Affected by the increase of rubber exports from Malaysia and the lowest price of Shanghai Rubber 2205 contract, the outer market of Tianjiao fluctuated on the 15th.
On the same day, the contract of SICOM tsr20 in May closed at 170.7 cents / kg, down 2.6 cents / kg or 1.5% compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day; SICOM RSS3 contract closed at 211.5 cents / kg in April, up 1.5 cents / kg or 0.714% compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day; Japan’s ose rubber main contract closed at 243.4 yen / kg in August, down 1.5 yen / kg or 0.61% compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day.
In terms of raw material price, on March 15, Wuchan Zhongda Group Co.Ltd(600704) otai Singapore Co., Ltd. provided data that the price of Thai cup glue was 50.5 baht / kg, equivalent to 1760 US dollars / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day (the discount decreased by 10 US dollars / ton); The price of glue was 63.5 baht / kg, down 0.5 baht / kg compared with the previous trading day; The price of white film was 63.5 baht / kg, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Indonesian cup glue is idr23500 / kg, equivalent to USD 1800 / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day (no change in discount). The quotation of Indonesian factory is US $1800 / ton in May.
According to the information released by qinrex, the Malaysian Bureau of Statistics said that in January 2022, the country’s natural rubber exports increased by 6.3% year-on-year to 51158 tons, an increase of 11.3% month on month. Among them, 37.7% were exported to China, and other export markets and proportions were 7% in the United States, 3.8% in Finland, 3.3% in Germany and 3.2% in Iran. In January, the import volume of natural rubber in Malaysia was 142255 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% and a month on month increase of 25%. Standard rubber, concentrated latex and natural rubber of other shapes are the main import categories, and the main import source countries are Thailand, C ô te d’Ivoire, the Philippines, Myanmar, etc. In January, the total output of natural rubber that can be monitored in the country was 49087 tons, an increase of 7.3% year-on-year and 17.7% month on month. Among them, the output of small plantations accounted for 89.1%, and the output of state-owned plantations accounted for 10.9%.
Wuchan Zhongda Group Co.Ltd(600704) OTEC Singapore General Manager Hu Bo believes that the increase of import and export in Malaysia reflects the stable growth of Tianjiao supply side, but this has been fully reflected in the link of fundamental inventory and has been fully priced in the disk. He said that at present, the decline of Shanghai Rubber reflects the deep concern of the market about the commencement of tire factories. However, Hu Bo said that the operating rate of tire factories is only a factor reflecting demand, not the real impact on consumption. In the whole supply chain, this will promote the taking action of tire dealers, so as to effectively reduce the finished product inventory of tire factories. Therefore, he believes that the current market is based on the emotional response under extremely poor demand. At the current stage, rubber has oversold, and there is a possibility of rebound in the medium and short term.
