidemic is still an important uncertain factor disturbing the economy and life, and its impact on the stock market should not be underestimated.
the best private placement of new wealth to see the market: under the stable growth policy, the stock market is optimistic, and the market consensus may deviate
In addition, new wealth sent out a questionnaire to the best private investment manager of the second new wealth. 12 stock investment managers and 3 bond investment managers made specific research and judgment on the views and investment logic of the stock market and bond market in 2022.
Through sorting, it can be found that most of the best private equity investment managers of new wealth in stocks are optimistic about the stock market in 2022. Its confidence comes more from the central economic work conference that China is facing the triple pressure of “shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation”, and the government has obvious determination to stabilize growth.
Many investment managers mentioned that they are optimistic about opportunities such as “double carbon”, specializing in special innovation, military industry and wealth management industry. Under the policy of focusing on stability, investment managers such as Qingli investment Su Xuejing, Kaifeng investment Wu Xing, Xingshi investment Jiang Hui, Tongyu investment Tong Xun and Hainan fruit He Fei pay attention to consumption and investment opportunities.
It is worth noting that for some consensus formed in the current market, Shibei Nengxin Hu Jianping pointed out that there are some deviations. Shi Feng assets, Guo Feng, Cui Hongjian, Yongjin investment and Xie Xiaoyong are more worried about the real estate risk in 2022.
the specific views of the best private investment manager of the second new wealth are as follows.
Shanghai Shifeng assets Guo Feng, Cui Hongjian
We have two basic judgments about the market and environment in 2022: first, the A-share market in 2022 is a structural market, with slight inflation, but it will not be very high; Second, monetary and fiscal policies remain loose. The fluctuation brought by real estate in 2022 may be a big risk or an opportunity. There may be a big downward trend in real estate. If it has a great impact on the macro economy, monetary policy will be relaxed more quickly, which will bring great opportunities.
Shi Feng’s asset investment layout includes: first, consumer goods are structural opportunities in 2022, the pressure on pharmaceutical investment is still relatively large, and the proportion of consumption, medicine and medical treatment has been appropriately reduced; Second, under the guidance of the “double carbon” policy in 2021, many energy policies have been issued one after another, which will bring significant changes to major industries in the next few years and increase the allocation of wind power equipment and power grid equipment; Third, we are optimistic about some manufacturing industries with high barriers and can be replaced globally.
Tongyu Investment Co., Ltd.
At present, the market has fully reflected the expectation of economic downturn, and the central economic work conference has fully set the tone for stabilizing the economy. In the future, the economy will gradually recover month on month, superimposed with positive fiscal policy and a combination of prudent and loose monetary policies, so that relevant industries with stable growth under the condition of economic Pro cycle + expanding domestic demand will benefit, The allocation is inclined to policy expectations and the middle and lower reaches of domestic demand consumer industries.
Xingshi investment Jianghui
Looking forward to 2022, under the background of policy focus shifting to steady growth, the economic problems faced in 2021 will be solved in 2022, and China’s economic probability will gradually improve. At present, the monetary policy will remain stable and loose, and the liquidity level will remain reasonably abundant. On the whole, the prosperity of more industries will improve in 2022, and there are not many structural opportunities in the A-share market.
Structurally, Xingshi investment pays more attention to the performance of the consumer sector. In the medium term, as China’s policy focus shifts to economic growth, under China’s dynamic zero epidemic prevention and control policy, the impact of the epidemic will be weakened, the probability of consumption will repeat the logic of supply-demand mismatch, the cost pressure will be relieved under the convergence of ppi-cpi scissors difference, and the trend of profit improvement in the consumer sector is relatively certain. In the long run, under the framework of common prosperity, there is also a large space for long-term development of consumption. From the perspective of valuation, the price to book ratio of the current consumer sector is at a low level and has a certain cost performance.
Shi Bei Nengxin Hu Jianping
Investment in 2022 should be steady and healthy. The most profound feeling of the market in 2021 is the impact of environmental changes on investment. Therefore, for the market outlook in 2022, Shibei takes the environment as the logical starting point.
Shibei believes that three types of environmental changes should be paid attention to in 2022: 1. The relationship between man and the natural environment, the global epidemic and efforts to reduce carbon have indeed led to binding actions. Its impact can be compared with the industrial revolution. People’s lifestyle will change significantly, and the industrial advantages of various countries will also change; 2。 The relationship between people and the environment changes, and common prosperity has become everyone’s demand, which will lead to the redistribution of residents’ wealth and industry adjustment; 3。 In the external environment, after the epidemic, countries are passively involved in many things, and the space for policy adjustment becomes limited, which will turn to China first, resulting in a decline in the degree of foreign friendship. External environmental constraints and China’s own economic development goals determine that high-quality development becomes the optimal solution.
At present, the overall valuation level of the market is not high, but the internal differentiation is serious. Market consensus: “double carbon” is a big track; China US relations are not optimistic, but China’s economic development mainly depends on itself; The epidemic situation will not disappear for the time being; Common prosperity, high-quality development and scientific and technological innovation have become the main investment directions of the market; Capital market will replace real estate as the main way of wealth management.
There are some biases in the market consensus: there is no doubt about the long-term goal of “dual carbon”, but the path and pace of realization may be different from what is generally believed in the market. The exit of traditional energy should be based on the safety and reliability of new energy sources. Based on the basic national conditions of taking coal as the main energy, do a good job in the clean and efficient utilization of coal, and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy; The growth rate of new energy vehicles will exceed 150% in 2021 and will decrease significantly in 2022; The epidemic has forced many overseas governments to participate in many things, with little policy space. The demand for stability in various countries will rise, and the market expectation of the impact of the US dollar interest rate increase is insufficient; The lag effect of the epidemic on income growth is underestimated, which may further affect consumption.
Therefore, we can pay attention to the following investment opportunities: from the two dimensions of industrial space and valuation, Shibei has a large industrial space, but the power new and new energy vehicle industry chain with sufficient valuation will only pay attention to one link; For medicines and semiconductors with great individual differences, we will only pay attention to individual value; Companies that can fully benefit from the general trend of wealth management deserve attention; The pattern of logistics and express industry is indeed getting better, which can be paid attention to; In addition, specialization and innovation also deserve attention.
qinghequan capital Liu Qingshan
A shares have broken the historical law of “no more than three cows” in 2021. This is due to the good economic start of the 14th five year plan, which depends on the effective prevention and control of the epidemic, China’s strong supply capacity, and China’s stable and balanced financial environment and policies. Looking forward to 2022, in the face of three obvious restrictive environments, several key issues need to be clarified.
Dislocation of monetary policy: “China’s monetary policy is relaxed and the US monetary policy is tightened”, will it lead to a bear market in a shares? We believe that under the guidance of the policy of “cross cycle and counter cycle coordination, and the currency is dominated by me”, the external tightening effect is weaker than history, and the impact on A-Shares is limited.
Correction of economic policy: “maintaining stability of short-term economic aggregate and long-term industrial transformation and adjustment”, which will lead to growth and value style? Who is more dominant? We believe that under the general trend of “from real estate infrastructure cycle to double carbon innovation cycle”, new economic development still gives priority, and excess currency is also stronger than credit expansion. Although there is a phased style balance, the annual growth is still the main line.
Change of investment thinking: “macro perspective is relatively positive, and micro stock selection is more difficult”. Will the stock selection logic continue to focus on potential or return to quality? In 2022, under the macro consensus environment of “low growth + low interest rate + high inflation”, we believe that the stock selection logic should return to quality, and high-quality companies with growth & certainty (high ROE) will have obvious excess returns. In terms of industry response, we are optimistic about “new energy and new power system” in new manufacturing, “military industry and automobile intelligence” in hard technology, and “food, beverage and airport” in consumer services.
Yongjin investment Xie Xiaoyong
It is difficult to be optimistic about China’s economic growth in 2022. Many private enterprises reduce or stop developing new properties due to lack of funds. It is expected that the real estate industry chain will face great pressure, consumption is still sluggish, and the unemployment rate will rise. From the perspective of industry layout, “double carbon” is still a good investment direction, and the industry can still maintain high growth in the next few years. Its driving forces include: policy support; The technology is iterative. In addition, the pharmaceutical, consumer and TMT industries also have good opportunities.
Hainan fruit He Fei
From the perspective of national development, compared with the history of the United States, Europe, Japan and South Korea, China after Lewis turning point still has a lot of investment opportunities at this stage. The United States, on the other hand, maintains a leading position in the real innovation frontier due to its advantages in system and global talents. In the future, we believe that the main investment opportunities come from Chinese enterprises and some American enterprises.
Specifically include: the global share expansion of Chinese enterprises in manufacturing and some other fields. With the deepening of “double carbon”, China’s overall advantages in the field of new energy will also be applied by manufacturing enterprises to further expand its advantages in global competition; In the field of Internet and digital economy, in 2021, the Internet and digital economy were strongly regulated by policies, but we still see that some enterprises have a lot of space in terms of demand innovation, overseas market and digital enterprise application; In the field of electric vehicles and new energy, as the industry enters the stage where the whole market is optimistic, how to find areas with good long-term business model and high barriers becomes more important; In the consumer sector, besides high-end Baijiu, due to its excellent business model and long-term investment value, overall, under the background of common prosperity, the opportunities brought by changes in the mass consumer goods and their upstream and downstream sectors or related fields will be most worthy of attention.
Qingli investment Su Xuejing
Common prosperity is an important direction of the market for a long time to come. The central economic work conference pointed out that China is facing triple pressures of “shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation”. In terms of demand, the market has differences on consumption in the short term. Considering the stable growth requirements in 2022, Qingli investment is still firmly on the side of mandatory consumption.
On the investment side, Qingli investment takes carbon neutralization as the main direction, focusing on middle and downstream opportunities such as automotive electronics and new power systems. Among them, the power aspect mainly includes the transformation of power system and the establishment of active distribution network, and explores the investment direction from three aspects: power supply side, power consumption side and power grid side. In addition, the opportunities in the wealth management industry also deserve attention. The gathering speed of residents’ wealth to the equity market will be further accelerated, and excellent asset management companies will come to the fore. State owned enterprises are the property right basis for common prosperity. In the future, the dividends from the reform of state-owned enterprises will improve the market valuation and will also bring investment opportunities.
Fengjing capital Gaobo
We believe that with the successful launch of vaccines and the development of new drugs, the global socio-economic order will eventually be normalized. According to the spirit of the central economic work conference, economic construction will become the focus of policy for a long time to come. The whole society’s power consumption and power generation structure reform, new energy construction, energy trading and other trends guided by the “double carbon” policy are the inevitable direction.
The repeated tightening of China US relations and the orientation of China’s common prosperity policy have medium and long-term certainty, which will have a profound impact on all walks of life. These long-term trends will form phased constraints or promotion with short-term economic growth, resulting in cross cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies. Promoting stability, controlling risks and adjusting structure are still the main tone of China’s macroeconomic policies. The economic work conference reiterated that adhering to economic construction as the center is the party’s basic line requirement, which is of great significance, and should maintain a positive and optimistic attitude towards China’s economy and capital market.
Hanchuan investment and cultivation
Under the background of relatively positive policies and unchanged structural trend of economic transformation, the stock market in 2022 is expected to be more stable than that in 2021. From the perspective of one or two quarters, there may be investment and trading opportunities driven by some industries or total volume. When extended to the one-year dimension, the market will still have significant differentiation. In depth research and accurate investment at the individual stock level will still be the core to ensure long-term returns.
At the same time, the central economic work conference has corrected the extreme understanding of “capital”, “common prosperity”, “energy consumption control” and “risk resolution”, which is of great significance to the capital market. The market is generally worried about the total shrinkage. Although it should not be overly optimistic against the background of the structural decline of real estate investment, it is expected to form a continuous improvement for a period of time with the further strengthening of new kinetic energy support and the overweight of investment led by the government finance.
We believe that we should pay attention to the allocation of benefit sectors under the background of “volume” recovery and stable PPI in the first half of 2022, such as upstream and midstream enterprises, some consumer enterprises and some Internet enterprises related to new and some traditional infrastructure construction. For a long time, we have done a good job in individual stock investment and allocation in the fields of “new energy and new energy +”, new materials, hard core technology, high-end manufacturing and so on.
Kaifeng investment Wu Xing
We believe that the overall stock market in 2022 is optimistic, and there is a great possibility of structural market. Kaifeng is optimistic about two types of investment opportunities: first, the policy is mainly stable, which greatly reduces the probability of systemic risk, and there is the possibility of valuation repair in some industries (such as consumption); Second, the high boom track in 2021, such as new energy, semiconductor and military industry, will still maintain a high boom in 2022 and will spread to small and medium-sized companies in relevant sectors. Therefore, Kaifeng will conduct balanced configuration based on the above directions.
Bopu assets Yuan Hao
Recently, the central bank announced the reduction of the reserve requirement, and the central economic work conference basically determined the general tone of “stable growth and wide credit” in 2022, as well as the “soft landing” attitude towards the whole real estate industry. Therefore, there is no need to be particularly pessimistic about the stock market in 2022.
Specifically, Bopu assets will focus on the change of energy structure brought about by the “double carbon” policy. Each change will bring about the reconstruction of industrial pattern and the redistribution of resources and wealth. The trend of “low carbon” will gradually replace “high carbon” is irreversible and breeds huge investment opportunities; In addition, the “specialization and innovation” in the large manufacturing industry is also worthy of attention, such as the subdivided fields of high-end manufacturing, automobile electrification, automobile intelligence and other industries. Among them, the small leading companies have the opportunity to achieve rapid growth, gradually grow from a market value of 10 billion to a company with a market value of tens of billion or more. With the growth of these companies, they can probably get good returns.
the best private placement of new wealth: differences in the bond market
The specific views of the three best private equity managers of the second bond strategy new wealth a
