Today (March 10), Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reappeared the pattern of weak adjustment. The three major indexes opened low in the morning and showed a pull-up performance for the first time, but the rebound strength was limited. The gem index fell again after a short red market, and the rebound strength of the other two indexes was weaker. The index opened in the afternoon to accelerate the downward trend. Finally, the three major indexes closed down, the two main board indexes also broke the low point, and the Shanghai index fell below the integer mark of 3100 points.
In this regard, Bohai Securities mentioned that due to the great impact of overseas local conflicts and the decline of overseas Chinese stocks, funds going north also showed a continuous departure trend. However, generally speaking, the departure of funds going north still complies with certain rules, and the panic decline of the market may come from the risk aversion of Chinese funds.
At the same time, the agency further analyzed that in the short term, external and other risk factors and domestic risk aversion still have the possibility of repetition, or promote the repeated process of the bottom of the market. However, in the medium and long term, the expectation that the steady growth policy will promote the recovery of enterprise prosperity is relatively clear, and it is expected to bring the low point of enterprise profitability upward. The market panic and the venting process of risk aversion factors will probably bring low allocation opportunities within the year.
I. coal sector: down 8.11% center
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities said that value discovery will become the main theme of coal stock investment in 2022 and explore three alpha opportunities at the same time. 1) Under the policy adjustment, the high elasticity of performance brought by the sharp rise in prices will be difficult to appear in 2022, but it can be clear that the profit center of the industry will jump to a higher level. It is estimated that the profit of the sector increased by about 80% in the first quarter, and the value discovery will become the main driving law of coal stock investment in 2022. 2) The industry capital expenditure – cash flow – Finance – profit – dividend will be continuously optimized. The new dividend scheme under the high long-term association and high profit in the annual report is worth looking forward to, and the transformation of some enterprises is expected to accelerate.
Cinda securities mentioned that at this stage, the industry fundamentals, the underlying logic of policies and the direct effect are good, and the valuation of the sector is repaired and improved. Considering the certainty of high performance growth in the first half of this year, it is the best stage for bargain hunting to allocate the coal sector.
The agency previously pointed out that it would continue to look at the coal sector in an all-round way and continue to suggest paying attention to the historic allocation opportunities of coal. It is suggested to pay attention to three main investment lines: first, Yankuang energy, the leader of low value and high dividend power coal, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Second, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , which are both resource scarcity and significant growth; Third, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , which have great potential for extensive expansion brought by the increase of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal group.
II. Power sector: down 6.58% center
Yingda Securities said that the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan attaches great importance to promoting the technological development and large-scale application of the new energy storage industry, emphasizes clarifying the transmission mechanism of energy storage price, accelerating the large-scale development of energy storage on the power supply side, power grid side and user side, and supporting the construction of a new power system. By 2025, new energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development from the initial stage of commercialization and have the conditions for large-scale commercial application. By 2030, new energy storage will be fully market-oriented, basically meeting the needs of building a new power system, and comprehensively supporting the realization of the goal of carbon peak in the energy field as scheduled. With the cost reduction driven by technological progress and the continuous improvement of price mechanism and market mechanism, the types of new energy storage will be enriched, and the industry will usher in a period of rapid development.
Chuancai securities mentioned that with the deepening of the “double carbon” policy, the proportion of photovoltaic wind power and other new energy power generation in the energy structure continues to increase, but the intermittent and unstable characteristics of new energy power generation pose a challenge to the consumption capacity of the power grid. The development of new energy storage will effectively improve the grid connection and consumption capacity of new energy, promote the construction of new power system, and provide guarantee for the vigorous development of new energy.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that under the goal of carbon neutrality, the wind and solar installation center is expected to further rise during the 14th Five Year Plan period. In the photovoltaic field, it is suggested to focus on the silicon leaders Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , new and special energy, Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , and the integrated leaders Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , which benefit from the continuous tight supply and demand pattern, Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) etc. of inverter link, faucet of adhesive film link Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , high-quality supplier of carbon / carbon heat field Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , faucet of battery laser equipment Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , faucet of component series welding machine Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ; In the field of wind power, it is suggested to focus on Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , etc., which benefit from the upgrading of wind power technology; In the field of energy storage, Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) and Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) in the field of pumped storage are recommended.
III. real estate development: down 5.74% center
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that from the perspective of the industry, the recent policy warm wind is blowing frequently, and we think we should strengthen our confidence at this time: ① “stability” is the core demand, which should not be expected to be in place in one step, but the direction is more important. ② The short-term problem is a fact, but it has been digested by the market, not to mention the dawn. ③ The “golden combination” of improved sales boom and rational land market is expected to appear, the profit level of the industry will improve, high-quality real estate enterprises can also return to growth, and alpha resonates with beta.
From the perspective of individual stocks, in the medium and short term, with the greater relaxation of policies in non restricted areas, the second tier leading real estate enterprises with more third and fourth tier cities will benefit more; In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal of the fast turnover mode from the historical stage and the repair of the long-term balance sheet of real estate enterprises, the leading real estate enterprises with stable operation and outstanding comprehensive strength will continue to benefit; In addition, Wuguan leading companies are expected to benefit from the lifting of real estate repression in the future, and the valuation is expected to be repaired. Recommended Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) .
For the real estate industry, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) said that the view that “the first quarter is a better configuration window period” was maintained. We suggest paying attention to three main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, rongchuang China, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) .
3) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination, accelerated concentration, recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng life and xinchengyue service.
IV. complete vehicle: down 5.59% center
Huajin Securities said that the automobile production and sales performance was stable in February, with a large year-on-year increase. In February, the production index and new order index of the automobile industry were higher than 54.0%, and the expected index of production and operation activities has been in the high boom range of more than 60.0% for two consecutive months since January, which is higher than the average level of the manufacturing industry. We expect that the automobile market demand in the first quarter will be relatively stable and the core shortage will continue to ease. However, considering the high base factor in the same period last year, the automobile production and sales will achieve a slight year-on-year growth in the first quarter of this year, and the new energy vehicles will continue to grow at a high rate, with a high probability of exceeding expectations throughout the year. We mainly recommend three main lines: (1) independent brand leader with strong new product cycle: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; (2) Parts enterprises closely related to the electric intelligent industrial chain with high growth certainty: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Guangdong Senssun Weighing Apparatus Group Ltd(002870) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) ; (3) Heavy truck enterprises with increasing market share and expected to usher in a performance inflection point: Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) .
In addition, capital securities mentioned that it is recommended to pay attention to Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) . Suppliers of automotive electronic related parts are expected to realize domestic substitution and increase in price and volume in the acceleration of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to: Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (EPB + brake by wire), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (intelligent lamp), Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (lamp control), Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (Intelligent cabin system), etc.
