In recent years, China has made continuous technological breakthroughs in the field of carbon fiber, and enterprises have gradually realized large-scale carbon fiber production. At the same time, with the development of new energy market and the continuous expansion of downstream demand for carbon fiber, the carbon fiber market is expected to usher in a period of rapid development, and Chinese enterprises will usher in a wave of rapid development opportunities. In the carbon fiber field, there may be listed companies with a market value of 100 billion in the next few years, and the domestic carbon fiber field is pregnant with huge investment opportunities. In this case, how should we grasp the investment and development direction in the field of carbon fiber? What is the future development trend of carbon fiber?
On March 10, Liu Guangtao, member of Shandong Provincial Technical Committee for standardization of carbon fiber and its composite products, founder and general manager of Dezhou caben Fanbo composite Co., Ltd., gave a comprehensive interpretation around the development process and application direction of domestic carbon fiber, It also makes a detailed analysis of Chinese mainstream carbon fiber industry chain enterprises as investors.
domestic carbon fiber status and industrial structure
With the localization of China's carbon fiber industry chain, the situation that China's carbon fiber field is subject to foreign countries is reversing. Liu Guangtao said in the teleconference of Cailian Fengwang: "From 2000 to 2021, there were two carbon fiber shortages in China. The first was in 2004, when China had almost no production capacity, and Japan's embargo on China caused the first carbon fiber shortage. In 2020, there was the second carbon fiber shortage in China. However, the main reason is different from before. Although Japan cut off power supply again, the main reason is the surge in demand for wind power generation , the consumption has soared from hundreds of tons to 20000 tons. "
At present, the main reason for the shortage of carbon fiber in China is that the production capacity of large tow carbon fiber in China has not been fully completed, and the market supply and demand is tight. Liu Guangtao said: "At present, Chinese enterprises have realized the market development prospect of large tow carbon fiber in the future. Guangwei has a capacity of 10000 tons in Inner Mongolia, Zhongfu Shenying has a capacity of 30000 tons in Qinghai, and with 50000 tons of projects under construction in Xinjiang and capacity under construction in other regions, China's carbon fiber capacity will surpass Japan's Toray in the future, while at present, the world's carbon fiber capacity is only 123000 tons. ”He also added that the carbon fiber production line is expected to take two or three years from construction to production.
At present, China's demand for carbon fiber is increasing, Liu Guangtao said: "In 2020, the consumption of carbon fiber in China will be about 49000 tons, including about 18000 tons made in China. From the perspective of downstream use, the consumption in the field of wind power generation accounts for 20000 tons, which is the fastest growth, mainly because Vestas has solved the process problem of applying carbon fiber board to wind power blades and used pultruded carbon board to wind power blades. In addition, the consumption in sports and leisure is 15000 tons Tons. Pressure vessels of new energy vehicles are also growing rapidly. "
As the main incremental field of carbon fiber in the future, carbon fiber may have great investment opportunities in the field of wind power. Liu Guangtao said at the meeting intermediary: "Vestas's pultruded carbon sector technology has become the mainstream technology of wind turbine blades due to its low cost, and the patent may expire in June this year. In the future, other companies can also use the process. Weihai Guangwei and Jiangsu Aosheng now master the pultruded technology in China. In addition, Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) and other companies are also investing resources in this field."
Liu Guangtao said that the development modulus of domestic carbon fiber is almost the same as that of the international standard t3700, but it is also close to the development threshold of domestic carbon fiber. At present, Liu Guangtao said that the development modulus of domestic carbon fiber is almost the same as that of the international standard t3700
At present, the price of carbon fiber in the Chinese market is slightly higher than that in overseas markets, In this regard, Liu Guangtao analyzed for investors: "at present, the price of carbon fiber in China is about 17% higher than that in overseas countries, which is mainly due to the overall shortage of carbon fiber in the seller's market. The original pricing power was in Toray, Japan. Last year, China's production capacity was only 18000 tons, and the large-scale benefits of production capacity have not been realized." According to President Liu's prediction: "after the domestic carbon fiber production capacity is improved and large-scale benefits are realized in the next two years, it is expected that the market pricing power will be gradually transferred to China."
China's listed carbon fiber companies
At present, among the listed companies in China, Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) ( Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) . SZ), Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) ( Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) . SZ), Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(600688) ( Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(600688) . SH) and Jilin Carbon Valley (836077. BJ) have a relatively complete carbon fiber industry chain. In addition, Hengshen shares listed on the new third board market have finally realized profits.
Data source: company announcement, interface news research department
Liu Guangtao said in the teleconference intermediary: " Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) has been making carbon fiber products since the late 1990s. Starting from making fishing rods, it has introduced China's first wide carbon fiber prepreg equipment. It has gradually penetrated into the field of carbon fiber since 2004, which can be said to start from zero, and has a certain enterprise responsibility. At present, there are two largest pultruded boards in China in the field of wind power, and the first is Guangwei."
"In addition, Jiangsu Hengshen, founded by Mr. Qian yunbao in 2007, is an earlier private enterprise in this field. Now Hengshen has also achieved the production of a full series and the whole industrial chain, basically realizing the goal of establishing an enterprise at that time. However, it began to make profits in the second half of last year. At present, Hengshen is a subsidiary of Shaanxi coal group." Liu Guangtao paid tribute to the two enterprises that have promoted the development of China's carbon fiber industry.
Referring to Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) , Liu Guangtao said that the company's products are less used for civil products, and the products are mainly used in aerospace and other fields. The gross profit level of the company is higher than that of civil products manufacturers. According to the company's financial report, the gross profit margin of Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) products is more than 80%. "The profit margin of ordinary carbon fiber production enterprises is less than 50%." Liu Guangtao added.
Referring to Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(600688) , he said that the company entered the field earlier, but production was suspended for some time. At present, the company produces again and is also expanding production.
"Jilin is also a relatively large base for carbon fiber production in China. For example, in the early stage of Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) and Shaoxing Seiko, a joint venture was established. Now he has acquired another carbon fiber company, from precursor to carbonization, forming a relatively complete industrial chain. In addition, Jilin has Jilin Carbon Valley, which was also successfully listed last year." Liu Guangtao explained to investors at the meeting.
In addition, China's well-known carbon fiber manufacturers also include Zhongfu Shenying. China Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) 's carbon fiber equipment also belongs to the advanced level, and Guangwei can independently produce relevant equipment..
Data source: company announcement, forward looking Industry Research Institute, Shengang Securities Research Institute
China's existing production capacity is mainly dominated by the above-mentioned companies. Meanwhile, various capitals are also running into the market to seize the dividends of the carbon fiber market. According to the currently announced project launch plan, China's new carbon fiber production capacity is expected to exceed 200000 tons in the next few years, and listed companies such as Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) ( Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) . SH), Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) . SH) are also accelerating their entry, According to the analysis of the Research Report of securities companies, listed companies with a volume of 100 billion may be born in the field of carbon fiber in China.
