After three consecutive positive years of the Shanghai index line, what kind of market will A-Shares deduce in 2022?
According to incomplete statistics, as of January 4, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , Guoyuan Securities Company Limited(000728) , China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) and other securities companies have released the top ten forecasts or keywords for 2022. There are obvious differences in the prediction of the market trend, and some securities companies are optimistic about the stability and rise of A-Shares during the year.
more opportunities in the first half than in the whole year
the general trend of A-Shares in 2022 is obviously different
Despite the volatility of the market, the A-share stock index still rose by 4.80% in 2021, breaking the stock proverb of "no more than three cows". What are the views of securities companies on the overall market trend in 2022?
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the A-share market is expected to have more opportunities in the first half of the year and relatively flat in the second half of the year.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) believes that A-Shares are expected to "suppress first and then rise": there will be a wave of pressure on the index in 2022, but if the trend of loose liquidity continues in 2022, after the index fully reflects the downward pressure on earnings, the rising valuation is expected to drive the A-Shares to reverse.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that the operation of A-Shares is greatly affected by the credit cycle. The third quarter of 2022 will usher in the starting point of a new upward cycle, and the whole year will show a trend of "stabilizing before rising". In terms of earnings, the overall A-share earnings growth in 2022 will continue to slow down quarter by quarter. However, it will converge after entering the second half of the year.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that the market is still expected to usher in the rise of index level in 2022 because the steady growth of policy is already in force. The market has entered the window of "wide currency" and "wide credit" at the margin. The relaxed environment of credit margin usually leads to the repair and rise of heavyweight sectors such as finance and real estate, which is often accompanied by the rise of index level.
From the perspective of profitability, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that although the profit growth in 2022 is dragged down by the upstream industry and may not be excellent as a whole, the macro policy is gradually relaxed, the overall valuation is not high and the liquidity is supported. The opportunities of A-Shares in 2022 may be greater than the risks. The median annual income of A-share equity mutual funds may be significantly higher than that in 2021.
blue chip returns or continues to grow stronger?
brokers express their views
After the switch from large blue chip to small and medium-sized growth in 2021, which style is more expected to achieve excess returns in 2022?
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that blue chip is the main investment line throughout 2022. In terms of specific direction, it is suggested to focus on the midstream manufacturing and consumption field in the first half of 2022 and the opportunities in the consumption and technology sector in the second half of 2022.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that most asset prices rose in 2021 because the central banks of major economies did not act on upward inflation, monetary policy remained loose, and small and medium-sized stocks and growth style were relatively dominant. The Fed's interest rate hike will bring style switching, and blue chips are dominant again. This switching process is expected to be completed during this year's "spring agitation".
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) it is predicted that in the stable growth stage, the performance of the partial growth sector with large early increase, high valuation and expectation and not low position may be restrained periodically. After the growth expectation is stable, it is expected that the market style may still turn to the partial growth field. From the perspective of the whole year, the growth style with sustainable growth may be the focus of obtaining excess returns.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) pointed out that the "small high-tech" field with smaller market value, higher growth rate and in line with the "new increment" of science and innovation will become a trendsetter in the future. At present, the most important field of "new increment" is scientific and technological innovation. The large scientific and technological innovation fields represented by new energy, new generation information technology, military industry, high-end manufacturing and biomedicine are expected to become the main battlefield of excess returns in the future.
in 2021, many securities companies saw new energy vehicles
Looking back on the previous year, China's major securities companies made many predictions for 2021. What "divine prophecies" finally came true, and what judgments were "slapped" by reality?
It is found that at the beginning of 2021, many securities companies made accurate judgments on the new energy vehicle industry chain. China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) it is predicted at the beginning of 2021 that for the new energy vehicle industry, the scale expansion caused by the real demand of the downstream is expected to spread the prosperity to the whole industry.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the intensified competition and price war in the new energy vehicle market in 2021 will stimulate the growth of terminal demand and drive the middle and upper reaches to maintain a high boom.
The point position judgment of some securities companies on the main stock indexes in the market has also been verified. Guosheng securities raised the annual gem target to 3300 at the beginning of 2021. The data show that not only did it close on December 31, 2021, but the gem index ended at 3322.67 points. It stood at 3600 points for many times during the year and reached a new high in the past six years.
At the beginning of 2021, many securities companies were quite optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market. For example, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that Hong Kong stocks had a higher probability of outperforming A-Shares in 2021. The valuation advantages of Hong Kong stocks and the secondary listing of more and more Zhongyu stocks will further enhance the attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks.
Although the rising of Hong Kong stocks in early 2021 boosted the optimism of the market, then affected by multiple factors, the market index turned downward, and the Hang Seng Index finally fell 14.08% for the whole year, far worse than the three major indexes of A-Shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen.
(China Securities Journal)
