On March 14, the three major indexes of the A-share market fell across the board, with the Shanghai index, Shenzhen Component Index and gem index falling by 2.61%, 3.06% and 3.56% respectively. A shares fell more than 4300, and 51 stocks rose against the market limit. Northward capital continued to flow out, with a net outflow of 14.408 billion yuan on the 14th.
Analysts said that the recent decline of A-Shares has accelerated or the worst factors of the market have been digested by investors. In the long run, it is currently in a very good layout time point.
“market bottom” is approaching
Recently, the A-share market has continued to adjust. As of the closing on March 14, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index had fallen by 6.90%, 10.35% and 10.79% respectively since March. Since March, the accumulated net outflow of northbound funds has reached 48.501 billion yuan; Last week, the net outflow of funds from the North was 36.320 billion yuan, the third highest in the history of net outflow in a single week. Previously, the net outflow of northbound funds was 41.795 billion yuan from March 9 to March 13, 2020 and 37.115 billion yuan from July 6 to July 10, 2015.
Looking back on the previous two times, the market bottomed out quickly after a significant net outflow of funds from the north. After the substantial net outflow of northbound funds from March 9 to March 13, 2020, the Shanghai Composite Index hit the lowest point in 2020 – 264680 points on March 19, 2020, and then rose all the way, reaching a maximum of 347492 points on December 31, 2020. During the period of substantial net outflow of northbound funds from July 6 to July 10, 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a phased low of 337350 points on July 9, 2015, rose all the way after hitting a full year low of 285071 points on August 26, 2015, and hit a peak of 3684.5 points in the second half of 2015 on December 23, 2015.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) chief economist and chief strategist Xun Yugen said that compared with historical data, the time and space for the current round of adjustment of the CSI 300 index have been relatively obvious. At present, the valuation of A-Shares is at a historically medium low level, and the market valuation is at a medium low level since 2013. From the perspective of profit growth, the current point of the CSI 300 index is similar to the 2935 point at the beginning of 2019.
\u3000\u3000 “Recently, A-Shares have suffered serious emotional venting due to the superposition of uncertain factors. On the one hand, the recent overshoot of A-Shares has seriously deviated from the tone of China’s loose policies and stable growth; investor sentiment has seriously deviated from China’s sound economic fundamentals; the current valuation level of A-Shares has seriously deviated from the historical and global comparable valuation level. On the other hand, the expectation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has gradually changed Critical point of; Investors’ emotional venting and position reduction are also approaching the critical point, and the “bottom of the market” of A-Shares has been confirmed twice. ” According to Qin Peijing, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) chief strategist.
northbound funds reduced positions for days
According to choice data, as of March 11, the market value of northbound capital positions was 2.35 trillion yuan, and the market value of northbound capital positions decreased by 141.5 billion yuan last week. Last week, the number of shares held by northbound capital in 655 shares increased, of which 36 shares increased by more than 10 million shares, with the largest increase in Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) and Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) shares, with an increase of 110 million shares, 103 million shares and 654968 million shares respectively.
Last week, the market value of northbound capital’s positions in seven stocks increased by more than 500 million yuan, with the largest increase in the market value of Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) positions, with the market value of positions increasing by 2.577 billion yuan, 2.532 billion yuan and 2.451 billion yuan respectively. However, last week, northbound capital reduced its positions in a total of 965 stocks, of which 95 stocks were reduced by more than 10 million shares Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) were among the highest number of shares that were reduced, with 131 million shares, 118 million shares and 904597 million shares reduced respectively.
Last week, the market value of northbound capital’s position in 68 stocks decreased by more than 500 million yuan, and the market value of China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) positions decreased by 85.789 billion yuan, 8.741 billion yuan and 4.974 billion yuan respectively.
On March 14, northbound capital reduced its position by 14.408 billion yuan, with the largest net sales of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , and China stock market news of 1.556 billion yuan, 801 million yuan and 667 million yuan respectively.
balanced configuration style and Industry
Xun Yugen said that from the opening of the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect in 2014 to 2021, the northbound capital flows into A-Shares every year. The long-term trend of foreign capital inflow into A-Shares is relatively large.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) chief strategist Zhang Qiyao believes that in view of the uncertain outcome of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the increased risk of stagflation and the continuous tightening of global liquidity, foreign capital still faces fluctuations in the short term. In the medium and long term, under the background of high real interest rate difference between China and the United States, resilient RMB exchange rate, China’s sustained and stable fundamentals and investment environment, the inflow of foreign capital into A-Shares is still a long-term trend.
Qin Peijing said that the “market bottom” of A-Shares has been confirmed twice, and will usher in the resonance upward of value stocks and growth stocks with the repair of the three deviations. It is suggested to adhere to the style and balanced allocation of the industry, adhere to the main line of steady growth, and focus on the layout of “two low positions”. Recently, we will focus on lithium, photovoltaic, semiconductor, Baijiu, medicine, and construction.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) chief strategist Zhang Xia believes that there are some positive signals in the current market. A shares may have entered the process of bottom seeking and bottom building. When many uncertain factors fall from mid April to mid May, A-Shares are expected to return to the upward cycle.
