Key investment points
Nuclear energy has the characteristics of low-carbon and high efficiency. It is suitable to be used as high-quality base load energy, which is of great importance under the “double carbon” goal. Compared with other major energy sources, nuclear energy has the characteristics of low carbon, stability and high efficiency, which is suitable for the development of high-quality base load energy. In the opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on completely, accurately and comprehensively implementing the new development concept and doing a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization and the action plan for carbon peak before 2030, nuclear power is regarded as one of the important means for the development of non fossil energy. On the one hand, from the perspective of power supply structure, the proportion of China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) in 2020 is only 4.8%, significantly lower than 9.52% of the global average level, and there is still much room for improvement; On the other hand, China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) power generation increased from 1.9% in 2011 to 4.8% in 2020. With the electrification of terminal energy consumption and the structural adjustment of superimposed power supply, the importance of nuclear energy as a non fossil energy is highlighted, and the proportion will continue to rise.
Third generation nuclear power: the restart of nuclear power approval opens the “positive” development stage, and the third generation unit is becoming the China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) main model. In 2019, China ended the “zero approval” status of nuclear power from 2016 to 2018, and 6 / 4 / 5 units were approved from 2019 to 2021. In the 2021 government work report, it was proposed to “actively and orderly develop nuclear power on the premise of ensuring safety”. The China Nuclear Energy Industry Association predicted that China’s independent third-generation nuclear power is expected to steadily advance according to the approval rhythm of 6-8 units per year, and the policy of active and orderly development is gradually being fulfilled.
Fourth generation nuclear power: some of China’s fourth generation nuclear power technologies are leading in the world, and the comprehensive application of nuclear power opens up imagination.
The fourth generation nuclear power has the characteristics of inherent safety and improving the utilization efficiency of nuclear fuel. Among them, China’s R & D Progress in high temperature gas cooled reactor and sodium cooled fast reactor is in the forefront of the world. Under the new generation of nuclear power technology, nuclear energy is expected to surpass the role of providing only electricity. Through various comprehensive utilization forms such as nuclear hydrogen production, high-temperature process heat, nuclear heating and seawater desalination, it will play a great role in ensuring the sustainable development of global energy and water security, and open enough imagination space for the comprehensive utilization of nuclear energy in the future.
Spent nuclear fuel: the demand for disposal is urgent, and the first set of projects is being promoted. In its reply to the proposal of the National People’s Congress, the National Energy Administration mentioned that a million KW nuclear power unit will unload 20-25 tons of spent fuel every year. According to the scale of 53.26 million KW nuclear power units in operation by the end of 2021, it is estimated that China will produce about 1065.2-1331.5 tons of spent fuel every year. China established the “closed cycle” route of nuclear fuel in the 1980s, and the processing capacity of the first set of reprocessing facilities currently in the construction cycle is only 200 tons / year. Spent fuel reprocessing has full development opportunities under the urgent needs of the continuous development of nuclear power and the continuous accumulation of spent fuel.
Relevant beneficiary targets: benefiting from the gradual realization of the positive development of the third generation, the fourth generation and spent fuel disposal, the prospect of the nuclear energy application industry chain is expected to pick up. Nuclear energy application is a typical heavy asset industry. It can obtain high-quality cash flow during the operation period. It is expected to usher in a period of development opportunities under the background of carbon neutrality by taking advantage of the advantages of high hours, low cost of kwh electricity, low carbon, stability and efficiency. Relevant beneficiaries include: nuclear power operation China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , Cgn Power Co.Ltd(003816) , Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ; Nuclear power equipment Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co.Ltd(002438) , Harbin Electric Corporation Jiamusi Electric Machine Co.Ltd(000922) , Lanzhou Ls Heavy Equipment Co.Ltd(603169) , Suzhou Hailu Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002255) ; Construction of nuclear power station China Nuclear Engineering & Construction Corporation Limited(601611) .
Risk warning: the risk that the construction progress of nuclear power plant is less than expected, policy risk and nuclear safety risk.
