Key investment points:
On March 15, the major indexes of the market continued to fall sharply. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the key point of 3100, down 4.95%. At the same time, the gem fell 2.55%; In terms of size, the CSI 500 fell 5.67%, while the CSI 300 fell 4.57%. In terms of transaction volume, the two cities traded 1.12 trillion yuan throughout the day, an increase of 154.4 billion yuan over the previous trading day; In terms of funds going north, the large-scale net outflow throughout the day was 16.025 billion yuan, a new high since July 2020. In terms of industries, shenwanyi industries fell to varying degrees, with coal, real estate, steel, public utilities, building materials and other steady growth sectors leading the decline, all exceeding 6.0%, while the growth sectors such as power equipment, computer, electronics, national defense and military industry fell relatively slightly.
On the 15th, the main reason for the further decline of the A-share market was that on the one hand, the negative impact of the previous adverse factors continued, including the sharp decline of the Hong Kong stock market and the large-scale outflow of foreign capital, which suppressed the risk appetite of investors, and the market sentiment was in a relatively fragile state, while the reduction of buying further increased the decline of the market. On the other hand, it comes from the latest economic data. Although it exceeds market expectations, there are still structural worries. Specifically, the economic data from January to February show that, on the whole, infrastructure investment has increased significantly. At the same time, real estate investment has also achieved positive growth, indicating that the “steady growth” policy has initially taken effect; However, from the breakdown data, the cement production, new construction area, land purchase area and Chinese loans increased significantly year-on-year, indicating that the foundation for the improvement of the real estate side is not solid, which triggered the concern of the market. In addition, after the fall of financial data, the expectation of MLF interest rate cut on the 15th finally failed. The “government work report” of the two sessions stressed “promoting financial institutions to reduce real loan interest rates and reduce charges”. We believe that the driving force for the central bank to further reduce interest rates to meet real demand still exists in the future.
For the downward trend of the market, we maintain the recent view that the factors that are more perplexing to the current market are the external uncertainty factors, which lead to the continuous outflow of funds going north, while the risk avoidance behavior of domestic capital aggravates the market fluctuation to a certain extent. Therefore, in the short term, we continue the view of the weekly report that there is still the possibility of repetition of external risk factors and domestic risk aversion, or promote the repeated process of the bottom of the market. However, in the medium and long term, the expectation that the steady growth policy will promote the recovery of enterprise prosperity is relatively clear, and it is expected to bring the low point of enterprise profitability upward. The market panic and the venting process of risk aversion factors will probably bring low allocation opportunities within the year.
Risk tip: overseas market fluctuation risk, economic downturn exceeding expectations, and global epidemic development exceeding expectations.
