Events
On March 12, the company signed the investment cooperation agreement with the people’s Government of Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) city and the people’s Government of Yijinholo banner, and planned to invest in the construction of 20GW monocrystalline silicon rod and chip project with an annual output of about 7.6 billion in mengsu Economic Development Zone of Yijinholo banner, Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) City, Inner Mongolia 30GW high-efficiency single crystal cell project (with an investment of about 10.3 billion) and 5GW high-efficiency photovoltaic module project (with an investment of about 1.6 billion) have reached a cooperation intention, and the total investment is about 19.5 billion. The above projects shall not be put into operation for more than 6 months and reach production for more than 24 months since the plant, warehouse and auxiliary facilities are handed over to Longji project company for use.
\u3000\u30001. The upstream leader accelerates the expansion of production, and the photovoltaic equipment manufacturers make good profits. The essence of PV industry expansion / technology iteration is the pursuit of cost reduction and efficiency increase. At present, the industry is in the early stage of transformation from n-type to p-type. Under the background of high-speed iteration of industry technology and accelerated production expansion of enterprises, it is expected to drive the equipment investment to exceed expectations.
\u3000\u30002. The capacity gap of the company’s batteries and components is gradually expanding, and we estimate that the battery chip is the focus of this expansion. According to the company’s disclosure, as of 21q3, the company’s own battery capacity was 37.3gw and its own components were 57.7gw.
The mismatch between the company’s own battery and module capacity is prominent, and the annual capacity gap is 20.4gw The new single crystal battery project capacity will effectively make up for the company’s battery capacity gap and further consolidate its leading position. It is worth noting that according to the contract, if the Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) government fails to meet the conditions as agreed in the contract within 24 months from the date when Longji 30GW battery project is put into operation, Longji has the right to adjust the construction progress of 20GW monocrystalline silicon rod and wafer project and 5GW high-efficiency photovoltaic module project according to the actual market situation. Therefore, we estimate that the cell project is the core of this expansion.
\u3000\u30003. The unit investment of battery chip has reached 343 million. The production expansion is expected to focus on the new battery route, but the route has not been determined yet. The unit investment of the battery is 343 million yuan, which we believe is mainly used for equipment investment: according to the contract, the plants and warehouses expanded this time are mainly leased and are expected to enjoy some preferential government support. Therefore, we estimate that the investment is mainly used for the purchase, installation and commissioning of production and process equipment. As far as we know, the production expansion route of 30GW is not clear, but Longji has made great progress in the fields of IBC, heterojunction and TOPCON.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Liancheng CNC, Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , etc.
Risk warning: there is still uncertainty in the implementation of the project; The promotion speed of silicon rod and battery expansion project is lower than the market expectation; The product demand is less than the market expectation; Product demand is affected by downstream technological changes; The relevant policies of photovoltaic industry were less than expected.
