Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing in the coming year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. in the short term, the leading economic indicators continued to rise, indicating a continuous economic recovery. The last week of last year’s collective rush to raise funds from the north, the recovery of market sentiment and the start of the monetary easing cycle, the spring market is still worth looking forward to.
Today, both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened high. After opening, they fluctuated lower and quickly turned green. Since then, they have continued to decline. The gem fell by more than 2%. Since then, the financial and other sectors started, leading the index to bottom up, and the Shanghai index nearly turned red in the session. On the disk, individual stocks rose more and fell less, and more than 300 stocks rose. In terms of sectors, traditional Chinese medicine, digital currency, pork, Yuan universe and other sectors led the increase. In terms of decline, salt lake lithium extraction, CRO, semiconductor, power equipment, energy storage and other sectors led the decline.
The whole day’s high opening and low going was unexpected to the market, especially when the overall stability of the peripheral market during the new year’s day and the continuous recovery of the pre holiday index, the large intraday retreat was still strange. However, if it is prolonged, it is still in the upward trend in the second half of last year and in the band upward process since November last year. At present, it is still in the recovery after stepping back in mid December last year, and the overall trend of shock is still good.
In addition, throughout history, the spring market has always been a stage of investors’ expectation and market performance. According to the statistics of Guokai securities, in the past three years, except that the market fell sharply after the Spring Festival due to the covid-19 epidemic in 2020, the market trend in the spring of the other two years is commendable. For a long time, the market advantage in spring has tended to decline in recent ten years, and the stage with good performance is mainly concentrated from January to February.
The current situation is that the market fundamentals are well supported under the tone of steady growth. With the central bank’s RRR reduction and LPR reduction, the monetary easing cycle has begun, the expectation of reasonable and abundant liquidity is strong, and the overall market is expected to boost. The macro liquidity expectation at the beginning of the year was good, and the overall foundation and trend remained good in the first quarter.
Overall: with the policy of steady growth, we continue to be optimistic about the market in the first quarter. In this process, with the opening of the easing cycle, the overall recovery opportunity of undervalued blue chips deserves attention. In the short term, the market ushers in consolidation, but there is no substantive bad. Instead, consolidation is a good time to bargain hunting, and investors can still consider bargain hunting for appropriate allocation. In terms of specific opportunities, it is suggested to explore from three angles: first, the “steady growth” or phased main line from the policy perspective, and the involved sectors can track building materials, construction machinery, food and beverage and household appliances; Secondly, it can also be superimposed with varieties with high attention to funds in the north, such as financial and other value blue chips, in which it can focus on the securities sector with undervalued value and good performance; Third, science and technology and new energy are mainly varieties with relatively uncertain growth under the downward pressure of the economy.
(Jufeng Finance)
