On March 15, the Shanghai stock index fell 3100 points, and the north capital sold a net 16.024 billion yuan unilaterally again.
In early trading today, the three major A-share indexes rose and fell with each other. The Shanghai stock index fell close to 5% at one time and fell nearly 100 points at one time; The gem index took the lead in turning red, with an intraday increase of more than 1%; Shenzhen composite index fell 12000 points.
As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 4.95% to close at 306397 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 4.36% to close at 1153724 points, and the gem index fell 2.55% to close at 250478 points. The turnover of the two cities exceeded the trillion mark, and more than 100 stocks fell by the limit.
In terms of individual stocks, Pku Healthcare Corp.Ltd(000788) , Anhui Shanhe Pharmaceutical Excipients Co.Ltd(300452) , Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) , and youningwei rose by the limit; Real estate, Baijiu and resource stocks plunged all over the world, with Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) and Xinjiang Zhundong Petroleum Technology Co.Ltd(002207) dropping the top. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) both fell by more than 5%.
From the perspective of capital, northbound capital once again sold a unilateral net sales of 16.024 billion yuan today, reaching the third in the history of single day net sales.
Data show that since March, the cumulative net sales of northbound funds have exceeded 64.5 billion yuan, after the monthly historical record of northbound funds sales was 67.87 billion yuan in March 2020.
Just last week, from March 7 to March 11, the net outflow of funds from northbound exceeded 36 billion, and the weekly net outflow reached a new high in nearly two years.
Zhang Qiyao, an China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) analyst, analyzed the reasons for the recent sharp outflow of funds going north. On the one hand, it was attributed to factors such as increased volatility in overseas markets and the continued hawkish of the Federal Reserve caused by stagflation risk; On the other hand, more importantly, under the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical risks, confrontation and game between major powers have intensified, or become the root cause of the substantial outflow of foreign capital and overseas “long money”.
Zhang Qiyao reviewed the net inflow of allocation in the past two years and said that it is often only when there are systematic risks in the market or intensified policy risks that allocation oriented foreign capital will have a rare continuous reduction of positions. At present, overseas inflation is high, the US Federal Reserve is about to tighten, and the conflict situation between Russia and Ukraine is still unclear. The market is worried that it may face the risk of substantial withdrawal of foreign capital from A-Shares in the future.
“In view of the uncertain conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the increased risk of stagflation, global liquidity or continuous tightening, foreign capital still faces fluctuations in the short term; in the medium and long term, under the background of high real interest rate difference between China and the United States, resilient RMB exchange rate, China’s sustained and stable fundamentals and investment environment, foreign capital inflow into A-Shares is still a long-term trend.” Zhang Qiyao thinks.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) chief strategist Dai Kang believes that after the rapid correction in the early stage, the current A-share valuation has been significantly digested, the negative emotions in the early stage have been significantly released, the overall environment of A-share has been improved, and it has medium and long-term configuration value. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to low peg varieties.
Dai Kang believes that the main reason for the recent sharp outflow of foreign capital is the fluctuation of global risk appetite.
“Since 2016, there has been a significant negative correlation between the panic index VIX and the net inflow of funds going north. Since March, VIX has continued to be at a high level of more than 30%, resulting in the continuous net outflow of funds going north. However, on March 9, when the situation in Russia and Ukraine eased, VIX fell sharply by 7.6%. At the same time, the external stock market rebounded strongly + crude oil fell sharply, and the sustainability of foreign capital outflow is difficult to maintain.” Dai Kang thinks.
