In 2021, the A-share market ended last Friday. Finally, the Shanghai stock index rose 4.8% for the whole year, and the annual line of three consecutive positive days ended perfectly. The growth enterprise market index rose 12.02% in the whole year, leading the major indexes, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 2.67%, and the Shanghai 50 index fell 10.06% in the whole year.
Last Friday, the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1060.2 billion, 42.4 billion compared with the previous trading day. On the disk, traditional Chinese medicine, lithium extraction from salt lakes, aquaculture, pharmaceutical e-commerce and other sectors led the increase, while China shipping, insurance, coal, logistics, tobacco and other sectors led the decline. As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 0.57%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.41% and the gem index rose 0.00%. The net inflow of funds from the North throughout the day was 4.573 billion yuan, including 2.03 billion yuan from the Shanghai Stock connect and 2.543 billion yuan from the Shenzhen Stock connect. Northbound capital increased its positions in A-Shares by more than 430 billion yuan last year, a record high.
Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with the Dow index up 0.68%, the S & P 500 index up 0.64% and the NASDAQ up 1.2%, of which the Dow index and the S & P 500 index hit a closing high. The new energy vehicle sector rose sharply, Tesla rose more than 13%, and velai rose more than 5%. Apple, NVIDIA and Amazon rose more than 2%, and Apple’s intraday market value once exceeded $3 trillion. Popular Chinese concept stocks rose or fell, Didi rose nearly 6%, and Alibaba rose more than 1%; BiliBili fell more than 4%, pinduoduo fell more than 3%, and New Oriental, tal and JD fell more than 2%.
At today’s morning meeting of securities companies, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that it is expected that the opportunities of A-Shares may outweigh the risks in 2022, and the median annual income of equity public funds may be significantly higher than last year; China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) believes that A-Shares are still available for a period of time. At present, they are mainly optimistic about three directions; Huafu Securities pointed out that the restless market of A-Shares in January can still be expected.
CICC: it is expected that the opportunities of A-Shares may outweigh the risks in 2022, and the median annual income of equity mutual funds may be significantly higher than that of last year
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) pointed out that although the profit growth of A-Shares in 2022 may be dragged down by the upstream industry and may not be excellent compared with 2021 as a whole, compared with overseas, China is in a relatively favorable position in the cycle of growth and policies, “overseas policies withdraw and growth decelerate, China’s policies relax and growth gradually bottoms out and picks up”, and the turning point of the epidemic is “dawn”; In terms of liquidity and valuation, China’s policy is gradually loosening, the current overall valuation is not high, and liquidity is supported; Structurally, China’s industrial upgrading trend is in the ascendant (including industrial autonomy, specialization and innovation, carbon neutralization, etc.), consumption upgrading is moving forward with twists and turns, residents’ assets are more allocated, and the momentum of financial assets is booming, bringing more structural opportunities. We expect that the opportunities of A-Shares may outweigh the risks in 2022, and the median annual return of equity mutual funds may be significantly higher than that in 2021 (the median return of equity funds and partial equity hybrid funds in 2021 is 5.1%).
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) : A-Shares are still in progress and can grasp three lines
The recent A-share adjustment, the differentiation of long-term and short-term interest rates and the narrowing of term interest rate spread more reflect the expectation of economic recession and concerns about the effect of credit easing policy. In this context, looking forward to the market in January this year, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) believes that the A-share market is expected to pick up, the overall performance should be stronger than that in December last year, and the opportunity at the beginning of the year should be grasped. The main reason for the market recovery in January is that the risk appetite and liquidity at the beginning of the year will be improved. At present, we are mainly optimistic about three directions.
First, we are optimistic about the opportunity of transformation and revaluation of traditional industries with undervalued value: the undervalued sector has higher cost performance and is first repaired in the early stage of the current wide credit. At present, China’s external environment also requires a breakthrough from the transformation. Focus on: thermal power transformation, new energy operation, consumer electronics transformation, automotive electronics, computer media transformation, metauniverse, state-owned enterprise reform and transformation, etc.
Second, the opportunity to complete the adjustment of hard science and technology. Out of concern about performance fulfillment or sustainability, the hard technology industry has experienced a shock correction recently. In the long term, the configuration cost performance has gradually become prominent. If its high prosperity can be further confirmed after the beginning of the year, it is expected to end the adjustment and start a new round of market. Focus on: military industry, semiconductor materials, IGBT, photovoltaic, etc.
Third, focus on the direction of financial development. The national financial work video conference requires ten key tasks to be done well in 2022. It is proposed to moderately advance infrastructure investment. We believe that the key direction of fiscal policy at the beginning of next year is to focus on infrastructure (especially new infrastructure), green and low-carbon, agriculture (food security and seed industry, etc.).
Huafu Securities: the restless market of A-Shares in January can still be expected
Huafu Securities pointed out that although the A-share environment in January 2022 is relatively complex, considering the expectation of loose policy and the restless practice in spring, the market structural opportunities are still worth looking forward to. In general, we can adopt a relatively positive allocation strategy, focus on adding growth stocks such as downstream consumer sectors and TMT with high growth expectations, continue to reduce the allocation of cyclical stocks, and pay attention to the rotation of plate style. After the shock consolidation near 3600, the Shanghai composite index is currently in the process of the fifth wave. If the low point 3312 of the above composite index on July 28, 2021 is the starting point, it will enter the (III) wave upward stage from the low point 3448 on November 10 and enter the (V) wave operation at the end of December. However, 3700 is the position of the three high points in February, September and December 2021. It is inevitable that there will be a sharp shock near this position. If it can be broken through effectively, it is expected to hit the next target line of 3900.
(Financial Associated Press)
