Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Ping An Securities: the state highly recognizes traditional Chinese medicine! Actively pay attention to the exposure of stock selection ideas in the traditional Chinese medicine sector
On December 30, the State Medical Security Bureau and the State Administration of traditional Chinese Medicine issued the guiding opinions on medical insurance supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, emphasizing the need to give full play to the advantages of the medical security system and support the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine. We believe that the release of the opinions further shows the state’s highly recognized attitude towards traditional Chinese medicine and strengthens its support for the development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry.
The introduction of the opinions will promote the further release of the demand for traditional Chinese medicine, so as to benefit the long-term development of the industry. We suggest paying active attention to the traditional Chinese medicine sector and stock selection ideas: 1) targets with stable fundamentals, sufficient adjustment and high valuation cost performance; 2) Mainly OTC varieties, low proportion of traditional Chinese medicine injections and strong R & D ability of new traditional Chinese medicine; 3) The consumption attribute is strong, and the core products should have the expectation of price increase.
In terms of investment strategy, main line 1: innovation Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain, including innovative drugs (machinery) and CXO CDE’s new deal accelerates the evolution of “new ecology” of China’s innovation, and the industry is facing “re differentiation”. We should pay attention to companies with clinical Oriented Innovation Ability and license out ability. We suggest to pay attention to: Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Baiji Shenzhou, Xinda biology, Corning Jerry, Shenzhen Chipscreen Biosciences Co.Ltd(688321) . In terms of CXO, we prefer cdmo and macromolecular CXO tracks by maintaining a high outlook. We suggest paying attention to: Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) .
Main line 2: products go to sea. The overseas market is a huge incremental market, there is a high threshold for the export of preparations, and the going to sea of medical devices has also become a new growth driving force of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to: Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , etc.
Main line 3: consumer healthcare. With the growth of per capita disposable income, the demand for consumer medical care is increasing. At the same time, consumer medical products are self funded products, with independent pricing power and immunization fee control policy. It is suggested to pay attention to: Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Yantai Zhenghai Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300653) , etc.
Main line 4: the traditional Chinese medicine sector has been in the adjustment stage for a long time, and the overall valuation is low. Enterprises with steady performance growth in the sector have high cost performance and prominent layout advantages. And the export of traditional Chinese medicine products is less, and the internal circulation attribute is obvious. Some traditional Chinese medicine products are more inclined to health care products with stronger consumption attributes, which can be benchmarked with some food enterprises.
On this premise, we believe that the subject matter with sufficient adjustment and low valuation deserves special attention. Among them, enterprises with a larger proportion of OTC drugs in the fee control policy of immunization and medical insurance, better room for price increase of products and a smaller proportion of traditional Chinese medicine injections have greater flexibility. It is suggested to pay attention to: Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) , Kpc Pharmaceuticals Inc(600422) , etc. In addition to the above three main lines, there are also some other tracks with high prosperity and high barriers: including characteristic API and nuclear medicine. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Jiangxi Fushine Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300497) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Yantai Dongcheng Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002675) , and Yuanda medicine. []
Dongguan Securities: national policies support the development of traditional Chinese medicine from top to bottom! Three path layout
On December 30, the State Medical Security Bureau and the State Administration of traditional Chinese Medicine issued the guiding opinions on medical insurance supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine. After the release of the opinions, we can see that the national policies support the development of traditional Chinese medicine from top to bottom, and various specific measures are constantly being implemented.
① The terminal coverage of medical insurance is fully expanded. It is expected that the coverage of traditional Chinese medicine products by medical insurance will increase, and the prices of some traditional Chinese medicine medical services are expected to increase. Traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces, Chinese patent medicine and traditional Chinese medicine preparations in medical institutions will enjoy marginal increment, and the positive impact of decoction pieces and traditional Chinese medicine preparations in hospitals will be greater.
② Traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces still maintain an additive proportion of no more than 25%. Chinese traditional Chinese medicine formula particles are included in decoction pieces management. In the future, traditional Chinese medicine formula particles are expected to continue to maintain a rapid growth trend in hospital channels.
③ Traditional Chinese medicine medical institutions do not implement DRG payment temporarily, and the disease type coefficient and score of traditional Chinese medicine have been appropriately increased in the implemented regions, indicating the government’s attitude towards traditional Chinese medicine and the overall support of medical insurance for traditional Chinese medicine. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited(600332) , Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) with brand value and exclusive product advantages. []
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) : high quality and innovative development of drugs are the main theme in the next 5-15 years! Specific configuration ideas
The state strongly supports the development of traditional Chinese medicine, inherits and innovates the development of traditional Chinese medicine, which is not only a major event for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, but also an inevitable requirement for building a health development model with Chinese characteristics in which traditional Chinese medicine and Western medicine complement and develop in a coordinated manner; High quality and innovative development of drugs are the main theme in the next 5-15 years. In 14th Five-Year, the 12 full text of the plan referred to clinical value and clinical urgent need, 12 references to innovative drugs and 11 references to generic drugs. The SFA will further encourage and support the research and development of innovative drugs and generic drugs with clinical value.
Specific allocation ideas: 1) in the field of traditional Chinese medicine: it is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Chinese traditional medicine, Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , and recommend Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) ; 2) Biotech innovative drugs: it is recommended to pay attention to kangfang biology, etc., and Xinda biology, Yasheng medicine-b, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) ; 3) Innovative drugs and industrial chain: recommend Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) ; 4) API field: it is recommended to pay attention to Jiangxi Synergy Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300636) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) and recommend Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) . []
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: optimistic about innovative traditional Chinese medicine, brand traditional Chinese medicine and traditional Chinese medicine manufacturers with consumption attribute and scarcity attribute
National policies continue to support the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry. The traditional Chinese medicine industry is one of the key industries protected by the state. The relevant national policies actively encourage the development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry and the traditional Chinese medicine decoction piece industry. The relevant regulatory departments of various provinces have also formulated relevant policy provisions to increase support for the traditional Chinese medicine industry and related enterprises. The continuous improvement of the industry supervision system and the support of industry regulations and policies are conducive to the sustainable and healthy development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry.
Brand Chinese medicine has the ability to raise prices. Recently, the ex factory prices of Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) Angong Niuhuang Pill and Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) Huoxiang Zhengqi oral liquid have increased, which has aroused the market’s attention to the price raising ability of brand traditional Chinese medicine. Due to the price rise of upstream raw materials, brand traditional Chinese medicine has become the main force of price rise. Brand traditional Chinese medicine has both drug and consumption attributes. It has strong independent consumption and superimposed consumption upgrading. It is basically not affected by the cost control of medical insurance. In recent years, due to the limitation of precious traditional Chinese medicine raw materials, the price has increased significantly.
In terms of investment suggestions, we are optimistic about innovative traditional Chinese medicine, brand traditional Chinese medicine with consumption attribute and scarcity attribute, and the transformation of high-quality and low-cost traditional Chinese medicine manufacturers. It is recommended that Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , the in vitro cultivation bezoar business of its affiliated subsidiary continues to rise in both volume and price under the background of shortage of natural bezoar, and the price of its OTC brand Longmu Zhuanggu granules has also been raised. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Guangyuyuan Chinese Herbal Medicine Co.Ltd(600771) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , etc. []
Guorong Securities: industry valuation is expected to reshape! Vaccine enterprises have obvious investment value at this stage
The valuation of the vaccine industry is expected to reshape. Due to the long-term and complexity of covid-19, we believe that the valuation method of vaccine enterprises will be reshaped. Although covid-19 vaccine is currently under development, it is still unknown how to control the global epidemic in the future. There are still a large number of countries in Africa with extremely low vaccination rate. If not controlled, there is still the possibility of outgoing mutants. Low and middle-income countries need more cost-effective vaccines, and there is still room for Chinese vaccine enterprises to go to sea.
At present, the valuation of the vaccine industry is low, and we think we can pay attention to it. Covid-19 vaccine going to sea and long-term vaccination will continuously expand and prolong the demand. On the supply side, we believe that the first mover vaccine will have more obvious data and trust advantages, and the change of competition pattern is better than expected. Although the decline in fertility has a certain impact on the vaccine market, considering the low penetration rate of some vaccine varieties in China and the long-term sea space of enterprises, we believe that vaccine enterprises have obvious investment value at this stage. []
Xiangcai Securities: focus on “innovation” and policy “immunization” consumer medical industry chain
When aging meets the new medical reform, it is recommended to “innovate” and “immunize” the consumer medical industry chain: (1) the innovative drug seller “CXO” industry chain company: the continuous improvement of global pharmaceutical R & D investment and R & D outsourcing penetration makes the scale of CXO market maintain a high growth rate; Due to its human resource cost advantage and innovation ability, China CXO company will continue to benefit from the general trend of overseas capacity transfer to China. At the same time, China’s new medical reform and good pharmaceutical venture capital financing environment make pharmaceutical R & D in full swing. It is expected that the CXO industry is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of more than 20% in the next 3-5 years. It is recommended to focus on clinical cro leading companies and back-end cro / cdmo companies.
(2) Private specialized medical services: with the growth of disposable income and the improvement of health awareness, the medical market has gradually transformed from a disease driven market (i.e. treating the sick) to a health driven market (i.e. providing medical services and actively improving the quality of life). Consumer medical treatment shows an upward trend. The state continues to encourage social capital to run hospitals. Private specialized hospitals are small under policy suppression. It is suggested to focus on leading companies of specialized medical services such as stomatology and ophthalmology.
(3) Third party medical laboratory: the aging, the enhancement of health awareness and the surge of chronic disease cases urge people to find and take active preventive measures as soon as possible, which will promote the demand for medical testing. Independent medical laboratories have many testing items and strong technical ability, which have obvious advantages over the hospital’s own testing departments. It is expected that with the continuous improvement of inspection demand and ICL penetration, the scale of China’s ICL industry will continue to maintain steady growth. It is recommended to pay attention to ICL leading companies. []
Hongta Securities Co.Ltd(601236) : multi policy intensive support for the traditional Chinese medicine industry the future development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry will sink to grass-roots medical treatment
Many national medical policies involve the traditional Chinese medicine industry, which will play a positive role in the development of China’s medical system in the future. In the early stage of medical reform, policies such as the supervision of Chinese patent medicine and the refund of local medical insurance led to the market being too pessimistic about the future development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry. Recently, many of China’s “14th five year plan” policies on the pharmaceutical industry involve the traditional Chinese medicine industry, which we believe will play a positive role in its future development.
We believe that with the promotion of the national dip / DRGs medical insurance payment system, there will be great structural changes in China’s county-level medical market. A number of policies are guiding the traditional Chinese medicine industry to sink and enter the county medical market. With the improvement of dip / DRGs system, the profit model of medical institutions will be completely changed, and medical institutions pay more attention to the economic ratio of treatment. Therefore, the traditional Chinese medicine service with safety guarantee and high cost performance into medical insurance may become one of the best choices for grass-roots medical institutions. Beneficiary objects: China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited(600332) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) , etc. []
Wanhe Securities: in 2022, the pharmaceutical industry has valuation repair space key recommended policy immunization track
In 2022, the pharmaceutical industry has the space for valuation and repair, and the policy immunization track is mainly recommended. At present, the valuations of all sub sectors of the industry are below the historical average level. With the performance repair of sectors related to hospital diagnosis and treatment activities, all sectors of the pharmaceutical industry have the possibility of valuation repair in 2022. Considering the enterprise’s performance in 2022 in combination with the centralized purchase policy, epidemic development and other factors, it is recommended to pay attention to the high-quality track with growth and certainty: 1) CXO, an industrial water seller with centralized purchase immunization + innovation and upgrading; 2) Medical service chain institutions with upgraded consumption and centralized immunization; 3) The penetration rate continues to increase, and there is a broad space for domestic substitution in the field of medical and aesthetic medicine. []
