According to choice data, the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds in 2021 was 432.169 billion yuan, a new high of annual net inflow. Among them, the net capital inflow of Shanghai Stock connect was 193.727 billion yuan and that of Shenzhen Stock connect was 238.442 billion yuan. In 2021, the amount of increased positions of northbound funds in power equipment, electronics and banking industries ranked first; The number of shares held in 1165 stocks increased, of which the amount of position increase in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) was the largest.
Analysts said that northbound funds have been one of the main sources of funds in the A-share market. On the whole, in 2021, the northbound capital reduced its holdings of consumer stocks and laid out new energy tracks, reflecting its preference in industry allocation. Looking forward to 2022, it has become a market consensus that northbound funds will continue to allocate a shares.
floating loss of RMB 11.4 billion in 2021
Specifically, choice data show that in December 2021, the net inflow of funds from the North was 88.992 billion yuan, a record monthly net inflow; From December 6 to December 12, 2021, the weekly net inflow was 48.834 billion yuan, a record high weekly net inflow; On May 25, 2021, the net inflow was 21.723 billion yuan, a record high in a single day. North facing funds showed net inflow in each month of 2021, of which the net inflow in April, may and December exceeded 50 billion yuan.
From the perspective of northbound capital holdings, choice data show that by the end of 2021, the market value of northbound capital holdings was 2.76 trillion yuan. In 2021, the market value of northbound capital holdings increased by 420.8 billion yuan. Combined with the net inflow of 432.169 billion yuan in 2021, the floating loss was about 11.4 billion yuan.
The number of shares held by northbound capital at the beginning of 2021 was 2262, while by the end of 2021, the number of shares held by northbound capital had increased to 2422. In 2021, 160 stocks newly incorporated into Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect were increased by funds from the north.
Under the background of the general correction of core assets in 2021, great changes have taken place in the top ten heavy positions of northbound funds. By the end of 2021, the top ten heavy positions of northbound capital were Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) . Among them, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) newly entered the top ten heavyweight stocks. In 2021, the increase of northbound capital’s shareholding in these stocks was 318 million shares, 36518300 shares, 184 million shares and 400 million shares respectively.
From the industry position increase of northbound capital in 2021, the data show that based on the estimation of shareholding change and average transaction price of individual shares, northbound capital will increase positions in 25 industries and reduce positions in 6 industries in 2021. Among them, the power equipment industry is the industry with the largest amount of capital increase in the north, reaching 124.651 billion yuan. At the same time, the power equipment industry is also the industry with the first increase in 2021; Food and beverage is the industry with the largest amount of capital reduction in the north, reaching 14.953 billion yuan. Under the circumstance that the northbound capital will significantly increase the position of the power equipment industry in 2021, the power equipment industry will replace the food and beverage industry and become the largest heavy position industry of northbound capital by the end of 2021, and the food and beverage industry will be the second largest heavy position industry of northbound capital.
big increase Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750)
From the perspective of changes in the shareholding of northbound funds, choice data shows that the number of shares held by northbound funds in 1165 stocks increased in 2021. Excluding the new stocks entering Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect in 2021, the number of shares held by northbound funds in 65 stocks increased by more than 100 million, the Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) with the largest number of shares increased by 775 million, and the number of shares held by northbound funds in East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) and Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) increased by 537 million and 529 million respectively.
In 2021, nearly 1000 stocks were reduced by northward funds. According to the data of choice, in 2021, northbound funds reduced their positions in 989 stocks, of which 21 stocks reduced their positions by more than 100 million shares. The Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) with the largest number of shares reduced was reduced by 678 million shares, Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) and Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) were reduced by 466 shares and 403 million shares respectively.
In addition, according to the choice data, 160 stocks newly included in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect were increased by funds from the north in 2021. Among them, China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited(688009) , China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) were increased by 154 million shares, 83.1113 million shares and 66.3831 million shares respectively in 2021.
In terms of the increase and decrease of holdings, the data show that based on the estimation of shareholding changes and the average transaction price of individual shares, the increased holdings of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) by northbound funds in 2021 ranked first, with net purchases of 34.858 billion yuan, 27.732 billion yuan and 22.906 billion yuan respectively. In addition, the increase in Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) also exceeded 22 billion yuan. In 2021, most of the top ten stocks increased by northbound funds, and the largest increase was Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . In 2021, the reduction amount of northbound funds to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) ranked first, with net sales of 28.221 billion yuan, 19.874 billion yuan and 13.919 billion yuan respectively. In 2021, most of the top ten stocks with the amount of capital reduction from the North fell. The biggest decline was Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , which fell by 40% in 2021.
it is a consensus to continue to allocate A-Shares
For the trend of northbound funds in 2022, brokerage institutions generally said that northbound funds will continue to flow into A-Shares on a large scale.
Zhang Qiyao, chief strategic analyst of China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that on the one hand, the opening of the capital market continues to deepen, A-Shares have higher valuation and cost performance, and multiple factors will drive the continuous inflow of northward funds into a shares. On the other hand, in 2022, the Federal Reserve may start an interest rate increase cycle, which will have an impact on global capital flows (especially trading) and the RMB exchange rate. Therefore, it is expected that the inflow of foreign capital in 2022 may slow down compared with the marginal in 2021. It is estimated that the net inflow scale of northward capital in 2022 will be 336 billion yuan.
Qin Peijing, chief strategic analyst of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that at present, the allocation proportion of overseas equity funds in A-Shares is still low. It is expected that northbound funds will still allocate additional A-Shares in 2022, and the net inflow may reach 400 billion yuan.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that the annual net inflow of overseas funds into A-Shares in 2022 may reach 200 billion yuan to 400 billion yuan.
Liu Jinjin, chief China equity strategist of Goldman Sachs, said that it is expected that about US $75 billion will flow into A-Shares in 2022, and abundant market liquidity will give a strong impetus to a shares.
(China Securities Journal)
