Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : Ten prospects of steady growth policy in 2022
The central economic work conference requires that in 2022, stability should take the lead, progress should be made while stability is stable, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced. However, the capital market is still worried about the countercyclical adjustment of macro policies, the disposal of real estate risks and the progress of consumption recovery. At the beginning of the new year, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) made ten prospects for the steady growth policy.
Outlook 1: the interest rate will be cut at least once in the first half of 2022, and the MLF and LPR interest rates will be reduced at the same time.
Outlook 2: in the first half of 2022, the growth rate of social finance will stabilize and recover, and the peak in the middle of the year is expected to reach 11%.
Outlook 3: under the background that about 1.4 trillion yuan of financial funds will be carried forward to 2022, financial expenditure will be advanced and strengthened.
Outlook 4: the infrastructure construction is moderately advanced, and the project implementation is paid close attention. The annual growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to be 6.5%.
Prospect 5: the real estate policy will "implement policies according to the city" to better meet the reasonable demand for house purchase. The inflection point of real estate development investment growth in 2022 may appear in the middle of the year, realizing positive growth throughout the year, and the growth rate is expected to be 2.8%.
Outlook 6: continue to tap the potential of bulk consumption. It is expected that the recovery momentum of consumption will continue, and liquor and tourism, automobiles and household appliances are the highlights of improvement. It is expected that the annual social zero growth rate will be 5.4% and the CPI will be 2.8%.
Outlook 7: foreign trade policy is stable and strong. In 2022, the export growth rate is close to 30%, and it is still expected to achieve a rapid growth of 9%.
Outlook 8: it is expected that in the first half of 2022, another 300 billion yuan of small refinancing line will be added, and the growth rate of the society below the annual limit may be restored to 5% - 6%.
Outlook 9: rebalance structural reform, protect the spirit of innovation and avoid "sports carbon reduction". It is estimated that the annual growth rate of manufacturing investment is about 6.8%, that of high-tech manufacturing investment is more than 17%, and that of PPI is about 0.5%
Outlook 10: GDP is expected to grow by about 5.5% in 2022. For the A-share market, there are many opportunities in the first half of the year. It is suggested to focus on the rise of high-quality blue chips; In the second half of the year, the market was relatively flat. For the bond market, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2.8% - 3.4%.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: the cross-year offensive is progressing smoothly in rhythm and playing steadily in structural adjustment
According to Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities, the market remained high and volatile in the last week of 2021, and the Shanghai stock index rose 0.6% to close at 3639.78. Looking back on the negative effects of blue chip bubble, policy risk, power restriction, production and real estate risk in 2021, the market failed to get out of the narrow fluctuation pattern, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4.8% over the whole year. 1) Looking forward to 2022: under the background of falling profit end and loose restraint at denominator end, the A-share market will still maintain a range shock with a top and a bottom. The overall operation rhythm of the market will be consistent with the general tone of "taking multiple measures to promote the smooth operation of the market and resolutely prevent big ups and downs and urgent ups and downs" of the CSRC. 2) Further focus on this round of cross year offensive: we also believe that this round of agitation will be more gentle in rhythm. On the one hand, the periodic drive at the denominator end is weakening. At present, the market has fully expected a wide currency rhythm in the first half of 2022. On the other hand, the molecular side still needs to be further verified. The marginal drive brought by the steady growth policy will be verified successively through economic / financial data, which will be the main driver to consolidate this round of cross year market. on the whole, the rhythm of this round of cross-year offensive is flat and slow, and it needs to be steady in adjusting the structure.
industry configuration: pay attention to the configuration of consumption and infrastructure chain. Recommendation: 1) consumption: accelerate the expected bottom, recommend Baijiu, pig, household appliances, furniture and social service / tourism direction with the support of performance and negative expectation. 2) Infrastructure: grasp the key points of new infrastructure such as BIPV and power operation, and also pay attention to the development of traditional infrastructure under steady growth; 3) Finance: securities companies and banks; 4) Consumer electronics.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : Hong Kong stocks are expected to return to the mean value in 2022
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that Hong Kong stocks are expected to return to the average in 2022. In 2022, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the value of Hong Kong stocks may gradually appear again. As mentioned in the 2022 outlook report, considering the favorable policy environment and low valuation level, the Hong Kong stock market in 2022 may be a year of mean return. Of course, a stronger rise in the market may also need the support of positive factors such as the revision of earnings expectations and clearer regulatory policies. In the short term, we expect that the market turnover will continue to be light before and after the holiday. At present, it may take some time to repair the fragile mood. However, with the gradual elimination of short-term uncertainty and the further implementation of the steady growth policy in the year, we believe that the overseas Chinese stock market is expected to rebound gradually, so as to attract more capital inflows.
In the short term, we believe that the Hong Kong stock market may continue to lack a clear direction before and after the holiday, but the current valuation level with comparative advantages and loose liquidity will bring more opportunities in the medium term. In terms of sectors, we suggest paying short-term attention to the beneficial sectors of "stable growth", such as some financial and real estate sectors and related industrial chains, as well as the middle and lower reaches of consumer sectors benefiting from the decline of upstream prices and policy support. At the same time, high-quality growth targets also deserve investors' attention in the medium term. From the perspective of cash flow, we suggest to choose the industry allocation direction of "operating cash flow" (growth stocks) with relatively reasonable valuation and fixed cash flow (high dividend) of some fixed income, such as Internet, automobile, media and entertainment, communication equipment, some finance, utilities and some real estate.
on the whole, we suggest super distribution media and the Internet, cars, some e-commerce, consumer services, food and beverage and catering, biotechnology and Chinese banks; Low distribution upstream coal, raw materials and some transportation, etc. In the long run, we still suggest paying attention to thematic opportunities such as industrial upgrading, consumption upgrading and the rise of domestic consumer brands. Key events: 1) China's economic growth and policy changes; 2) Regulatory policy changes in the concept of shares listed in the United States; 3) Epidemic changes; 4) Sino US relations.
Haitong strategy: optimistic about the market in the first quarter, with a slight advantage in value and market in 2022
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that ① policy: the signal of "steady growth" is clear, and the follow-up policy is expected to be strengthened. ② Fundamentals: it is estimated that the GDP in 22 years will be 5% ~ 5.5% year-on-year, and the roe peak of A-Shares will be 22q1. ③ Liquidity: the long-term trend of asset allocation transferring to equity remains unchanged, and the supply and demand of funds in the stock market is unbalanced in 22 years. ④ Fed interest rate hike: it is possible to start from 22q2, when there will be upward pressure on China US bond interest rates. ⑤ Style: 22 year value, slightly dominant market, CSI 300 is stronger than CSI 500. ⑥ Hard technology: the absolute value of profit growth in 22 years is high, but it is lower than that in 21 years. The opportunity for valuation digestion is market adjustment. ⑦ Consumption: the current valuation is medium and high, the performance growth rate has dropped, and the big opportunity still needs to wait. ⑧ Optimistic about the market in the first quarter, the configuration is balanced, such as undervalued financial real estate, high prosperity hard technology, and consumption following the rebound.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: the A-share market is expected to pick up in January
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities believes that the recent A-share adjustment, the differentiation of long-term and short-term interest rates, and the narrowing of term interest margin more reflect the expectation of economic recession and concerns about the effect of credit easing policy. against this background, the A-share market is expected to pick up in January this year, and the overall performance should be stronger than that in December last year, mainly because the risk appetite and liquidity at the beginning of the year will be improved. however, we should have reasonable expectations for the duration and height of the market this spring, because compared with the beginning of 2021, both economic expectations and incremental funds are lower than last year. From the perspective of economic expectations, investors had recovery expectations for the economy at the beginning of last year, while the current economic data showed weak performance, and both supply and demand showed a downturn. From the perspective of incremental funds, the issuance of new funds reached nearly 500 billion in January last year, and the issuance scale of new funds this year is difficult to compare with that at the beginning of last year. In the spring market over the years, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) believes that this year's spring market should be weak. On the other hand, the strength of the steady growth policy remains to be seen. The release of financial data after the spring festival may be an important time point.
At present, we are mainly optimistic about three directions: first, we are optimistic about the opportunity of transformation and revaluation of undervalued traditional industries: the undervalued sector has higher cost performance and is first repaired in the early stage of wide credit. At present, China's external environment also requires a breakthrough from the transformation. Focus on: thermal power transformation, new energy operation, consumer electronics transformation, automotive electronics, computer media transformation, metauniverse, state-owned enterprise reform and transformation, etc. Second, the opportunity to complete the adjustment of hard science and technology. Out of concern about performance fulfillment or sustainability, the hard technology industry has experienced a shock correction recently. In the long term, the configuration cost performance has gradually become prominent. If its high prosperity can be further confirmed after the beginning of the year, it is expected to end the adjustment and start a new round of market. Focus on: military industry, semiconductor materials, IGBT, photovoltaic, etc. Third, focus on the direction of financial development. The national financial work video conference requires ten key tasks to be done well in 2022. It is proposed to moderately advance infrastructure investment. We believe that the key direction of fiscal policy at the beginning of next year is to focus on infrastructure (especially new infrastructure), green and low-carbon, agriculture (food security and seed industry, etc.).
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : index market is expected in 2022, focus on three directions
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) believes that with the continuous cashing and strengthening of the "wide currency" and marginal "wide credit" windows, the negative factors gradually subside, and the index market is still on the way. China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that the market is expected to usher in an index level rise in 2022, and even a wave of market similar to "mini version 2014". 1. Under the downward pressure of the economy, the "steady growth" on the policy side has been in force, and the market has entered the window of "wide currency" and "wide credit" at the margin. Positive signals such as interest rate reduction and reserve requirement reduction continue to appear, and the market expectation of policy relaxation will continue to rise. 2. The relaxed credit margin environment usually leads to the repair and rise of heavyweight sectors such as finance and real estate, which is often accompanied by the rise of index level. 3. The difference from 2014 is that, on the one hand, 2014 is a comprehensive and systematic relaxation. At present, under the general tone of "real estate does not fry" and "trust but not lift" of infrastructure construction, the intensity and space of policy easing are relatively limited, which is more likely to be phased and underpinning relaxation. On the other hand, 2014 gradually evolved into a round of leveraged cattle, but the current market leverage is weak. Taking floor leverage as an example, the proportion of two financial institutions in the total market turnover increased rapidly from 2013 to 2015, and was close to 30% by the end of 2014. In contrast, the current two financial transactions account for only about 7.6%, and institutional funds are still the leading force in the market.
Focus on three directions. 1) State owned real estate enterprises and new and old infrastructure: on the one hand, benefiting from marginal changes in policies, "steady growth" is expected to rise. The economic work conference called for "moderately advanced infrastructure investment" and "promoting the construction of indemnificatory housing". On the other hand, the subsequent monetary and credit is expected to be further relaxed, which will also bring about the valuation repair of infrastructure, real estate and other sectors. 2) Securities companies: the economic work conference proposed to "fully implement the stock issuance registration system", which is expected to support the long-term performance of securities companies. At the same time, with the continuous deduction of the cross-year market, as a plate with strong linkage with the market, securities companies β Attributes will also be fully interpreted and released. 3) The scientific and technological growth represented by "small high tech" is arranged on a bargain hunting basis. Recently, the scientific and technological growth plate has been adjusted, which is mainly disturbed by factors such as position, mood and style. However, in the medium and long term, scientific and technological growth is still the inevitable choice for high-quality development and bigger cake under the policy of common prosperity. Under the background of the game between China and the United States, it is the most distinctive theme of the times to comply with the current urgent need to improve scientific and technological competitiveness and get rid of the dilemma of "neck sticking".
Investment strategy: in the short term, on the one hand, grasp the phased opportunities for the repair of undervalued state-owned real estate enterprises and securities companies, on the other hand, lay out "small high-tech" with long-term fighting short and bargain hunting. For a long time, focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) Biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : Spring agitation, seize the "double carbon new cycle" and business expectation
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) said that looking forward to the restless market in spring of 2022, it is suggested that the "spring restlessness" of A-Shares grasp the "double carbon new cycle" and economic changes. Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) said that some investors are worried that the huge IPO of China Mobile will have a negative impact on the market and think there is no need to worry too much. At present, the market is still in the "feasible stage". It is suggested to continue to focus on the industrial / policy clues under the "double carbon new cycle" and the medium-term prosperity expectation of the industry under the guidance of the "high-frequency expected prosperity observation model", and layout the restlessness in spring.
It is suggested to continue the balance between high area and low area for industry configuration, (1) reduce the reserve requirement and stabilize the real estate chain (securities companies, white power and consumer building materials); (2) "Double carbon new cycle" + steady growth of new infrastructure (power battery, green power operation, coal chemical industry and military industry); (3) Ppi-cpi scissors difference convergence (food processing).
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : steady growth into the main theme of configuration, track differentiation and rebalancing
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that at the beginning of the year, the local two sessions and the central two sessions will be held successively. Under the triple pressure of "demand contraction, supply impact and weakening expectation", the "steady growth" policy will be actively promoted. Traditional infrastructure, real estate and new infrastructure (new energy, high-end manufacturing and hard technology) are the three main focuses: the Ministry of Finance issued the new special debt limit in 2022 in advance, and infrastructure investment was carried out moderately in advance; The real estate policy seeks "stability", because the city implements policies + encourages real estate enterprises to merge and resolve industry risks; Structural adjustment and progress, new energy, hard science and technology are the key support directions. In January, due to the spread of sporadic epidemic in China (some regions or local Chinese New Year celebrations) and the disturbance of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the A-share industry may show differentiation, and the rapid rotation of plates has become the main feature.
In January, the market is well balanced. Three main lines of allocation: 1. "Traditional infrastructure + real estate" under the background of "steady growth", such as building materials and real estate; 2) The main investment lines of "high-end manufacturing & hard technology": new energy (vehicle), military industry, electronics, etc; 3) Strong themes that benefit from the promotion of policies (support), such as meta universe (media), traditional Chinese medicine, etc.
Guosheng Securities: the next half year is the balance period of style, and the market is expected to return
Guosheng Securities believes that, first of all, in the next six months, whether it is the top-down estimation or the correction based on the individual stock profit expectation, A-Shares are in the profit downward cycle from 2021q4 to 2022q2, and the marginal change of performance begins to tend to the market. Secondly, since 2021, institutional conglomerates have continued to kill the valuation, and now it has fallen back to five years. From the perspective of the relationship between valuation and profit, the valuation of traditional core assets (excluding institutional group stocks of new energy and semiconductor) deviates from the profit expectation, and has medium-term allocation value at this stage. Moreover, as the main incremental force in 2021, the probability of public offering and private placement continuing to exceed expectations in 2022 is decreasing. On the contrary, allocated funds (venture capital) may have a marginal positive contribution in 2022.
In conclusion, the significant excess return of small ticket in 21 years is driven by variables such as profit cycle, market price performance ratio and incremental funds, and these conditional variables are reversing in the medium term in the future. Therefore, perhaps from the dimension of longer cycle, small ticket can still continue to create excess; However, in the next six months, it should be the balance period of size and style, and we should pay more attention to the return of the market.
core conclusions and strategic suggestions: reiterate that weakening restless expectations, returning to fundamental pricing and steady growth are the core beta of the spring market. At the beginning of the year, the probability of "a good start" of incremental funds exceeding expectations is decreasing. In the past, there was agitation in spring, and the logic of pure risk preference improvement is weakening. The credit conditions are about to stabilize in a real sense. The m1-ppi scissors gap will be repaired upward, and continue to be optimistic about the spring market of 22 years, and steady growth is the largest beta main line in the next quarter. （1） Continue to be optimistic about the repair of value stocks in the medium term, and recommend food and beverage, high-quality developers, banks and power operations; （2） New and old infrastructure development direction, the first is: construction / building materials, UHV, communication; （3） Upstream cost reversal machinery, small household appliances, and independent main line military industry.
YueKai Securities: A-Shares have a promising start, and technology stocks are expected to usher in medium and long-term investment opportunities
YueKai Securities said that with the intensive release of the 14th five year plan in the field of science and technology, relevant industries are expected to usher in rapid development opportunities. Recently, many ministries and commissions have intensively released the 14th five year plan for the science and technology industry, pointing out the path for the transformation and upgrading of intelligent manufacturing, national informatization, medical equipment industry, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry, digital transportation and raw material industry, and providing policy support for the rapid development of science and technology related industries. Under the triple resonance of performance, valuation and capital, technology stocks are expected to usher in medium and long-term investment opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the segments mentioned in the 14th five year plan in the field of science and technology, and focus on 5g, integrated circuit, industrial Internet, intelligent transportation, etc.
Through the back test of the new year's day market over the years, A-Shares are expected to have a good start. According to statistics, the Shanghai stock index rose or fell in a period after the new year's Day holiday in the past 10 years, with a high probability of rise, especially in the week after new year's day, the probability of rise of the Shanghai stock index reached 80%. Specifically, in the past 10 years, the probability of Shanghai stock index rising in the week after the new year's Day holiday reached 80%, with an average increase of 2.27%; In the following month, the probability of Shanghai stock index rising reached 60%, with an average increase of 1.04%. On the whole, A-Shares generally have a more positive market performance after the new year's Day holiday over the years. The probability of rise of the Shanghai index is high and the growth style is dominant; Specifically, at the industry level, the electronic and power equipment sector has a high winning rate in the week after new year's day.
we believe that A-Shares are expected to make a good start in 2022 with the support of economic data recovery, superposition policies and performance level. We suggest that investors focus on three main investment opportunities: first, investment opportunities in the science and technology sector with favorable policies; 2、 The consumer sector is expected to usher in a double-click market driven by valuation performance; 3、 Investment opportunities in sectors with higher annual forecast rate and winning rate after new year's day over the years.
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(brokerage China)
