Affected by local overseas conflicts and the decline of China concept stocks, A-Shares were dragged down again in the morning trading today (March 15). The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. The Shanghai index occasionally repeated in the session, but also quickly suffered pressure, and the decline was relatively fierce; The gem index is relatively resistant to decline, and once turned red and pulled up. Unfortunately, it is difficult to sound alone, and the follow-up trend remains to be observed.
From the disk point of view, the industry and concept sectors fell more or rose less, and the local profit-making effect was poor. It is noteworthy that there was an action to protect the stock market in the stock market of securities companies, but it failed to be realized. However, it stimulated the intraday strength of concepts such as electronic ID card, East number and West calculation. In addition, the concept of covid-19 medicine is popular again, led by Fujian Cosunter Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300436) , Hybio Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300199) , Jiangsu Sinopep-Allsino Biopharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688076) , Staidson(Beijing) Biopharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300204) , Xilong Scientific Co.Ltd(002584) , etc.
Bohai Securities mentioned that in the short term, there is still the possibility of repeated external and other risk factors and domestic risk aversion, or promote the repeated process of the bottom of the market. However, in the medium and long term, the expectation that the steady growth policy will promote the recovery of enterprise prosperity is relatively clear, and it is expected to bring the low point of enterprise profitability upward. The market panic and the venting process of risk aversion factors will probably bring low allocation opportunities within the year.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[Topic 1] covid-19 drugs
Guosheng Securities pointed out that medicine has entered the layout range, which can be moderately optimistic, and the medium and short term is still bottom-up. Up to now, the “double high problem” has been obviously solved, and the conditions for bottom rebound have been met. In the short and medium term, the market has not yet found a clear main line, and the oversold rebound may become the strongest direction in stages.
The agency further mentioned that our idea is to select individual stocks from bottom to top. There are three points to sum up: 1) select individual stocks with “fundamental common sense valuation oversold and discount”, in other words, they fall to the second-order guide of irrational valuation range. Here you can see more pharmaceutical science and technology innovation with obvious overall decline and individual stocks with high identification & clean chip structure. 2) Excavate stocks with high growth or may exceed expectations in the first quarter, which can be combined with the previous oversold situation. 3) The sub areas of “domestic demand policy immunity” and “foreign demand is relatively rigid” are selected to take into account the comprehensive and sudden impact of the current geopolitical environment and medical policy environment, especially the emotional impact. Such as self-control, China covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain, traditional Chinese medicine, adult class II vaccine, rehabilitation, cdmo, etc.
AVIC Securities said that according to the announcement and annual report previously released by Pfizer, the price of a single course of paxlovid is $529. It is expected that the revenue of covid-19 oral medicine will reach $22 billion in covid-19 treatment products in 2022. Covid-19 oral medicine, as the last puzzle in the current covid-19 treatment industry chain, has broad market prospects. In addition to the innovation expectations given by enterprises directly involved in covid-19 oral drug research and development, China’s CXO industrial chain has a complete integrated chain with obvious cost and efficiency advantages. The order announcements issued by some enterprises also confirm our previous view. In the short term, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the R & D of covid-19 small molecule drugs, and pay attention to the listed companies deeply involved in the supply chain of covid-19 preventive drugs, including Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) -u, Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) and Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) etc.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that considering the background of the pharmaceutical industry, on the one hand, the uncertainty caused by the continuous implementation of the centralized procurement policy this year (centralized procurement of consumables, national procurement, alliance procurement, etc.), on the other hand, the short-term pharmaceutical industry sector has not seen clear favorable policies / changes, and there is no upward momentum in the short term. It is advisable to look at the quantity of scenery. The valuation of many pharmaceutical companies has reached a very reasonable range. The uncertainty of changes brought by policies makes many investors unable to start. We suggest the direction configuration of this year: Traditional Chinese medicine (policy friendly + undervalued value) + medical equipment (medical infrastructure) + scientific research reagents and upstream + looking for the target from bottom to top in other directions.
[subject 2] electronic ID card
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) mentioned that the electronization of ID card does not simply convert the physical ID card into digital form, but needs to ensure that the electronic identity information can be marked with the corresponding subject and distinguished from other subjects without being intercepted, tampered with and forged with the support of cryptography, identity authentication and other technologies. According to the white paper on Eid digital identity system issued by the Third Research Institute of the Ministry of public security, digital identity is a mark representing the set of identity attributes of the subject. Considering the similar functional attributes of digital ID and electronic ID card, we believe that electronic ID card is expected to continue the PKI technology context of Eid.
The agency further analyzed that there are many relevant sectors of the digital ID card industry chain, and the core track manufacturers are expected to benefit from resonance. (1) Manufacturers of core technologies of identity authentication and recognition, including intelligent information collection and identity recognition manufacturers such as face recognition and fingerprint recognition, password solution manufacturers such as PKI, CA certification manufacturers, electronic signature manufacturers, etc; (2) construction of digital management platform for identity cards in public security departments, such as the Ministry of public security’s citizen network identity recognition system, the Internet plus trusted identity authentication platform (CTID platform), etc. (3) Other auxiliary technology manufacturers, including smart chip hardware manufacturers, QR code recognition module manufacturers, and data security solution suppliers.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that in the early stage of the construction of digital identity infrastructure, there were scenes of tens of millions of terminals. The offline application of digital identity can be divided into three levels: the first level is the function of ID card, which is used to replace ID card, passport and residence permit in government affairs, hotels, airports and other places; The second level is the comprehensive replacement of various legal documents based on ID cards, including student cards, old-age cards, social security cards, etc; The third level, broad identity authentication and record, involves all access and authority related occasions, such as exhibition, home stay, public rental, etc.
It is conservatively estimated that only in the fields of medical treatment, finance, hotel and home stay, the realization of the first level application can bring the magnitude space of more than 13 million devices: 1) at the end of medical institutions, there are 1.02 million medical and health institutions in China, including 35000 hospitals. Assuming an average of 3 devices per medical institution (in fact, the magnitude of hospital demand is larger), the total demand is more than 3 million; 2) On the financial institution side, there are 220000 bank outlets, 10000 securities business departments and 6.4 million insurance salespeople across the country. Assuming that the average number of equipment for each bank outlet / securities business department / insurance salesperson is 10 / 5 / 1 respectively, the total demand is more than 8.5 million units; 3) There are 280000 hotels in China, and the total number of home stay facilities exceeds 280000.
The above is only the first stage of ID card level calculation. The space of level II and level III generalized authentication applications is at least one order of magnitude larger than that of level I applications.
[Topic 3] calculation from the east to the West
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) indicates that in “counting from the east to the west”, the “number” refers to the data, and the “calculation” refers to the computing power, that is, the processing capacity and computing capacity of the data. Computing power, like water conservancy in the agricultural era and electricity in the industrial era, has become the core competence of the development of digital economy. Generally speaking, “counting from the east to the west” is to develop a data center in the western region and put the data and demand generated by economic activities in the eastern region into the western region for calculation and processing.
The agency further analyzed that “counting from the east to the west” is the category of new infrastructure, which will benefit enterprises in relevant industrial chains, especially bring obvious development opportunities to information technology enterprises such as computers, communications, optoelectronic devices, basic software, network security, cloud computing and big data. For example, many data centers need to be built for the East digital West computing project, which often needs many high-performance computers, chips, communication facilities, etc. For example: 1) data center supplier: a third-party data center manufacturer with clustered data center operation and maintenance experience and sufficient later expansion capacity; 2) Optical communication supplier: high speed optical module or g-pon related stocks; Optical fiber and cable related stocks; 3) Hardware equipment manufacturers such as servers: realize technological innovation and mode innovation such as heterogeneous computing power integration, cloud network integration and data security circulation; 4) Digital industrial application; 5) Data security protection.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that China West Construction Group Co.Ltd(002302) data center has many advantages: sufficient energy supply, suitable climate conditions, low electricity price and land cost, sufficient energy consumption indicators, etc. The implementation of “counting from the east to the west” is conducive to improving the overall computing power of the country on the one hand; On the other hand, it is conducive to promoting green development and driving the development of relevant industries in the West.
[theme 4] securities companies
BOC International securities mentioned that the deepening reform of the capital market continued to advance, the undervalued value was more firm and bullish on securities companies. The recent decline of securities companies is mainly affected by overseas tightening expectations, the instability of the international situation, and the cooling of the A-share market and public fund market. Despite the emotional fluctuations caused by changes in the external environment, the continued deepening reform of the capital market is good for securities companies in the long run.
Recently, the measures for the implementation of listing and transfer of delisted companies in the delisting sector was publicly solicited for opinions, strengthened the cooperation mechanism of all institutions in the delisting process, and unblocked the delisting channel by simplifying the listing requirements of delisted companies and establishing the undertaking mechanism of host securities companies. The smooth delisting channel helps to optimize the capital market ecology of “in and out, survival of the fittest” and is the cornerstone of the full implementation of the registration system. With the continuous pace of favorable policies, securities companies still face broad development space. Under the undervalued value caused by changes in the external environment, they are more determined to look at the future trend of securities companies. If the overseas situation eases and the market valuation repair drives the trading activity again, it is expected to help the valuation repair of the sector.
The agency further analyzed and continued to recommend the trademarks of leading and financial management characteristic bonds in combination with favorable policies, performance differentiation and long-term growth drivers: 1) the reform of registration system is imminent, improve the marketization level of capital market, and bring more opportunities to head investment banks with strong comprehensive ability and their direct investment and follow-up business. Market fluctuations will lead to significant differentiation of investment business, and the trading mode of head securities companies is expected to bring more stable performance.
2) although market fluctuations may lead to a temporary decline in the scale of public fund management business and consignment business in the wealth management industry chain, residents’ wealth continues to accumulate, the policy of “housing without speculation” is unswerving, and the growth trend of wealth management demand for maintaining and increasing residents’ wealth remains unchanged, which can still bring long-term growth contributions to securities companies.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that the securities sector adheres to the valuation logic from cycle to growth. With the deepening reform of the capital market, the sector may welcome valuation repair. Recommend Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , a leading securities firm that goes out of the bear market structure and continues to benefit from the improvement of the capital market environment; Recommend companies with flexible performance in asset management and wealth management, such as Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) ; It is suggested to pay attention to the progress of Beijing Compass Technology Development Co.Ltd(300803) becoming an investor in the bankruptcy reorganization of wechat securities; It is recommended to pay attention to China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) (H shares), and the insurance sector is recommended to pay attention to Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) .
