Summary:
All indicators of the real estate market were significantly better than market expectations, the most prominent of which was that the real estate investment reached + 3.7%, and the sales amount / area only decreased by 19% / 10% respectively, significantly better than the sales data disclosed by major real estate enterprises in the previous two months. According to Kerry data, according to the equity sales amount, the sales amount of most real estate enterprises fell by 30-50%. At the same time, according to the data disclosed by listed leading real estate enterprises, the sales amount also fell by 30-50%. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, the sales volume of the remaining real estate enterprises may rise significantly. At the same time, the real estate investment data also reached 3.7%, while the single month growth rates from September to December 2021 were – 3.5% / – 5.4% / – 4.3% / – 13.9% respectively. There was a significant recovery of the single month year-on-year growth rate, which was also significantly better than expected.
If the year-on-year growth rate is calculated according to the quarter on quarter growth rate of the past 11 years, the real estate investment, sales amount and sales area in a single month in March will be further repaired to + 5% / – 10% / – 5%. According to the historical data since 2011, according to the month on month growth rate and year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment, sales amount and sales area in March, the real estate market will further improve, and the real estate investment will reach + 5%, while the sales area will only decline by 5%. If so, the market concern will be further reduced.
We should not be too optimistic about the current property market because the data performance exceeds expectations. The land market is the front market of the property market and is still in a sharp decline. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, the land purchase area has fallen by 42%, indicating that there is still downward pressure on the property market. The essence of real estate lies in real estate, not real estate. At present, the land market is still in a relatively cold state. Both the land acquisition data disclosed by real estate enterprises and the land acquisition area data of the Bureau of statistics are in a sharp decline. Considering the important position of land credit in the whole credit system, it is expected that it will still have an adverse impact on the property market.
The data verification moves backward, which has an adverse impact on the section in the short term, but the policy still needs to be in the process of correction, and the current pressure on real estate enterprises to shrink the table is still large. Recommend Poly Real estate, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , China overseas development, China Resources Land, China Jinmao, green city China, CNOOC property, China Resources Vientiane services, etc. among central state-owned enterprises; Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , rongchuang China, rongchuang service, Xuhui holding group, country garden, Longhu group and Baolong business benefit from 5I5J Holding Group Co.Ltd(000560) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , country garden services.
Risk tip: the government re liberalizes the pre financing and land finance model.
