After the double base appeared in 2019 and 2020, the double base reappeared in 2021, which is the first time that the double base has appeared in three consecutive years, and the fund has obvious profit-making effect. Looking forward to 2022, public funders generally believe that there is little possibility of a comprehensive bull market in the A-share market, which is expected to continue the structural market in 2021 and pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by steady growth.
three doubling bases appear in 2021
In 2021, active equity funds had obvious profit-making effect. Qianhai open source public utilities managed by Cui Chenlong performed best, with a net value growth rate of 119.42%; Qianhai open source new economy a, also managed by Cui Chenlong, has a yield of 109.36%, ranking second. In addition, Baoying advantageous industry a managed by Xiao Xiao and Chen Jinwei doubled, with a yield of 100.52%.
Overall, in 2021, the average return rate of 5683 active partial equity funds in the whole market (A / C combined calculation) was 8.19%. Among them, 3707 funds received positive returns, accounting for more than 65%.
In addition to the above three double bases, among the active equity funds, the annual yield of Dacheng state-owned enterprise reform reached 94.76%; GF multi factor, Dacheng cutting-edge industry, Dacheng Ruijing a, Huaxia industry boom, BOCOM trend priority a, Great Wall Industry rotation a, and the rate of return exceeded 80%.
In addition, the yields of Jinying national emerging, Xincheng emerging industry a, Ping An strategic pioneer, Ping An transformation and innovation a, Hua’an dynamic flexible configuration a and Cinda Aoyin cycle power all exceeded 70%.
risks and opportunities coexist in 2022
Looking forward to 2022, the public funds expressed optimism about China’s economic growth, believing that manufacturing investment and infrastructure investment will continue to provide support for economic growth. Zhu Qing of Huaxia Fund Investment Research Department said that from the perspective of domestic demand, the rapid growth of manufacturing investment reflects the kinetic energy of endogenous economic growth. This indicator will continue to show resilience in 2022 and support China’s economy. From the perspective of external demand, China’s export share and export growth will continue to exceed expectations.
For the trend of A-share market in 2022, public funders generally believe that there is little possibility of a comprehensive bull market in the market, or continue the structural market.
Han Chuang, fund manager of Dacheng Fund, said that 2022 is still a year of risks and opportunities, and the performance of public funds may be further differentiated. It is unlikely that there will be a full bull market in 2022. Some high prosperity tracks with great growth in 2021 may have risks such as overcrowding of transactions, deterioration of competition pattern, slowdown of penetration promotion, etc.
China Southern Fund holds similar views on the market trend in 2022 and believes that A-Shares will fluctuate slightly upward. In 2022, the growth rate of social finance may tend to rebound, supporting a shares. However, under the background that it is difficult to fully relax the real estate policy, the growth rate of social finance will be a moderate recovery, which is difficult to support the sharp rise of the stock market.
Zhai Yuhang, investment research department of Huaxia Fund, said that the market logic may turn to the structural market brought by steady growth in 2022. From the second half of 2020, the unbalanced recovery of the global economy has brought a round of structural market. In different recovery cycles, industries that resonate with repair will show common prosperity characteristics.
“However, this round of recovery of global imbalances may be coming to an end.” Zhai Yuhang said that the downward pressure on China’s economy appeared, showing a state of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations. At the same time, the recovery cycle of foreign economy is later than that of China, but its growth momentum has also slowed down. In this context, the previous recovery logic has gradually weakened, and the main line logic will become the change of boom structure brought about by steady growth.
focus on the main line of steady growth
In the context of the continuation of the structural market, Huaxia Fund said that it would focus on five types of investment opportunities in 2022: first, industrial chain opportunities driven by new energy power investment that takes into account structural adjustment and steady growth; Second, military industry opportunities with relatively certain performance growth; Third, investment opportunities in the field of state-owned enterprises in line with the policy encouragement direction; Fourth, mass consumption opportunities benefiting from the main line of common prosperity; Fifth, manufacturing investment opportunities benefiting from falling commodity prices.
China Merchants Fund said that in 2022, it will focus on industries that benefit from the decline of upstream costs and the recovery of downstream demand, such as white electricity, bulk consumer goods and auto parts. At the same time, we will pay attention to the technology segmentation leaders with long-term “moat” wrongly killed in the past year, including computer, cloud computing and Internet companies in Hong Kong stocks and A-share TMT industries. In addition, in the context of industrial upgrading, the consumer industry has great potential.
For the consumer sector with high attention recently, Wu Yue, director of large consumption research of Harvest Fund, said he was optimistic about the trend of this sector in 2022. He said that in 2022, beta would be from the required consumption rather than the hot consumption of the previous few years, and food and agriculture had more opportunities than Baijiu and household appliances. In 2022, the opportunity of the consumer industry may not focus on the white horse leader, but more on the growth stocks with small and medium market capitalization. “The study found that it is expected that from the second quarter of 2022, many small and medium-sized food companies may have explosive growth in performance, far exceeding the current expectations of the market.” Wu Yue said.
In addition, Wanjia Fund said that at present, Hong Kong stocks are in the “golden pit” at the bottom, and investment opportunities in boom tracks such as Internet technology are attracting capital layout. Liu Hongda, fund manager of Wanjia fund, believes that in the Hong Kong stock market in 2022, there are great opportunities for the technology Internet, consumption, biomedicine and real estate industry chain.
(China Securities Journal)
