The market of A-Shares in 2022 kicked off. After experiencing the continuous shock before New Year's day, securities companies are optimistic about the market in January and recommend investors to actively grasp investment opportunities; The market style is expected to turn to equilibrium and improve the cost performance of the main line of steady growth. For the future layout direction, the reporter of China Securities Journal combed the views of various institutions and found that consumption and infrastructure have become the common optimistic direction of many securities companies. In addition, in view of the fact that the listed companies will successively release the performance forecast of the 2021 annual report, the relevant performance also deserves the attention of investors.
multi factor support "a good start"
Can A-Shares have a "good start" in 2022? What are the positive factors during January?
Xue Jun, a strategic analyst at Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , believes that the A-share market can be expected to rise in January 2022, and there are four factors that deserve attention: first, the M1 growth rate and social finance growth rate have hit the bottom, with obvious signs of recovery, and the macro liquidity environment is relatively warm; Second, the steady growth policy is expected to be further strengthened; Third, the Fed did not raise interest rates; Four, the valuation is the most important industry in 2021. The industry is mainly concentrated in the new energy, Baijiu, automobile and social service of power equipment. Most other industries still have attractive value.
Benefiting from the recovery of risk appetite and the improvement of liquidity at the beginning of the year, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities chief strategy officer Chen Guo also believes that the A-share market is expected to pick up in January, the overall performance should be stronger than that in December last year, and the investment opportunities at the beginning of the year should be grasped. However, Chen Guo also said: "we should have reasonable expectations for the duration and height of the market this spring. If there is a large rise, we should consider cashing it in time."
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) strategy analyst Zhang Yusheng believes that the A-share market is still worth looking forward to. After the overall setting of macro policies, more specific policies may be introduced in the future, and leading economic indicators such as social finance may take the lead in improving. With the emergence of policy effectiveness and the release of liquidity, the logic of restless market is still established. The recent steady growth and prominent performance of the consumer sector is the embodiment of the restless market, and the embodiment at the broad-based index level will be gradually clear in the future.
style is expected to balance
In addition to paying attention to the main stock indexes of the market, investors also focus on how the market style will change in January under the structural market.
Lin rongxiong, chief strategist of Anxin securities, believes that the steady growth trend will be clear for quite some time in the future. It is predicted that the GDP growth rate this year will pick up compared with the second half of last year, and the "economic bottom" may occur in the second quarter of this year, which determines that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has a high probability of swing back in the medium term, and the market style will further tend to be balanced. In terms of industrial track, the medium-term trend of high boom and high valuation track is good, but the short-term volatility will increase significantly. For investors, it is recommended to look for elastic sectors among undervalued sectors.
Looking forward to the change of market style in 2022, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) chief strategy analyst Xun Yugen believes that under the condition of relatively superior performance, the performance of CSI 300 is expected to be slightly better than that of CSI 500 in 2022. On the profit side, it is expected that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company of CSI 300 will increase by 7% year-on-year, while that of CSI 500 will be 2%. For the hard technology sector, the profit growth rate may decline, and the sector will also experience the stage of valuation digestion.
Ping An Securities Research Institute believes that the market is still dominated by game shocks in the short term, and the relative cost performance of the main line of steady growth has increased. At present, A-Shares are in the performance vacuum period, the plate height switching is obvious, and the market pays more attention to the effect of steady growth policy. However, the overall capital is in the wait-and-see stage and still needs to wait for new performance growth points and policy force points in 2022.
It is worth noting that in January, A-share listed companies will successively start the disclosure of the performance forecast of the 2021 annual report. In this regard, Zhang Xia, the chief strategic analyst of China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , said that the areas exceeding expectations are often the key areas of the market in January. It is expected that the annual report performance forecast of resource, new energy and TMT industries is good, and investors should consider the key layout in January.
optimistic about consumption and infrastructure industry
For the specific industry configuration direction, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) chief strategic analyst Chen Xianshun believes that it is recommended to look for investment opportunities along the direction of steady growth and look forward to the consumption and infrastructure industry chain. In terms of consumption, it is suggested that Baijiu, pigs, household appliances, furniture and social services, tourism and other directions should be accelerated to the bottom of the expected performance, with support and negative expectations. In the field of infrastructure, it is suggested to grasp the new infrastructure direction such as power operation, and pay attention to the development of traditional infrastructure under steady growth.
Zhang Qiyao, chief strategic analyst of China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that in the short term, we should pay attention to the state-owned real estate enterprises, new and old infrastructure and securities companies, and bargain hunting layout the scientific and technological growth direction represented by "small high tech". It is long suggested to focus on five major directions related to scientific and technological innovation, including new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.) Biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.) and military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
Li Zhuo Rui, asset allocation analyst of China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities, believes that the overall macro environment in January 2022 is conducive to equity assets, and the restless market in spring can be expected. In terms of industry configuration, we are optimistic about two main lines, namely, the real estate and consumer industries that benefit from the improvement of economic margin, and the long-term investment main lines related to high-end manufacturing and specialization and innovation. Li zhuorei also said that investors can pay attention to the disclosure of the annual report performance forecast.
(China Securities Journal)
