It is reported that the Ministry of energy and mineral resources of Indonesia recently said that from January 1 to January 31 this year, Indonesia banned coal export, including coal carriers that are loading and have not yet been loaded, and all coal will be given priority to Chinese power plants. It is reported that this move is to alleviate the current shortage of coal supply in Indonesia and give priority to ensuring China’s power demand. Indonesian Minister of energy and mineral resources tasrif also said that after the coal demand of the country’s power plants is fully met, the coal export will return to normal, but he did not mention the specific time, but said that the government will reassess the policy after January 5. It is understood that Indonesia is the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal, with an export volume of about 400 million tons in 2020.
Shengang Securities pointed out that the change of Indonesia’s export policy has a short-term impact on the power coal supply side, and the long-term profit of the coal industry and the expectation of transformation are expected to promote the revaluation of the sector; Under the background of high profitability, the blast furnace production resumption of steel mills is expected to be strong, and the demand for coal coke may gradually improve. In the near future, the coal coke price is expected to strengthen under the background of strengthening the security inspection of the origin; In terms of investment strategy, focus on Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) and Yankuang energy, which benefit from the central rise of Changxie coal price, abundant cash flow and high dividend rate, and pay long-term attention to Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) benefiting from the increase of coking coal price and the deepening of national reform.
Minsheng Securities believes that the import ban is expected to be short-term and difficult to last for a long time. According to the data of the Ministry of energy and mineral resources of Indonesia, as of December 10, 2021, the total coal output of Indonesia was 560 million tons, which is expected to reach 609 million tons in 2021, 637-664 million tons in 2022, and 190 million tons in consumption, accounting for about 30% of the total output. Based on its low coal consumption in China, the export ban is expected to be short-term and difficult to last for a long time. In addition, some manufacturers have completed 25% of the tasks, and there is also uncertainty whether these manufacturers will resume exports. In terms of investment, Indonesia’s export ban is conducive to the improvement of China’s supply and demand pattern, thus promoting the stabilization and recovery of China’s coal prices. It is suggested to pay attention to China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) and Yankuang energy.
(Securities Times)
