According to our statistics of retail sales in 2021, the new first tier and second and third tier cities contributed 1.23 million new energy vehicle consumption increment, accounting for 69% of the annual new energy market increment; We believe that in the process of new energy vehicle sales from 3 million to 5 million and 10 million, the consumption of new energy vehicles will continue to sink, and the increment and sinking efficiency outside the first tier cities will be very important. At the end of auto enterprises, the channels of Tesla and Wei Xiaoli are sinking. We are optimistic that new power auto enterprises will obtain better sales growth through channel sinking; At the same time, channel efficiency will become one of the important factors affecting the profitability of enterprises. Reiterated recommendation: ideal automobile (Li. O / 02015. HK), Xiaopeng automobile (xpev. N / 09868. HK) and Weilai automobile (NiO. N / 09866. HK) have an obvious downward trend of new energy passenger vehicles, and the future increment is expected to mainly come from new first tier and second and third tier cities. In 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and passenger vehicles with retail caliber in China has reached 14.4%, with a significant increase of 8.5pcts month on month Driven by high-quality supply, the EV penetration rate of first tier cities increased from 18.2% to 30.4%, and the penetration rate of new first tier, second tier and third tier cities also increased significantly from 6.5%, 3.9% and 4.9% to 16.7%, 12.6% and 12.3% respectively; New first tier and second and third tier cities contributed 1.23 million new energy vehicle consumption increment, accounting for 69% of the annual new energy market increment. On the other hand, in 2021, the sales volume of passenger cars in first tier cities accounted for only 10% of the total sales volume in China; The new first tier cities, second tier cities and third tier cities are larger consumer markets, accounting for 24%, 22% and 21% of the total national sales respectively. We believe that in the process of new energy vehicle sales from 3 million to 5 million and 10 million, the consumption of new energy vehicles will continue to sink, and the increment and sinking efficiency outside the first tier cities will be very important.
We are optimistic that new power auto enterprises will sink through channels to obtain better sales growth. 2021 is a year of rapid increase in the number of new force stores. In January 2022, the number of stores of Tesla, Weilai, ideal and Xiaopeng was 237, 377, 220 and 401 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 38%, + 69%, + 261% and + 120% respectively. The proportion of stores of the four auto enterprises in the first tier, new first tier and second tier cities decreased from 24.5%, 33.9% and 26.3% to 20.7%, 31.9% and 24.5%; The proportion of stores in the third and fourth tier cities increased from 11.6% and 3.3% to 15.6% and 6.7% respectively. The trend of new force stores sinking in the past year was obvious. At present, the new force model matrix is still in the process of continuous fullness and perfection. In addition to attracting customers with different needs through the introduction of new models, the new force also has the potential to achieve growth through sales sinking. For example, compared with its competitor hanlanda, the ideal one is relatively concentrated in regional distribution, mainly because the channel has not yet sunk; The first tier, new first tier and second tier cities contributed 89% of the ideal sales volume, while the value of hanlanda was only 58%.
Channel efficiency affects profitability. Among the three domestic ideal cars, the efficiency is the highest at present. We measure store efficiency by calculating the average monthly sales volume of a single store. In 2021, the average sales volume of Tesla’s stores in the first and third tier cities can reach about 170 vehicles / month. There is no loss of single store efficiency due to the sinking of channels. The high efficiency of opening stores highlights its unique brand appeal. The average monthly sales of stores in ideal, Weilai and Xiaopeng first tier cities are 114, 67 and 56 respectively, and the performance has been very excellent. The difference is not as obvious as the sinking channel. However, with the sinking of stores, the performance of each store began to differentiate; In the second tier ~ fourth tier cities, the sales volume of ideal stores is high, about 50 ~ 60 sets / month. The store efficiency of Weilai and Xiaopeng has declined. The average monthly sales of Xiaopeng in second and third tier cities are about 26 and 22, and 13 in fourth tier cities. The average monthly sales of Weilai second tier to fourth tier cities are 28, 7 and 5 sets respectively. In addition, according to our estimation, the number of inefficient stores of Tesla, Weilai, ideal and Xiaopeng (which have been open for more than 3 months but have an average store sales of 10 in the city) is 0, 57, 8 and 16 respectively, accounting for 0%, 16%, 3.5% and 4.1% of the total respectively. Channel efficiency may become an important winner or loser of new power bicycle SG & A, which is also one of the important factors affecting its breakeven point. Taking 21q3 as an example, the SG & A of ideal, Xiaopeng and Weilai are 41000, 60000 and 75000 yuan respectively, accounting for 13.8%, 26.9% and 18.6% of the revenue. Due to the differences in the current positioning of the main sales models of various automobile enterprises, the current sinking efficiency can not represent the final performance, but the dynamic change of this efficiency index is worthy of long-term tracking.
The launch of new forces’ flagship products in 2022 is expected to open its leading position in joint venture vehicle enterprises. Consumers’ awareness of electric and smart cars in the Chinese market is improving. The original joint venture enterprises have not provided enough high-quality smart electric car supply. New forces are expected to consolidate their advantageous position through new flagship products in 2022. In terms of models, the 3 models released by Weilai this year are based on the new NT2 0 platform is expected to be significantly upgraded compared with the first three vehicles in terms of power and intelligence. Among them, et7 of medium and large passenger cars is expected to be officially delivered on March 28, 2022, and et5 has been released and is expected to be delivered in September 2022; ES7 is expected to be released in April 2022 and delivered in July 2022. We believe that Weilai et7 and et5 will climb to the level of monthly production and sales of 4000 / 6 Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) 0 vehicles this year. Ideal recently announced the interior details of its second car, ideal L9 (code X01); L9 is innovatively equipped with five screens, including central control, passenger and rear cabin entertainment screens, oversized HUD and steering wheel screen, which is expected to take the cockpit intelligent experience to a new height; Two Qualcomm 8155 chips are equipped as standard to provide computing support for the cockpit. The model is expected to be officially released in April 2022 and launched in Q3 in 2022.
We expect the monthly production and sales to reach 5000 units within this year. Xiaopeng will launch the medium and large SUV G9 this year, and is expected to start the reservation in mid-2022 and deliver it in Q3 in 2022. In terms of intelligence, the model is equipped with xp4 0 system, compared with xp3.0 of P5 The 5 system will improve the computing power, so as to bring better urban assisted driving experience. The company is expected to continue to break through the imagination space of assisted driving experience in China. We expect that the production and sales of G9 are expected to climb to the level of 6 Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) 0 vehicles this month. We maintain the sales volume forecast of Weilai / ideal / Xiaopeng in 2022 to be 18 / 18 / 200000 vehicles, and the revenue forecast to be 678 / 558 / 45 billion yuan.
Risk factors: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The launch of new models of each company is less than expected; Major safety events of vehicle type; The intelligent landing is not as expected; Us macro liquidity tightening
Investment strategy: due to the systematic adjustment of zhonggai shares, the fundamentals and stock price performance of the three new forces deviated seriously from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022, but we believe that the new forces have shown excellent allocation value at present. (1) In terms of market value / gross profit, the market value / annualized gross profit multiples (annualized gross profit = 2021q3 gross profit 4) of Weilai, ideal and Xiaopeng are 22 / 20 / 38 times and 56 times respectively for Tesla, while the traditional mainframe Factory Byd Company Limited(002594) (H) is about 16 times. The market value / gross profit multiples of Xinli are comparable to those of traditional automobile enterprises. (2) From the perspective of PS, the current share price corresponds to 2.5/2.8/2.6 times PS in 2022 respectively. We believe that in the long run, after the scale of capital expenditure and R & D investment slows down, the steady-state net profit of new power’s hardware is expected to reach 10%. At present, the 2.5 ~ 3 times PS valuation of new forces only corresponds to 25 ~ 30 times PE (assuming 10% net profit). Reiterated recommendation: ideal automobile (Li. O / 02015. HK), Xiaopeng automobile (xpev. N / 09868. HK), Weilai automobile (NiO. N / 09866. HK)
