Recently, the soaring price of refined oil in China has made many netizens interested in buying new energy models. However, according to the financial report of China Central Television, since March, nearly 20 new energy vehicle enterprises have announced price increases, involving nearly 40 models, ranging from 1000 yuan to tens of thousands of yuan.
“At the beginning of this year, the price of new energy (models) increased, but the increase was different. According to preliminary statistics, including the new forces of car manufacturing, Chinese brands, joint venture brands and imported brands, they were all within the scope of price increase, with the range of price increase ranging from 1% to 10%.” In an interview with the media, a new energy vehicle salesperson in Beijing said that this round of price rise in the new energy vehicle market is mainly divided into two situations: one is the simple price rise of products, and the other is that some models have increased the product configuration and therefore raised the price.
According to incomplete statistics by the reporter of the daily economic news, up to now, the prices of new energy models of Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng automobile, Nezha automobile, GAC AIAN, Feifan automobile, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Euler, SAIC GM Wuling, Volkswagen, Zero run automobile, polar krypton, geometry automobile, Ford, Weima automobile, Roewe and other brands have announced price increases, It covers most mainstream models in the market.
In fact, the recent price rise of new energy vehicles began at the end of last year. At the approaching stage of the time node of the decline of subsidies in 2022, car companies have successively announced that they will raise the price of their new energy models. However, some people believe that the deeper reason behind it may be the rising price of raw materials for power batteries of new energy vehicles.
Take lithium carbonate as an example. According to the data of business agency, on March 10, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China has reached 491000 yuan / ton. On December 28, 2020, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was only 54600 yuan / ton. This means that the price of lithium carbonate has increased eightfold in less than a year and a halfP align = “center” source: Business Club
In addition, the prices of raw materials required for other power batteries also rose sharply. According to the data of business society, on March 13, the cobalt commodity index was 203.06, up 190.75% from the lowest point of 69.84 on July 5, 2016; On March 14, the average quotation of cobalt in Shanghai metal mesh (250kg / barrel, 99.95%) was 565000 yuan / ton, and the price continued to remain high.
According to the data of IHS Markit, the price of lithium-ion battery increased by about 10% ~ 20% in the late 2021. According to the data of Bloomberg New Energy Finance (bnef), by the end of 2021, the average price of global lithium-ion battery pack was US $132 / kWh (about 840 yuan).
In this context, the rising cost of raw materials for power batteries has also made it difficult for some new energy models to make a profit. Even the person in charge of a car enterprise frankly said: “sell one at a loss.”P align = “center” Image Source: screenshot of China Central Television financial report
“We have achieved the best cost sharing, but the key reason for stopping receiving orders is the loss. The price of raw materials continues to rise, and the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will drop by 30% in 2022, which puts the black cat and white cat in a difficult position. Now we have to lose 10000 yuan for each car sold.” Dong Yudong, CEO of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) Euler brand, once said, “taking into account the national subsidies for new energy vehicles and the rising trend of raw material prices, Euler black and white cats will lose nearly 17000 yuan per car sold by 2023.”
Dong Yang, vice president of China electric vehicle hundred people’s Association, also said: “the price rise of raw materials is too large this time, and it is difficult to absorb all the rise by relying on one link of the industrial chain alone.” In the early stage, it seems that the price of cars will not be higher than that of cars in the new energy market. Therefore, there is little room for the price increase of new energy vehicles. The sales volume of new energy vehicles may decline more than that of new energy vehicles two years agoP align = “center” Image Source: screenshot of China Central Television financial report
It is worth mentioning that some netizens expressed different views on the above new energy vehicle enterprises’ statement of “losing money by selling cars”. Some netizens said, “carbon points (car enterprises) don’t mention it”, “earn points! Points make more money than selling cars.”P align = “center” Image Source: Sina Weibo
The “points” referred to in the netizen’s message is the “double points” policy in China’s “measures for the parallel management of average fuel consumption of passenger car enterprises and points of new energy vehicles”, which are generally referred to as “fuel consumption points” and “new energy points” in the industry. Since enterprises producing more fuel vehicles need to purchase “new energy points” to offset “fuel consumption points”, the “new energy points” itself has actual transaction value and has become an important profit source for some new energy vehicle enterprises.
Relevant data show that in 2018, new energy integral order transactions were mainly concentrated within 1000 yuan / minute; In 2019, the transaction unit price of nearly 90% orders shall not exceed 500 yuan; In 2020, the unit price of more than 50% of orders is higher than 1000 yuan, some exceed 3000 yuan, and the average transaction unit price is 1204 yuan / min. By 2021, the trading price of points will further rise, with an average unit price of about 2100 yuan.
When the price of new energy vehicle points soared all the way, many enterprises holding a large number of new energy vehicle points made a lot of money. According to the financial report of ideal automobile, it sold about 70000 positive points of new energy vehicles in 2021, with a revenue of 200 million yuan, equivalent to 2857 yuan per point; According to the financial report of Weilai automobile, it sold about 200000 positive points of new energy vehicles in 2021, with a revenue of 517 million yuan, equivalent to 2585 yuan per point.
However, this situation changed in 2022. In June 2020, the Ministry of industry and information technology revised the measures for the parallel management of average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle points of passenger vehicle enterprises, which made it clear that the assessment requirements for the proportion of new energy vehicle points from 2021 to 2023 were 14%, 16% and 18% respectively. According to the regulations, only when the new energy points of car enterprises reach a certain standard can they obtain positive new energy points.
In addition, the corresponding points of models with different mileage are also changing. In previous years, electric vehicles with a range of 100 kilometers can get 2 points. For example, with the sales volume of Hongguang miniev, SAIC GM Wuling got 440000 in 2021. However, the newly revised policy shows that from 2021 to 2023, the maximum score of pure electric single vehicle is reduced from the previous 5 points to 3.4 points. For example, Wuling Hongguang miniev with a range of 120km can get 2 points / vehicle in 2020, but now its single vehicle score has decreased by 62.5% and can only get 0.75 points.
“The whole point market is oversupplied. The expected trading price of points has indeed decreased.” “However, this year’s’ double points’ trading market has not been opened. Various manufacturers are only in the stage of inquiry. Therefore, the actual price is unknown,” Shenzhen road quoted relevant people in the industry as saying
Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information joint committee, believes that the price of new energy vehicles is falling, which has a great impact on products with low price, while it has a relatively small impact on medium and high-end brands with high price.
