Today (January 4) is the first trading day in 2022. The index is a little ugly, and A-Shares have lost their “good start”. Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher on the whole, the stock index fluctuated lower at the beginning of trading, and accelerated diving and turning green; In the afternoon, the decline of the Shanghai index narrowed and almost turned red. Unfortunately, the gem index is still relatively fierce.
As of the close of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all day, the Shanghai index fell 0.20% to 3632.33 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.44% to 14791.31 points; The gem index fell 2.18% to 3250.16.
From the disk point of view, light index heavy stock market reproduction, structural opportunities are prominent. In terms of industry, traditional Chinese medicine, cultural media, agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishing, tourism and hotels led the rise. In terms of theme stocks, the concept of prefabricated dishes, the concept of traditional Chinese medicine, aquaculture, virtual digital man, pork concept and exclusive drugs led the rise.
In terms of capital, the central bank announced on January 4 that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the people’s Bank of China carried out RMB 10 billion reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding on January 4, 2022, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.20%. Today, 270 billion yuan of reverse repo expired, so a net return of 260 billion yuan in a single day.
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1. According to CCTV news, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the development and Reform Commission recently jointly issued a notice to clarify the technical index system and policy termination date of subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles. The notice will be implemented from January 1, 2022. According to the notice, in order to create a stable policy environment, the framework and threshold requirements of the current technical index system of purchase subsidies shall remain unchanged. At the same time, adhere to the gradual decline of subsidies. In 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021; For qualified vehicles in urban public transport, road passenger transport, rental (including online car Hailing), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express, civil aviation airport and public service of Party and government organs, the subsidy standard will decline by 20% on the basis of 2021. The notice specifies that the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and the vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will not be subsidized.
2. According to 21 financial reports, qunar platform has successively received notices from airlines. According to the spirit of relevant documents of the national development and Reform Commission and the Civil Aviation Administration, the collection of fuel surcharges on Chinese routes will be cancelled from 0:00 on January 5, 2022 (ticket issuing date). On November 1, 2021, the Levy of fuel surcharge will be resumed. The standard for levying fuel surcharge on Chinese routes is that except for special groups such as infants, children and revolutionary disabled soldiers, adult passengers will charge a fuel surcharge of 10 yuan per passenger on routes less than 800 km and 20 yuan per passenger on routes more than 800 km. The cancellation of the levy is also the result of the decline in aviation fuel prices.
3. According to the news of the State General Administration of sports on January 4, in accordance with the national basic public service standard (2021 Edition) and relevant policy requirements, the State General Administration of sports, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the National Health Commission and the Ministry of emergency management have studied and formulated the basic public service standard for national fitness (2021 Edition) and issued it recently. Provincial sports administrative departments shall, in conjunction with relevant departments and in combination with local conditions, pay close attention to clarifying the implementation measures, work steps and time arrangement of the standards in their own regions, so as to effectively protect the basic public service rights and interests of the people. On the premise of meeting the requirements of the standards, we can study and formulate the local public service standards and service catalogue for national fitness in combination with the local people’s needs, population size and the reality of economic and social development, and take multiple measures to promote the construction of a higher level public service system for national fitness.
4. According to the Ministry of ecological environment on the 4th, recently, the Ministry of ecological environment, the development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of natural resources, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, the Ministry of water resources and the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas jointly issued the “14th five year plan for the protection of soil, groundwater and rural ecological environment” Make systematic deployment and specific arrangements for agricultural and rural ecological environment protection. The plan puts forward 20 specific tasks from four aspects. The first is to promote the prevention and control of soil pollution, the second is to strengthen the prevention and control of groundwater pollution, the third is to deepen the treatment of agricultural and rural environment, and the fourth is to improve the ability of ecological environment supervision.
institutional view
For the current market, Cinda securities mentioned that if the Q1 index fluctuates very violently (the index amplitude exceeds 15%), January will generally be the starting point of this fluctuation. This is mainly because at the beginning of the year, due to the adjustment of assessment cycle and the need of fund allocation, the funds and positions of various investors are easy to fluctuate greatly. From January, we need to focus on verifying the activity of residents’ funds and the improvement of credit brought by stable growth. If both factors are optimistic, the cross-year market can last until March. Otherwise, January may be the end of this wave of cross-year market.
Aijian Securities said that the overall market risk is small, pay attention to short-term fluctuations, and there are still many market opportunities. Only the style is switched to small and medium-sized market value again. At present, the policy environment is good and the liquidity expectation is good. We can still grasp the trading opportunities in the market. In terms of opportunities, we continue to pay attention to the recovery of low-level sectors. The time and range of preliminary adjustment related to lithium resources are large, but the industry fundamentals are still good. Pay attention to the recovery opportunities. At the same time, the activity of science and technology and military industry can also continue to pay attention, follow the market and grasp trading opportunities.
In addition, will there be policy and epidemic inflection points in the market around the Spring Festival this year? Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) thinks the probability is low. We can see that the core reason why the previous spring festival became a watershed in the market came from the policy change and the black swan incident. At present, from the perspective of policy, whether monetary policy, credit policy or fiscal policy, the next quarter will be the stage of policy implementation. From the perspective of epidemic development, after the impact of the epidemic for two years, the current market expectations for the interpretation of the epidemic are neither as optimistic as at the beginning of 2021 nor extremely pessimistic. From the perspective of performance, the market performance expectation may be relatively stable before and after the Spring Festival: on the one hand, the annual performance of Listed Companies in 2021 is not poor, and the probability of annual report forecast and express disclosed in January will not have a significant impact on the market performance expectation; On the other hand, although the performance in the first quarter is relatively under pressure, the intensive disclosure of relevant information in the first quarter may be from March to April.
In the macro aspect, Chuancai Securities pointed out that the central economic conference set the tone of “stable growth” in 2022 in December, and mentioned that the fiscal policy and monetary policy will be coordinated together, which means that not only the monetary policy will be relatively loose this year, but also the fiscal aspect will continue to make efforts, which is expected to form a strong support for China’s macro liquidity and national economy. As for the investment ideas in January, we believe that the layout should be carried out from the perspective of “policy support + performance improvement”, and it is suggested to focus on power infrastructure, agriculture (Rural Revitalization Catalysis), military industry and so on.
From the perspective of investment suggestions, the agency further analyzed: first, the direction of Rural Revitalization. From the statement of the central economic conference, rural revitalization is expected to be one of the main keynote of the policy in 2022. Rural Revitalization is another consolidation and effective connection of poverty alleviation, can effectively prevent rural residents from returning to poverty again, and is also a key link to achieve common prosperity. It pays attention to agriculture and rural infrastructure.
Second, the direction of military industry. Recently, many military enterprises have restructured or injected capital, and the industry boom is good; During the “14th five year plan” period, the equipment was updated and the increment was clear, which supported the profits of industrial enterprises; In terms of institutional allocation, the current allocation proportion of institutions to the military industry is also growing.
Third, the direction of auto parts. The automobile core shortage is alleviated, and the industry is expected to enter the stage of large capacity in 2022; At the same time. The fall in commodity prices will reduce industry costs and industry profits are expected to improve.
The main idea of industry allocation, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) said that the growth is dominant in the environment of “weak economy + wide currency”. The growth segments with good cost performance and clear industrial cycle are preferred, taking into account the consumer sector under the logic of price increase. Specifically, 1) considering the cost performance and the performance growth of the growth sector, there is room for improvement in the automotive, computer, media and military industries, with a high safety margin.
2) From the perspective of the rotation of the science and technology industry cycle, the breakthrough and development in the software field may become the main driving force for the valuation expansion in the expected leading capital market. In this round of science and technology cycle with consumer products such as automobiles and VR glasses as the carrier, the emergence of killer software and applications is still waiting to further catalyze the significant growth of sales. Attention should be paid to media, software development It services, optical images and other scenery continue to subdivide the track.
3) The value sector with oversold and deterministic performance in the early stage is mainly concentrated in consumption style. Among them, the year-on-year prediction of the performance of the food, beverage and household appliance industry in 2022 has significantly improved, has the momentum of valuation and repair, and has allocation value. In January, the preferred industries are electronics, media, national defense and military industry.
