Industry status
CTR released the data of advertising market (excluding Internet) in January 2022: the cost of all media advertising increased by 1.9% year-on-year and decreased by 13.2% month on month. Among them, the cost of elevator LCD / Elevator poster / cinema video advertising increased by 30.7% / 25.2% / 1.3% year-on-year.
Commentary
In January, the advertising market increased by 1.9% year-on-year. In January 2022, the cost of all media advertising increased by 1.9% year-on-year and decreased by 13.2% month on month. We judge that it is mainly due to the relatively high base number caused by the high marketing heat of December Festival. According to the media, the cost of elevator LCD / Elevator poster publishing in January increased by 30.7% / 25.2% year-on-year, maintaining a high prosperity level; Cinema video media advertising increased by 1.3% year-on-year.
The high prosperity of ladder media market continued, with double-digit growth year-on-year. In terms of elevator media, in January 2022, the cost of elevator LCD and elevator poster increased by 30.7% and 25.2% year-on-year. Looking back, since May 2020, the year-on-year growth rate of monthly magazine cost in elevator media market has basically maintained a double-digit or above growth rate, reflecting the growth toughness of elevator media. The regular rise of Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) magazine price on January 1 also helped. Since March, the epidemic situation has been repeated across the country. The epidemic prevention measures have an impact on the normal publication, and the economic pressure will also affect the short-term advertising demand of advertisers. We expect that the pressure on the growth of advertising revenue of 1q22 ladder media will increase, and we suggest paying attention to the normal operation ability. Cinema video media increased by 1.3% at the same time. According to the data of Yien, the national box office excluding service fees reached 2.455 billion yuan in January, a year-on-year change of - 19.1% / + 19.9% / - 20.9% compared with 2021 / 2020 / 2019. Looking forward to 2022, we believe that in the short term, despite the accelerated filing of imported films and the increasing supply of films, the repeated epidemic has brought uncertainty to the operation of cinemas in some regions, which may further affect the recovery of normal operation, or have a certain impact on the cinema video media market.
Consumer advertisers have built a basic platform of ladder media, and the beverage industry is active. In January, advertisers in the beverage industry ranked first in the cost of elevator LCD / Elevator poster publishing, with a year-on-year growth rate of 232.6% / 96.5% respectively. In terms of sub categories, the advertising of dairy products (Yili, Mengniu, etc.) has strong sustainability and large scale, and the advertising of tea products (small pot tea, bamboo leaf green, pinpinxiang, etc.) is active. In addition, food and alcoholic drinks ranked second in the elevator LCD / Elevator poster advertiser industry, with a year-on-year growth rate of 74.6% / 19.4% respectively. According to advertisers, Three Squirrels Inc(300783) (food) ranks second in elevator LCD brand, with a year-on-year increase of more than 1000%; Luzhou (alcoholic drinks) ranked eighth in elevator posters, with a year-on-year increase of 41.7%. In terms of new brands, among the top 10 published examples of elevator LCD in January, 4 / 2 new brands were launched on the same / month on month basis; There are 3 / 4 new elevator posters on the same / month on month basis. In terms of cinema media, there were 9 new releases year-on-year, and the top 3 advertisers were BMW / BMW Mini / olan Little Red Riding Hood. We believe that consumer advertisers such as beverage, food and personal products build the basic sector of elevator media advertising to highlight the value of elevator media.
Valuation and recommendations
Maintain and cover the company's profit forecast and rating. We believe that Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) the current customer structure is more stable, the point coverage is more comprehensive, and the asset quality is more solid. We have realized the quality upgrading under the structural optimization and adjustment, and the normalized performance is stable and the growth is expected. We reiterate that Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) outperforms the industry rating.
Risk
The macroeconomic downturn has dragged down the willingness of advertising, and the competition pattern of elevator media industry has deteriorated.
