Core view:
From January to February 2022, social security zero increased by 6.7% year-on-year. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February 2022, the total amount of social zeros in China was 7.44 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.7%, an increase of 5.0pp compared with December Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles were 6.73 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%.
By region, the growth rate in rural areas is slightly higher than that in urban areas. From January to February, the retail sales of urban consumer goods reached 6.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; The retail sales of rural consumer goods reached 983.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. By type, the revenue of commodity retail and catering increased steadily. From January to February, commodity retail was 6.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%; From January to February, the catering revenue was 771.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%.
By category, the growth rate of basic consumer goods decreased. The growth rate of food grain and oil from January to February was 7.9%, with a month on month decrease of 3.4pp; The growth rate of daily necessities from January to February was 10.7%, with a month on month decrease of 8.1pp The growth rate of optional consumption increased. The growth rate of gold, silver and jewelry from January to February was 19.5%, with a month on month increase of 19.7pp; The growth rate of cosmetics from January to February was 7.0%, with a month on month increase of 4.5pp In addition, the growth rate of building materials and furniture from January to February was 6.2% and – 6.0% respectively, with a month on month decrease of 1.3pp and 2.9pp respectively The growth rate of communication equipment from January to February was 4.8%, up 4.5pp month on month; The growth rate of automobile from January to February was 3.9%, up 11.3pp month on month.
From January to February, the growth rate of e-commerce increased month on month and the penetration rate decreased month on month. From January to February, the online retail volume of physical goods in China was 1.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. The penetration rate of e-commerce was 22.0%, with a month on month decrease of 2.5pp and a year-on-year increase of 1.3pp By category, from January to February, the retail sales of physical e-commerce increased by 12.7%, 3.9% and 15.1% respectively.
Investment advice: gold jewelry is a track we continue to be optimistic about. There are many positive marginal changes in 2022 Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , DEA issued the announcement of operating data from January to February, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company exceeded 30%. The leading companies continued to enrich the brand and product matrix, and the improvement of Industry Valuation had good performance support. It is suggested to pay attention to DEA, Chow Tai Fook, Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) . The overall prosperity of cosmetics is relatively stable, but the brand differentiation is more and more obvious Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) released the business data announcement from January to February. The revenue from January to February increased by 30%, 146.7% (cosmetics business) and 55% respectively year-on-year, which fully verified the logic of product power brand power profitability.
The 38th Festival is the first large-scale festival for beauty brands since the beginning of the year. During the event, the sales of the official flagship stores of mibel, Jihuo, Cuddy, Caitang, Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Winona tmall increased rapidly year-on-year, reflecting the strong explosive power and anti risk ability of the brand, which is expected to contribute more performance. It is suggested to pay attention to Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) . As a combination of channels and media, e-commerce is difficult to survive the downward trend of consumption. It is expected that the business fundamentals will gradually recover in 2022. The leading companies are already located in the value area. It is suggested to give priority to the platforms with large long-term upward space, good category competition pattern and good performance growth. It is suggested to pay attention to pinduoduo, JD (US / Hong Kong stocks), Alibaba (US / Hong Kong stocks), baozun E-commerce (US / Hong Kong stocks), Hangzhou Onechance Tech Corp(300792) , Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) .
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn affects optional consumer demand; Intensified market competition; Low operational efficiency; The development of new products is less than expected.
