Since this year, coal, banking, architectural decoration, petroleum and petrochemical and other relatively undervalued sectors have shown strong resilience. Many securities companies have intensively mentioned the allocation opportunities in the direction of undervalued value in the Research Report on industry strategy.
Some institutions believe that the absolute valuation and relative valuation of A-Shares have a certain cost performance, which provides space for medium and long-term profitability, and the short-term undervalued “steady growth” sector may have relative returns; In addition to the undervalued sector, the first quarterly report is expected to exceed the expected varieties and the “high dividend + undervalued” portfolio is also a direction worthy of attentionp align=”center” style=”text-align:left;”> underestimated sector toughness
Since the beginning of the year, the continuous adjustment of A-Shares has led to the decline of the overall valuation of the whole market and industry sectors. Compared with the overvalued growth sector with a larger correction range, the relative “toughness” of some undervalued sectors is particularly prominent at present.
According to wind data, from the beginning of this year to the closing on March 15, among the 31 Shenwan industries, the coal sector ranked first with an increase of 2.29%, and it is also the only sector to close up; From the perspective of sector valuation, since the continuous rise in mid November 2021, the latest price earnings ratio (TTM) of the coal sector is only 10.46 times, ranking the fifth lowest among the 31 Shenwan industries.
As of the closing on March 15, the decline of banking, architectural decoration and petroleum and petrochemical sectors was relatively small, and their performance was better than that of the three major A-share indexes in the same period; From the latest sector valuation, the price earnings ratio (TTM) of the above three sectors are 5.8 times, 10.3 times and 12.4 times respectively, ranking the first, fourth and seventh lowest among the 31 Shenwan industries.
Many funds with heavy positions in the undervalued sector have also shown obvious anti falling attributes since the beginning of the year. According to wind data, as of the closing on March 14, the three active equity funds of Wanjia macro timing and multi strategy, Wanjia Xinli and Wanjia selection have achieved an increase of more than 10% since the beginning of the year. From the latest positions by the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, the top ten heavy positions of the above funds are almost all concentrated in real estate, coal and other sectors.
From the recent research reports released by securities companies, many securities companies released industry research reports around securities, non-ferrous metals, optional consumption, social services, transportation, commercial trade, media, communication, medicine and biology, food and beverage and other fields, all of which mentioned the layout opportunities for low valuation targets, especially the undervalued targets determined by performance.
Taking China Post securities as an example, it pointed out in a research report on the brokerage sector that the brokerage sector has shown a callback trend since the beginning of the year, with a high safety margin. Considering that the recent performance forecasts and express reports disclosed by a number of securities companies show that the growth of revenue and net profit has increased steadily, and there are many bright achievements, it is considered that the fundamentals of the securities sector have not deteriorated, and the downward trend of stock price and valuation has opened the allocation time pointp align=”center” style=”text-align:left;”> focus on opportunities in subdivided fields such as infrastructure and securities finance
Combined with the valuation data of the whole A-share market, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) concludes that with the adjustment of the market and the decline of bond maturity yield, the absolute valuation and relative valuation of A-share have a certain cost performance, which provides space for medium and long-term profitability, especially the structural undervaluation and the allocation cost performance of dividend sector are still very high, It will continue to be attractive to absolute return funds; For medium-term investors, the super allocation small cap value style has better odds and cost performance.
In China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) view, the valuation of China’s market is at a relatively low historical level, which is also attractive compared with other major markets. Structurally, the short-term undervalued “steady growth” sector may have relative benefits. In terms of specific industry allocation, it is suggested to pay attention to the potential supporting areas of policy development such as infrastructure, real estate stable demand related industrial chain (building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.), brokerage finance, and the middle and lower reaches of consumption with more adjustment, low valuation and uncertain medium and long-term prospects in 2021, including household appliances, light industry and home furnishings, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc.
For the layout direction of the undervalued sector, it is found that there are two kinds of opportunities recognized by securities companies in the near future: one is that the quarterly report is expected to exceed the expected varieties, and the other is the portfolio of “high dividend + undervalued value”.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) recently, it continues to be optimistic about the varieties with relatively low valuation. It is suggested that investors pay attention to high-quality developers, building materials and household enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, communication operators with significantly improved cash flow, fine chemical enterprises with the ability to launch new businesses such as new materials, etc. in addition, it is also suggested to focus on the varieties that are expected to exceed the expectations in the first quarter report, It is suggested that 1-2 months of operation will be disclosed for lithium, photovoltaic, semiconductor, Baijiu, medicine and construction.
China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) pointed out that during the bear market, the high dividend portfolio is more resistant to decline than A-Shares as a whole. The reason is that the high dividend portfolio can provide cash flow similar to bond interest when facing risk and reduce individual stock risk. Moreover, high dividend usually means undervaluation and can provide a margin of safety for stock price. In January, the social finance data improved greatly, and the strength of the “wide credit” policy began to show. The long-term interest rate may decline in the short term, and the high dividend may further usher in the market. With the rise of the bottom of the economy, the performance of undervalued banks and real estate is expected to improve, which has a strong ability to resist external risks.
