In February, residents' medium and long-term loans fell to a negative value historically, reflecting the long tail effect of real estate adjustment.
Many institutions believe that in the future, under the principle of "housing without speculation", there will be more policies and measures to boost residents' confidence in house purchase, try their best to reverse the current situation and stabilize the real estate market.
residents' medium and long-term loans are now negative
The central bank recently released a report on financial statistics for February. It is noteworthy that the medium and long-term loans of residents dominated by mortgage loans decreased by 45.9 billion yuan, showing the first negative growth since the self owned statistics and in January this year, the figure increased by 742.4 billion yuan.
the poor performance of the sales end of the real estate market is the first reason for the negative growth of residents' medium and long-term loans Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) chief economist Mingming said that the decline of residential loans is mainly reflected in the negative growth of medium and long-term loans for the first time, and an important part of residents' medium and long-term loans is real estate mortgage loans, which shows that the current real estate situation is more severe. Bank lending generally lags behind real estate sales. The growth rate of real estate sales area in a single month has entered a negative growth since the third quarter of last year. Therefore, the problem of less year-on-year growth of residents' medium and long-term loans in December last year continues to this day.
Cao xute, an analyst, said there was a certain lag in the response of the mortgage securities market. The main component of residents' medium and long-term loans is mortgage loans, and mortgage loans still need a certain approval time after the sale of commercial housing. Therefore, the data of mortgage loans will naturally lag behind the fundamentals of the commercial housing market. The specific lag time is related to the actual approval speed of the market.
real estate sales are expected to remain low
The sales situation of the top 100 real estate enterprises confirms the poor sales in the real estate market. According to the latest data of Kerui Research Center, in February 2022, the top 100 real estate enterprises realized a sales trading amount of 401.58 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 23.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 47.2%, close to the "waist cut".
Why is real estate sales cold?
the Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) report believes that the low heat of the real estate sales market in February is related to many factors such as holidays. This year's Lunar New Year is from the end of January to the beginning of February. Considering the poor sales in the early stage and the pressure of mortgage loan amortization during the Spring Festival, the mortgage loan showed an incremental shrinking trend in February.
"Due to the strong wait-and-see mood in house purchase, the growth of medium and long-term loans (mainly housing loans) is weak. The transaction area of commercial housing decreased by 27.3% year-on-year in February, and the pessimistic expectation of the real estate market continues." Xinda securities macro report said that to avoid credit collapse, the focus is to avoid mortgage collapse.
Looking forward to the future trend of real estate sales, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) report said that from the historical trend, the trend of land transfer fee is basically consistent with the real estate sales area and real estate sales amount. Under the background that the prudent management system of real estate finance remains unchanged, "double reduction" affects the real estate expectation of the school district and the promotion of the pilot reform of real estate tax, the real estate sales are expected to remain low. Similarly, The year-on-year growth rate of land transfer income will hover at a low level, and it is not ruled out that it will continue to decline in the short term.
Land transfer fees account for a large part of the total revenue of most local governments, and many cities rely on land transfer income to make up for the gap between revenue and expenditure. According to wind statistics, the local land transfer income soared from 50.7 billion yuan in 1998 to 8.4 trillion yuan in 2020, an increase of 165 times.
control materials are more flexible and accurate
Recently, several cities have introduced policies to stimulate the sales of the real estate market. The relevant stimulus policies mainly focus on relaxing sales restrictions, reducing down payment and increasing the number of talents to buy houses.
Institutional people believe that in the future, there may be a wide range of deregulation policies on the demand side, and the "implementation of policies for cities" will be used more flexibly.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) chief economist Mingming said that at present, residents have poor expectations for house prices and strong wait-and-see mood for house purchase. In addition, the "three red lines" of real estate financing and concentration management restrictions still exist, and real estate enterprises are under great pressure and have weak willingness to leverage. In the future, the policy will certainly boost residents' confidence in house purchase through various measures and try to reverse the current situation, but the principles of "trust but not lifting", "housing and housing not speculation" and "three stability" will not change.
Combined with the latest statement of the government work report, Mingming believes that the real estate regulation will be more flexible and accurate in the future. On the one hand, we will continue to "implement policies for the city" and "virtuous circle". On the other hand, we will speed up the implementation and promotion of the affordable rental housing plan. It is expected that the macro indicators of real estate will gradually appear inflection points this year, and the demand side will improve accordingly.
The policy of extending credit will further appear in various forms According to the Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) report, the probability of interest rate and reserve requirement reduction will increase in the future, and the amount of housing loans and local demand side policy support will continue to increase. Historically, when the medium and long-term loans of new residents show negative growth year-on-year, they usually last for a long time (24 months and 16 months). Therefore, more policy efforts are needed to reverse the inertia. It is expected that the monetary policy will still be in the relaxation window period in March and April, and the probability of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates will increase. The loan cycle and lending rate continued to improve.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) report predicts that under the pressure of supply and demand, the mortgage interest rate still has a significant downward space. Through the further deregulation of the pricing end, it will stimulate the heating up of residents' demand for house purchase, and then play a role in stabilizing the sales of the real estate market.
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