Looking back on 2021, the A-share market remained stable. In 2022, securities analysts interviewed by China Securities Journal are optimistic about the “spring market” of A-Shares supported by abundant market liquidity. They believe that while laying out along the direction of high scenery, they can also pay attention to undervalued blue chips.
optimistic about the “spring market”
In 2022, “spring market” has become the focus of the market. Chief analysts and strategy officers of several securities companies said they were optimistic about the “spring market” of A-Shares in 2022 or the market performance in the first quarter.
Qin Peijing, chief strategic analyst of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) analyzed from a policy perspective that market liquidity may continue to be reasonably abundant in the first quarter of 2022.
“Generally speaking, the market environment of ‘low price + leniency policy + reasonable equity valuation’ in China in 2022 is still better than the combination of ‘high inflation + tight policy + high equity valuation’ in European and American developed markets. It is expected that the long-term trend of foreign capital to continue to allocate A-share assets will not change greatly.” Qin Peijing said.
Song Xuetao, chief Macro Analyst, is also optimistic about the role of liquidity in supporting the market in 2022. Song Xuetao said that it is expected that the monetary policy in the first half of 2022 will focus on structural tools. The main goal is to cooperate with the steady growth of finance, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, and use structural tools to guide the flow of financial funds.
Song Xuetao said: “it is expected that the A-share market in 2022 will be a combination of phased and structural, and the first quarter may be the trading window of the whole year.”
Chen Guo, chief strategy officer of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities, believes that the A-share market is expected to pick up in 2022, and the overall performance should be stronger than that in December 2021. The opportunity at the beginning of 2022 should be seized. “However, there should be reasonable expectations for the duration and height of the ‘spring Market’ in 2022.” Chen Guo said.
layout along the boom direction
From the perspective of market style, analysts continue to be optimistic about the performance of the high-profile industry in the first quarter, and the investment is arranged along the boom direction.
In Song Xuetao’s opinion, it is expected that the policy signal in the first quarter of 2022 will be positive, with abundant liquidity, support for high economic growth and balanced style; From mid March 2022, it is expected that the growth rate of social finance will continue to pick up. The main line of the market may be the improvement of fundamentals and the style will turn to large market value stocks.
Dai Kang, chief analyst of Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) strategy, believes that in 2021, the marginal improvement of profit prosperity expectation of Listed Companies in transportation, building materials and computer industries is significant, and the marginal improvement of income prosperity expectation of Listed Companies in building materials, media and computer industries is significant.
Chen Guo said that due to concerns about performance fulfillment or sustainability, the recent shock callback of the hard technology industry has gradually highlighted the configuration cost performance in the long cycle. If the high prosperity of the hard technology industry can be further confirmed after the beginning of 2022, it is expected to end the adjustment and start a new round of market. Focus on military industry, semiconductor materials, photovoltaic and other sectors.
focus on undervalued blue chips
While laying out along the direction of high scenery, analysts remind that attention can be paid to the undervalued blue chips that will be repaired.
“High quality blue chips will get better after the beginning of the year 2022, and may become the main investment line throughout the year.” Qin Peijing said. For the “spring market” layout, Qin Peijing suggested that we should firmly focus on the “three lows” for the layout of blue chip varieties: first, the varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be low, such as the midstream manufacturing field suppressed by cost and supply chain problems in the early stage, and some consumer and pharmaceutical stocks whose valuations return to a reasonable range; Second, the varieties whose valuation is still relatively low, such as building materials enterprise stocks; Third, high boom varieties with relatively low stock prices after adjustment, such as semiconductor equipment, special chip devices and military stocks.
Chen Guo believes that the transformation of undervalued traditional industries will get revaluation opportunities. The undervalued sector is more cost-effective and will be repaired first in the early stage of the current wide credit. We can focus on the transformation of thermal power, new energy operation, consumer electronics, automotive electronics, reform and transformation of state-owned enterprises, etc.
Zhang Junxiao, chief strategist at Guosheng securities, said that the sinking of market value is the characteristic of A-Shares in 2021, and the next half year is the balance period of market style.
On how to layout the “spring market” in 2022, Zhang Junxiao said that he continued to be optimistic about the valuation and repair of value stocks, such as food and beverage, power operation and other sectors.
(China Securities Journal)
