Key investment points:
On March 14, all major indexes in the market fell to a large extent, including the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.60% and the gem fell by 3.56%; In terms of size, the CSI 500 fell 2.33%, while the CSI 300 fell 3.06%. In terms of turnover, the volume of transactions between the two cities decreased significantly. The turnover of the two cities throughout the day was 969.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 80.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day to less than trillion yuan. In terms of funds going north, a large-scale net outflow of 14.409 billion yuan was made throughout the day. In terms of industries, shenwanyi industries fell to varying degrees, with food and beverage, commercial retail, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and social service industries leading the decline, all exceeding 4.0%, while the decline in national defense, military industry, medicine and biology, real estate and non bank financial industries was relatively small.
The main reasons for the decline of A-share market on the 14th are as follows: (1) Hong Kong stocks fell sharply, raising the market risk aversion. Last Friday, zhonggai shares entered the “scheduled delisting list” of the US SEC. Zhonggai shares were greatly affected by this. At present, the impact of this incident has not completely subsided, and it also has a certain impact on China’s market sentiment; (2) Large scale outflow of foreign capital reduces market risk appetite. On the 14th, the large-scale net outflow of funds going north was 14.4 billion yuan, the second largest outflow since this year, which also suppressed the market risk appetite to a certain extent; (3) The overweight of epidemic control in some areas has triggered the market’s concern about molecular fundamentals. At present, the epidemic situation in China is spreading at many points. Zhang Wenhong said on the 14th that “China’s epidemic situation is in the early stage of exponential rise”. Superimposed with the overweight epidemic control measures in Shenzhen and other places, the market is worried about the temporary slowdown of economic fundamentals.
In terms of market future judgment, the market risk of epidemic factors may be limited. On March 12, the management reiterated that “the general strategy of ‘external defense input and internal defense rebound’ and the general policy of ‘dynamic zeroing’ will not be shaken and relaxed”, which means that the epidemic prevention policies will be strictly implemented again, and the large-scale risk of epidemic spread is expected to be gradually reduced. In terms of the economic impact of the epidemic, due to this year’s GDP 5.5% The target of about 5% is relatively clear. The economic impact caused by the spread of the epidemic will be hedged by the steady growth policy. The greater the economic impact of the epidemic, the greater the strength of the steady growth policy and the longer the policy duration.
Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about the market risk caused by the epidemic. At present, the market is more troubled by the external uncertainty, which leads to the continuous outflow of funds going north, while the risk avoidance behavior of domestic capital aggravates the market fluctuation to a certain extent. Therefore, in the short term, we continue the view of the weekly report that there is still the possibility of repetition of external risk factors and domestic risk aversion, or promote the repeated process of the bottom of the market. However, in the medium and long term, the expectation that the steady growth policy will promote the recovery of enterprise prosperity is relatively clear, and it is expected to bring the low point of enterprise profitability upward. The market panic and the venting process of risk aversion factors will probably bring low allocation opportunities within the year.
In terms of allocation, based on the 5.5% GDP target and sufficient financial “food and grass”, we can pay attention to one of the important starting points of “stable growth” – investment opportunities in the new infrastructure sector, and focus on the digital economy; In addition, we can also pay attention to the rebound opportunities of the pharmaceutical sector under the adjustment of epidemic prevention mode.
Risk tip: overseas market fluctuation risk, economic downturn exceeding expectations, and global epidemic development exceeding expectations.
