The air inlet is approaching: the volume of retired batteries is large, and the recycling of new energy vehicles has both environmental and economic benefits. The rapid growth of new energy vehicles has led to a continuous increase in the loading volume of power batteries. In 20172021, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles CAGR was 47.3%, and the installed capacity of power batteries CAGR was 40.4%. Driven by the rapid growth of the electric vehicle market, a large number of power batteries will be scrapped in the future. If waste power batteries are not properly disposed of, there will be great environmental risks, and the use of recycled ternary lithium battery pack materials can reduce the carbon emission of ternary lithium batteries by 19.7% compared with the current ternary lithium batteries, so there is a rigid need for recycling. China's reserves of lithium, nickel and cobalt account for a low proportion of global reserves. Recycling lithium, nickel and cobalt contained in power batteries can effectively alleviate the shortage of resources in China The China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery recycling policy began in 2014. At present, the policy system is gradually improved and recycling is ready.
Business model: clarify the extended producer responsibility system, multi-party collaboration. As an emerging industry, power battery recycling attracts multi-party leading layout. 1) Who recycles: the national policy clearly adopts the extended producer responsibility system, and automobile manufacturers are the main body of battery recycling because they have a variety of resource advantages; 2) Who uses: at present, the participants in the power battery recycling market can be divided into four categories: vehicle enterprises, battery and energy storage enterprises, battery material enterprises and third-party enterprises; 3) Utilization mode: considering the degree of capacity attenuation and economy, lithium iron phosphate is suitable for cascade utilization and then recycling, and ternary battery is suitable for direct recycling; 4) Trend: the complexity of power battery recycling process determines that the cooperation between upstream and downstream of battery industry chain is an inevitable trend in the future. Vehicle manufacturers, battery enterprises, third-party recycling enterprises and battery material enterprises will build an ecological cycle of multi-party cooperation.
Space: it is expected to maintain a long-term and high-profile outlook. The market space is growing rapidly and the prosperity is rising. 1) Ternary battery: the recycling technology is mature and economical, and will take the lead. We expect the ternary battery recycling market to be 27.43 billion yuan in 2030 and 60.1% CAGR in 10 years; 2) Lithium iron phosphate:
We assume that the proportion of echelon utilization will gradually increase, and the battery after three years of echelon utilization will be recycled. It is estimated that the echelon + recycling market will be RMB 36.5 billion in 2030, and the CAGR will reach 67.3% in 10 years.
Pattern: there are differences in the construction of three factors, and the industry concentration is expected to improve. In terms of competition pattern, we analyze it from four aspects: channel, qualification, technology and production capacity, and believe that enterprises with in-depth cooperation with vehicle manufacturers, multi location layout, standardization and technology leadership will take the lead in going out. 1) Channel: at present, the main network layout is the vehicle factory, and Geely and SAIC have the largest number of network layout, accounting for 14.7% and 14.4% respectively; 2) Qualification: as of 2021, there are 47 enterprises on the white list of the Ministry of industry and information technology in China. Although the white list is not compulsory and exclusive at present, informal enterprises can still "run amok" in the industry, the list of enterprises listed in the announcement will be used as a reference for relevant policy support; 3) Technology: the recycling technology is mature. The recovery rates of lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese in the leading enterprises are more than 90%. The echelon utilization is in the early stage of research, and there are still technical difficulties in large-scale application; 4) Capacity: at present, the capacity of enterprises in the industry far exceeds the amount of battery scrap. The capacity is mainly used to deal with powder, 3C waste batteries and battery factory waste, which can temporarily alleviate overcapacity.
Recycling power batteries has environmental protection and economic value. At present, China's recycling system is in a period of gradual standardization and improvement, and the maturity of recycling technology is improving. Taking battery recycling as the core and building a multi-party cooperative ecosystem will be the trend of development in the future. The demand for power battery recycling will gradually increase in the future, and enterprises with standardized and advanced technology, in-depth cooperation with vehicle manufacturers and multi location layout will take the lead in benefiting. Enterprises with layout of power battery recycling include: Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) , Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) , Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , etc.
Risk tips
1. The decommissioning scale of power battery does not meet the expectation;
2. The progress of echelon utilization and development did not meet expectations.
